Kelly McParland: U.S. and Russia to convene talks offering a rare hint of progress in Syrian crisis

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Russia and the United States are to convene talks in Vienna on Friday in an effort to end the civil war in Syria. Despite sensible efforts to keep expectations low, the initiative marks a rare ray of hope in the vicious four-year bloodbath that has left at least 200,000 people dead and four million homeless.

In addition to Moscow and Washington the talks will include most of the key players in the quagmire that has sent floods of migrants heading to Europe and given rise to the brutalities of the Islamic State (ISIL). Perhaps most crucially, US Secretary of State John Kerry said an invitation has been extended to Iran, which Washington has previously shunned over its support for Syrian President Bashar al Assad and the terrorist group Hezbollah. Iran hasn’t accepted yet, and had previously ruled out new talks, but it has crucial interests in Syria and may come under pressure from Moscow to accept.

The advent of the talks leave no doubt that Russian President Vladimir Putin has fundamentally changed the dynamic of the conflict – and may in the end be able to claim credit for any progress in ending it. Despite fulminations in Washington – which warned that Moscow was blundering into a costly quagmire – Russia’s military intervention has strengthened Assad’s regime and given new impetus to efforts to bring about an end.

Backed by Russian jets, tanks and arms, Syrian forces have made significant advances, confronting rebel groups with an increased prospect of failure. Despite repeated assertions from the Obama administration that it would not get dragged into a ground war, Defence Secretary Ash Carter revealed Tuesday that the U.S. will take part in “direct action on the ground” and its troops “will be in harm’s way, no question about it.” Last week US commandoes joined Kurdish forces in a rescue attempt that freed dozens of hostages being held by ISIS.

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/kelly-mcparland-u-s-and-russia-to-convene-talks-offering-a-rare-hint-of-progress-in-syrian-crisis

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1. Mogherini says talked with Zarif on Syria

Tehran, Oct 29, IRNA -- Federica Mogherini, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice-President of the European Commission, tweets that she had on Wednesday held talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad-Javad Zarif on Syria.

http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81816196/

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2. Iran, Egypt, EU join key Syria summit in Vienna

A ministerial-level summit on the future of Syria that will start Oct. 29, less than a week after an initial four-way meeting, will bring together a wider range of countries, including ones with whom Turkey is at diplomatic loggerheads, as well as Iran.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry will attend the talks on Oct. 30, Egypt’s state news agency said.

Russia asked for participation in the talks to be widened to include both Egypt and Iran, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s closest regional ally.

Egypt’s decision to take part in the talks is the latest signal of warming relations between Russia and Egypt.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/iran-egypt-eu-join-key-syria-summit-in-vienna.aspx?pageID=238&nID=90445&NewsCatID=352

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3. What it means to invite Iran to key Syria talks

The invitation extended to Iran to attend the multi-party talks on Syria in the weekend signifies a profound shift in the stance of the United States and Saudi Arabia. For the US, this shift comes naturally as a logical sequence to the recently concluded nuclear agreement, but for Saudi Arabia it is a bitter pill to swallow that Iran is being recognized as a stakeholder in the future of a major Arab country, something that it has been loathe to concede.

The Saudis all along had feared that the nuclear deal would end Iran’s international isolation and unshackle it, enabling it to expand its activities and boost its influence in the region. Therefore, the fact that Riyadh has given way to US (and, possibly, Russian) entreaties to bring Iran into the talks shows Saudi weakness to some extent. On the other hand, it could also be that in the Saudi calculation, there could be useful fallouts for the resolution of the crisis in Yemen in which it is deeply entangled.

On the other hand, it is sound realism on the part of the US that Iran is invited to the negotiating table, given its presence on the ground in Syria and its great camaraderie with the Syrian leadership, aside its sheer capacity to make or mar any eventual settlement. The US, undoubtedly, has been eager to engage with Iran over the Middle Eastern issues, and working together on Syria would create mutual confidence to extend the cooperation to other issues as well in future, such as Yemen.

Iran is keeping its cards close to its chest on the Syrian question and surprises do lie ahead. To be sure, Iran works closely with Russia in the current phase of the Syrian conflict but at the same time it cannot be oblivious to the opportunity that lies ahead to project itself as a responsible member of the international community and as a factor of regional security and stability in a conflict that impacts the vital interests of the West.

http://atimes.com/2015/10/what-it-means-to-invite-iran-to-key-syria-talks/

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4. Pakistan, Iran vow to resolve Syria crisis through dialogue

ISLAMABAD: Advisor to the prime minister on Foreign Affairs, Sartaj Aziz, said on Wednesday that the involvement of Russia in the Syrian war is a sensitive matter and that Pakistan and Iran believe in resolving the Syria crisis through dialogue.

