Syria poses challenges for Putin

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A list of stories interesting for what they want to fend off and how completely they disagree.

In the mountains above Sochi in southern Russia, the marble halls and panoramic terraces of the Krasnaya Polyana hotel were almost empty.

Built for a G8 summit in 2014 that was called off because of the Ukraine crisis, and still weeks away from this winter's ski season, the resort had the look of an extravagant white elephant.

But for the Russian government it is a useful backdrop for occasions like the annual Valdai meeting where President Vladimir Putin and other top Russian officials can showcase their views in exchanges with foreign scholars.

This year the conversation was dominated by Syria and Russia's intentions there.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34613514

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1. Russia Ready to Cooperate With U.S. on Syria

MOSCOW—Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Saturday that Washington's refusal to cooperate with Moscow on bombing sorties in Syria was a mistake and that the Kremlin was ready to provide support for the opposition Free Syrian Army, state news agency RIA reported.

"The American refusal to coordinate its antiterrorist campaign over Syria was a big mistake," Mr. Lavrov said in an interview with the Russia 1 channel. "We are deeply ready for such coordination."

Russia has been running daily bombing sorties out of a base at Latakia, Syria, against the enemies of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, its long-standing ally, since Sept. 30.

Accusations from the U.S. that Russia's bombing campaign is targeting CIA-backed rebels more than Islamic State have heightened tensions between Moscow and Washington. Mr. Lavrov said that he wanted the U.S.-backed Free Syrian Army, which has been fighting against Mr. Assad since 2011, to share intelligence with Moscow.

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/russia-ready-to-cooperate-with-us-on-syria-20151025-00055

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2. Busting the myth of Assad’s army

Statements on the Syrian Arab Army have resurfaced, and there have been recent Russian and Syrian reports on the army’s battles against the opposition in Syria. In reality, the armed group these reports refer to is made up of a mixture of foreign powers who are carrying out most of the fighting in Syria on behalf of the Syrian regime.

These foreign parties mainly include members of Hezbollah, Iraqi League of the Righteous and the Iranian Quds Brigade. They also include Afghani Shiite Fatimid militias and others who have been recruited and trained to serve the Iranian regime’s agenda in the Middle East. These are the parties comprising the Syrian Arab Army. This is the army the Syrian official statements have recently referred to.

The Russian foreign minister once taunted the Free Syrian Army, asking for its address to write to it. He did so to voice doubt it actually exists and to imply that those fighting Bashar Assad are terrorists and that everyone who belongs to the opposition is actually affiliated with Daesh and Al-Qaeda. Two days ago, the Russian envoy to Saudi Arabia described the Syrian opposition as fragile. The Saudis confidently responded to that by asking Moscow to point to the Syrian Arab Army, which they claim to be supporting on ground.

For more than a year and a half now, military experts have confirmed that there’s no trace of this army as many have either defected from its ranks since the revolution erupted or have been killed during the war. This is in addition to the fact that many of those who have continued to serve in the army have been marginalized because most of them are Sunnis whose loyalty to the regime is doubted, and are hence supplied with little amount of fuel and ammunition as the regime fears they may defect and escape to the opposing camp.

http://www.arabnews.com/columns/news/825851

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3. Analysis: Russia-Iran alliance tactical, not strategic

Christian Russia and Shi’ite Iran’s military alliance to help keep Syrian President Bashar Assad in power is fraught with underlying tension, which could be exploited by Israel or the US.

Iran’s revolutionary expansionist agenda and its targeting of Israel is at odds with Russia’s long-term goals in the region.

Russia seeks to solidify Assad’s regime in an Alawite mini-state in the face of a Sunni onslaught funded by Gulf states.

Russia President Vladimir Putin’s military buildup and activity in Syria caught the West off guard just as he did in other hot spots, such as Ukraine and Georgia. Putin is also filling in the vacuum of a retreating US in the region.

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Analysis-Russia-Iranian-alliance-tactical-not-strategic-430057

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4. An Israeli Arab’s Flight to the ISIS Dark Side

TEL AVIV – The Arab town of Jaljuliya in central Israel was shocked on Sunday morning to learn that, according to the Israeli army, a local resident paraglided into Syria in order to join ISIS-affiliated rebel forces.

“Jaljuliya is a very normal city, we are within the Green Line, and we believe very strongly in coexistence,” said Ali Arar, a Jaljuliya resident. He said that he, like all of his neighbors, was surprised to hear of the news, since the man, whose name is still under an Israeli gag order, was “beloved by everyone in the village, and really respected everyone.”

