Facing ISIL Propaganda, Russia Denies its Syria Campaign is a “Holy War”

[unhappycamper]

http://www.juancole.com/2015/10/facing-propaganda-campaign.html

Facing ISIL Propaganda, Russia Denies its Syria Campaign is a “Holy War”
By Juan Cole | Oct. 5, 2015

Remember when George W. Bush lapsed and called his Iraq War a “crusade?” He had to back off that religious rhetoric really quickly because he needed Muslim allies.

Now the Russian Orthodox Church has made a similar error.

Archpriest Vsevolod Chaplin said that his church supports Vladimir Putin’s aerial assaults on ISIL. He said, “The fight with terrorism is a holy battle and today our country is perhaps the most active force in the world fighting it. . . This decision corresponds with international law, the mentality of our people and the special role that our country has always played in the Middle East.”

~snip~

Predictably, the Muslim fundamentalists on social media grabbed hold of these statements to depict the Syrian intervention as a holy war against Islam. The Saudi public was especially exercised.

[bemildred]

1. Hmmmm. We need to jump right into the middle of this.

[MisterP]

3. by 2017 we'll have discovered that IS isn't that bad: why, they say to ignore

the ulema and any theological precedents--so Protestant! so modern! so ... American

and besides it's those nasty peshmerga who've been doing most of the honor-killings and infibulations anyway: time to give Rojava (not as egalitarian and Edenic as Mickey Z led us to believe) and Putin that black eye we wanted so long

and there's a nice womyn-lead genocidal pseudosocialist death cult just waiting in the wings!

[Hortensis]

2. Oh, yes, please, we want a piece of this crusade too! YES, I remember Bush II

calling it a crusade, UnhappyCamper. I was walking away from the TV and it stopped me mid-stride with one foot in the air -- "WHAT did he say??!!" I also heard it twice after in the next couple of days before they shut the fool up.

In any case, I'm guessing Obama's smiling and Putin is definitely not.

[Hortensis]

4. I came by to see if you guys were talking about Russia's cruise

missiles launched from "home" into the Middle East. A lousy 900 miles and a message I'm guessing virtually everyone in the entire region has received?

[bemildred]

5. That's just for show, the cruise missiles. Not really interesting except to hardware geeks.

What's on your mind?

[Hortensis]

6. Oh, that was it, Bemildred. Have a nice day.

[bemildred]

7. My pleasure. nt

[bemildred]

8. Syria crisis: Russia's strategy and endgame?

In the last few days, Russia has also begun to use long-range cruise missiles fired from warships in the Caspian Sea. Like many other Western analysts, Michael Kofman believes that there was a large element of bravado here.

"It was a demonstration of long-range precision attack capability, to show they have some parity with the US, and of course a publicity coup. There was no tangible military necessity for launching pricey missiles over 1,500 km from the Caspian, especially since Russia has already tested this missile's operation previously with the Caspian Flotilla. The strike was a show, and an effective one, but the same results could easily have been achieved with Russian aviation in place."

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34474362

[Hortensis]

9. That's interesting. I read that some Iraqi Shiite conservatives are delighted

with this escalation, seeing Putin as sympathetic to Shia and looking to "Hajji Putin" to save them from Sunni Daesh. Iran, of course, is Shia, and Syria's ruling clique's religion is very similar to Shia.

Of course, there's conspiracy theory now spread throughout the Middle East that the U.S. created ISIL for our own benefit.

Although "population" attitudes toward Russia's power play are what I was thinking of, one interesting foreign policy article I was reading says Saudi Arabia's greatest geopolitical rival, Russia, is intent on strengthening its greatest enemy, Iran, and overturning the region's balance of power (such as it is). The article was about the increasing destabilization of Saudi Arabia, itself, and potential collapse. Potential religious warring is only one of many factors, but very significant, of course.

As you say, "We really need to jump right in the middle of this."

[bemildred]

10. Right, Putin is there to help the (muslim group of your choice).

They will find that Putin is there to help Putin and Russia and they had better do as they are told. He will not tolerate their stupid wars. He may well get his ass in a sling in the process, I don't really know how he thinks, how aggressive he will be, but what I can discern and what I know of his history says he is not impulsive, stupid, lazy, or uninformed. So hard to say. If he doesn't get a swelled head (that's funny, isn't it, he's practically Trump in his public persona) and do something stupid or send in ground troops, he can always dial it back.

All he really needs is the coastal strip and Lebanon. If his air cover plus militias startegy works well, I expect a push up the Euphrates to meet a push up through Ildib and along the S. Turkish border, which he will seal. He may leave the SE desert alone.