The 23-year-old flyer originally was thought to have been carried into Syrian territory by the morning’s strong winds, though military investigations later confirmed that the crossing via Israel’s northern border on the Golan Heights was intentional. Some reports on the Web sympathetic to ISIS claimed an “Israeli pilot” had been captured.

Witnesses in the Israeli-held Golan Heights uploaded videos to social media of Israeli drones and war planes circling the area and dropping flares in what the military later said was an intensive search effort to reveal the man's place of landing.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/10/25/an-israeli-arab-s-flight-to-the-isis-dark-side.html

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5. Russia intervened militarily in Syria because regime is losing grip -- Turkish PM

ISTANBUL, Oct 26 (KUNA) -- Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has indicated that Russia has intervened in Syria because its local ally, Bashar Al-Assad's regime, is losing control over bulk of the country's territories.

The prime minister, in televised remarks aired late on Sunday, said Al-Assad sought the help of Iraqi militias, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, and lastly the Russian forces because he was losing his stranglehold on the country.

Russia is aware that such a regime that controls only 14 percent of the Syrian lands is incapable of restoring stability to the country, said Davutoglu, also noting that the Russian intervention "is not a sign of the regime's might; rather it indicates its bankruptcy." The Turkish premier expressed his belief that Moscow signaled its readiness to cooperate with the opposition Syrian Free Army because it is aware that the regime in Damascus could not crush the armed opposition.

The regime has sought help of Hezbollah, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and the Iraqi militias because it can no longer control the country, he added.

http://www.kuna.net.kw/ArticleDetails.aspx?id=2467573&Language=en

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6. Unlike Washington, Russia Makes Every Effort to Bring Peace to Middle East

Moscow's diplomatic and military efforts in Syria offer hope for the country and the whole Middle East which have been plagued by wars and destruction largely as a result of Washington's military engagement in the region, Die Freie Welt observed.

It is especially remarkable that Russia managed to produce a major positive change with a limited aerial operation aimed at assisting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in his fight against terrorists, the German Internet newspaper added. The operation was launched in late September following a formal request from Damascus.

The Russian campaign in Syria has major implications beyond the country and the region.

"Putin's support for the Assad government will determine the fate of all of us. Provided, however, that the Russian president is successful," Die Freie Welt stated.

http://sputniknews.com/politics/20151026/1029104170/us-russia-syria-middle-east-peace-process.html

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7. . nt

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8. Rebel Defiance, Relief as Assad Forces Get Bogged Down

GAZIANTEP, TURKEY—

At early light they come, the Russian warplanes - mostly just silver flashes in the sky, sometimes roaringly close - unleashing "dumb" munitions and guided missiles depending on the target, scorching the countryside south of Aleppo.

They are followed by mechanized units of the Syrian army backed by Iranian-trained Shi'ite fighters mainly from Iraq, but some Afghans, too, who will be rewarded with Iranian passports when their enlistment finishes, if they survive.

In the flat countryside the regime has the edge during the day; but at night or whenever the jets are absent insurgents reclaim territory they retreated from hours earlier, staking out temporary defensive positions, prompting new rounds of aerial bombing heralded by the dawn.

“The ground offensive is the biggest we have seen in the Aleppo countryside in two years,” says Abdul Rahman, a commander with the Ahfad Omer battalion, part of the larger First Brigade, a U.S.-backed secular militia.

http://www.voanews.com/content/rebel-defiance-relief-as-assad-forces-get-bogged-down/3022856.html

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9. Syria: Russia’s peace efforts acquire gravitas

The sudden visit by the US Secretary of State John Kerry on Sunday to Saudi Arabia and his meeting with King Salman at his ranch outside Riyadh can be seen as a swift follow-up on the phone conversation he held with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov the previous day.

Lavrov had initiated the phone call to Kerry, which followed their meeting in Vienna on Friday together with their Turkish and Saudi counterparts. Lavorv also held telephonic conversations on Saturday with his Iranian and Egyptian counterparts.

Evidently, Lavrov and Kerry are engaged in what increasingly seems a combined mutually reinforcing effort to flesh out a peace plan that finds acceptance with the external players who are aligned with them while also not entirely in sync with them as well as with the Syrian parties concerned. The brainpower could be Lavrov’s, but Moscow’s priority is to work with Washington to the extent the latter is willing – the common ground is steadily expanding – rather than indulge in one-upmanship.

In bits and pieces, the contours of a peace plan could be emerging out of these hectic consultations. Consider the following statements made by President Vladimir Putin last Thursday in Sochi (on the eve of the meeting between Lavrov and Kerry in Vienna):

I am sure that the Russian military operations [in Syria] will have the necessary positive effect on the situation, helping Syrian authorities to create the conditions for subsequent actions in reaching a political settlement.

Here is what we believe we must do to support long-term settlement… First of all, free Syria and Iraq’s territories from terrorists… And to do that, we must join all forces – the Iraqi ad Syrian armies, Kurdish militia, various opposition groups that have actually made a real contribution to fighting terrorists – and coordinate the actions of countries within and outside of the region against terrorism.

Second, a military victory over the militants alone will… create conditions for the main thing, namely, the beginning of a political process with the participation of all healthy patriotic forces of the Syrian society… The collapse of Syrian government will only mobilize the terrorists. Right now, instead of undermining the Syrian authorities, we must strengthen them, revive them, by strengthening state institutions in the conflict zone.

Of course, the Syrian leadership must establish working contacts with those opposition forces, which are ready for dialogue. As far as I understood from the meeting with President Assad [on Tuesday]…, he is ready for such dialogue”.

http://atimes.com/2015/10/syria-russias-peace-efforts-acquire-gravitas/

[KoKo]

15. ...!

This sounds hopeful. And, clearly, Lavrov and Kerry have built what seems a positive relationship promoting diplomacy despite all the odds. It's getting harder to ignore the sufferings of hundreds of thousands of refugees and almost impossible for the countries taking them into cope without causing more suffering and riots in the streets from their angry citizens. Something's got to give--and it would be amazing if they could get a framework for an agreement that has real promise, given the countries they have to deal with. But, then, there's still that big Saudi problem.

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In essence, Assad has calibrated his stance following his talks with Putin in Moscow on Tuesday and is signaling he is on board to collaborate with Moscow’s efforts to kickstart the stalled political stance in tandem with the Russian military campaign against the terror groups.

These hectic diplomatic activities over the weekend could be leading, hopefully, to an expanded meeting of the “Vienna quartet” next Friday (which would also include Iran, Egypt, Jordan and Qatar) – provided of course “there is sufficient common ground to advance a meaningful political process”, to quote Kerry after the meeting in Vienna last Friday.

In sum, the indications available so far since Friday are that Kerry’s cautious optimism regarding the state of play is justified, when he said, “Diplomacy has a way of working through very difficult issues that seem to be absolutely contradictory and, on their face, begin at odds. And this is one of those issues where the statements clearly – and current positions – are at odds. But if we can get into a political process, then sometimes these things have a way of resolving themselves.”

The bottom line is that it will be problematic for the US administration in an election year to admit that its position on the removal of Assad as the first prerequisite of a Syrian peace process has proved to be a futile demand. On the other hand, an exit strategy becomes available only if the US were to pool efforts with Russia and is joined by Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. The Syrian opposition groups can be expected to accept almost any plan endorsed by these five countries.

All in all, therefore, paradoxical as it may seem at this point, the Russian military operations in Syria may have succeeded in opening the door leading to a political process in which the Assad regime also assumes a role.

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16. Perhaps too optimistic, a bit too much Putin-love.

But on the other hand there is no other option really, it's just all these political weasels can't get their minds around it until it starts to affect them.

I think the Sauds will play ball, I don't think they have any choice. The question is when will they know it?

Same with Erdogan.

But it can go on for a long time yet while they are making up their minds, and things can happen.

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17. Erdogan has an election coming too.

And Obama is coming to visit next month.

There is no telling what stupid shit Erdogan will get up to if he gets a win, and it could get really interesting if Erdogan loses power, he has made lots of enemies, done lots of dirty deals.

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10. I didn't think Syria could be more of a mess.

Russia and the US proved me wrong.

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11. Yep, I think "hideous" about covers it.

Right now the fog of war is pretty foggy too, but that is normal, everybody cranks up their propaganda organs.

Yemen is pretty hideous too. I'll bet the King wishes he could take it back.

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12. Bibi seems to be doing an excellent job of making a hideous mess in Israel too.

I had to stop posting or I'd be ranting all day.

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13. Bibi's a symptom of the mess, rather than a cause, imo.

Sure, he as a human being is toxic and reprehensible, but what we consider a bug is considered a feature elsewhere.

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14. True enough.

Not unlike our own Tea Party. They didn't get there by accident.