The regional combatants of all stripes can be relied on to continue obsessed with killing each other, and Putin will play them against each other as long as they remain obsessed.

Israel seems to like the idea at the moment, and he may well keep them safe, but at the cost of their "deterrence", the will lose their hegemony. But maybe they will think that is worth it and anyway they have no choice unless he fucks up.

Yeah, Saudi Arabia is somewhat opaque, and people have been predicting their collapse for some time now, me included, but the new guys seems to be one of those obsessed people I mentioned and I do think they are in deep shit, and I don't expect Putin is sympathtic to their wishes, but I doubt he feels the need to do anything. I expect South is one of the directions that the jihadis who run will go. The question is whether Putin wants to kill them all or let some run. I expect he will let Erdogan have a dose of his own medicine in the North, but he may work things out with the Sauds if they get their shit together, because of oil, and so he can use them to keep Iran in line.

[Hortensis]

11. So you don't think Russia will get mired as in Afghanistan?

You obviously know a lot more about the strategic moves than I do. From a more distant glance, a problem with Putin's plans for that coastal strip is I'm pretty sure the people there also need it and see it as theirs. They may even remember Russia's historic aggression and that it has been beat back a number of times.

There's no end of interesting stuff about the Middle East mess, but everything I read says it's going to get horrible before it gets better and we can't fix it, no one can, maybe help and encourage a bit here and there. Global warming and disappearing fresh water would probably guarantee that even if religion was not involved. I am very concerned that our little grandsons, older ones 9 now, not end up drafted into a religiously stoked war or to protect some central asian pipeline.

Speaking of, I did read that taking the Khorasan region is a major end-times goal for ISIS, and coinkidinkly it's also of great interest to China, Russia, and Iran because of energy reserves, position, etc. Also to us...

[bemildred]

12. Only if they get too aggressive.

Or if things drag on too long. As long as he sticks with air power plus millitias I don't see why he can't stop anyplace he likes, and as Happyslug says "declare victory". He should not have to leave all those air assets in Syria once he has degraded enough of the hardware and ammo the jihadis have and makes sure his proxies are well supplied. The Iranians have plenty of unoccupied young men.

Now the Iranians in Alawite land might well provoke a reaction, they already have, but I don't thinlk Putin will let them stay. Some of their politicians are calling Syria one of their provinces now, so ...

I expect horrible, it is horrible.

The Russians have been in Latakia and Taurus for a long time, so unless they greatly increase their contingent there, I don't see it as a problem. Assad has nowhere to go and the Iranians will eat him too. Putin is his best bet. Putin has somethng to gain by showing loyalty to his minions from time to time, and Assad and Russia go way back. And anyway they are all euphoric right now. Like Iran.

Your comment about the relevance of climate change is much to the point. That is the fertile ground in which unrest spreads and grows. I've been waiting for population movements to start since 2011. The Syrian war started with food riots. There are other places in the Middle East with similar issues, and guess where they get their grain? Ukraine and Russia. The Chinese are interested in Ukraine for the same reason, buying farmland. That has a lot to do with al Sisi's enthusiastic attitude about what Putin is doing, he cannot afford to piss off Putin.

I heard that about Korasan, but don't pay much attention to it. I've been watching Ukraine closely since about 6 months before Yanukovich got kicked out, but mostly at the international level, it is not an interesting war, unless you like engineered stalemates. I think that will "freeze" and Poroshenko will eat his peas at least as long as Putin is saving the EU from being swamped with refugees and "restoring order" in the Middle East..

I gotta go.

[bemildred]

15. Egypt wheat reserves to last until mid-March - Supply minister

CAIRO, Oct 10 (Aswat Masriya) – The strategic reserve of domestic and imported wheat for the production of subsidized bread is sufficient until mid-March, said Minister of Supply and Internal Trade Khaled Hanafi on Saturday.

Egypt's state grain buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), had announced yesterday the purchase of 180,000 tonnes of wheat in a tender for Nov. 11-20 shipment, from Romania and Russia.

Hanafi said it purchased 120,000 tonnes of Russian wheat and 60,000 tons of wheat from Romania at an average price of $ 207.34 cents per tonnes.

Egypt is the world’s largest wheat importer, according to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).

http://en.aswatmasriya.com/news/view.aspx?id=a6f8b64a-3f5a-458e-8962-d5cc07819e64

[bemildred]

13. This guy:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/113312569#post6

And this one:

http://atimes.com/2015/10/russia-outflanks-turkey-in-syria/

[Hortensis]

14. Thanks, Bemildred.