Addressing a joint press conference in Islamabad this evening with visiting Secretary of Supreme National Security Council of Iran, Ali Shamkhani, Sartaj said that Pakistan and Iran have agreed to enhance cooperation in trade, economy and counter-terrorism.

The PM’s advisor added that in view of the security scenario, the two countries have agreed to work together through closer coordination on controlling existing terrorist threats.

Speaking regarding the beef row in India, Iranian official Shamkhani said that religion cannot be taken away from people by banning sacrificing of animals.

http://www.thenews.com.pk/article-202252-Pakistan,-Iran-vow-to-resolve-Syria-crisis-through-dialogue

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5. Syria releases prominent activist jailed for over 3 years

BEIRUT — Syrian authorities released an award-winning human rights activist Monday after more than three years in jail in a rare good-will gesture by President Bashar Assad’s government amid intense diplomatic maneuvering to end the country’s civil war.

The release of Mazen Darwish was welcomed by activists as a positive development amid Syria’s daily carnage.

An outspoken critic of the government’s crackdown on protests that erupted against Assad’s rule in March 2011, Darwish became a symbol of the battle for human rights in Syria following his detention less than a year later.

Amnesty International said Darwish should never have been jailed in the first place and called on the government to halt its campaign targeting those who dare speak about the ‘‘appalling human rights violations’’ in Syria.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/world/2015/08/10/syria-releases-prominent-activist-jailed-for-over-years/zCGuQasEHFtnSY02BNE8eP/story.html

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6. Saudi participation in Syria talks aims to test Russian, Iranian will for peace - Saudi FM

RIYADH, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia will take part in talks on Syria in Vienna on Friday to test the willingness of Russia and Iran, the Syrian government's main backers, for a political solution to the conflict, Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said on Wednesday.

"The view of our partners...was that we should test the intentions of the Iranians and the Russians in arriving at a political solution in Syria, which we all prefer," al-Jubeir told a news conference in the Saudi capital Riyadh. (Reporting By Angus McDowall, Writing by Noah Browning; Editing by Angus MacSwan)

http://www.trust.org/item/20151028151026-qvh15/

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7. . nt

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8. Ex-mediator Annan sees chance of Syria peace in U.S.-Russia talks

Talks between Russia and the United States may produce a chance of peace in Syria, Kofi Annan, the former U.N. secretary-general who tried unsuccessfully to forge a deal to end the war in 2012, said on Tuesday.

"In this situation the role of Russia and the U.S. are key. If the two of them find a way of working effectively together and working with the others, we will find a solution.

"No war goes on forever," Annan told a packed audience of students and diplomats, including Lakhdar Brahimi, who succeeded him as the Syria mediator, but also quit after failing to forge agreement between the warring sides.

The United States and Russia will hold talks on Syria in Vienna on Friday, and have invited Iran, which is widely seen as a key part of any peace deal but which the United States refused to have at the table when Annan was presiding in 2012.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/27/us-mideast-crisis-syria-annan-idUSKCN0SL34W20151027

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9. Turkey fires at U.S.-allied Kurds in Syria, prime minister says

Notice they used artillery this time.

CAIRO — Turkey’s military fired on U.S.-allied Kurdish fighters in northern Syria in a bid to keep them from advancing toward the border, the Turkish prime minister said Tuesday.

The comments by Ahmet Davutoglu were the first time that Turkey has confirmed the use of force against ethnic Kurdish militias in neighboring Syria. The Turkish government — which is facing a Kurdish insurgency of its own at home — fears that these militias could carve out a breakaway Kurdish enclave along the ­Turkey-Syria border amid Syria’s chaotic civil war.

The incident underscored the potential for friction between the United States and its NATO ally Turkey over the Pentagon’s new strategy of providing greater assistance to the Syrian Kurds.

Syria’s main Kurdish militia — known as the People’s Protection Units, or YPG — said that Turkish forces fired on its positions in the northern Syrian town of Tal ­Abyad on Sunday but that no one was injured and that Kurdish fighters did not return fire, according to the Associated Press.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/turkey-fires-at-us-allied-kurds-in-syria-in-latest-border-tensions/2015/10/27/a3afa89c-7cb3-11e5-bfb6-65300a5ff562_story.html

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10. Russia and Iran helping Assad gain upper hand in Syria, head of Joint Chiefs says

Russian bombing and Iranian-backed forces have helped give Syrian President Bashar Assad's embattled forces an advantage in the country's bitter civil war, the top U.S. military officer said Tuesday, suggesting a sharp setback for the Obama administration.

Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr., chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, appeared to contradict upbeat assessments by the White House last month that indicated Assad's government had suffered a series of military losses and was losing control.

Although the long-term effect is far from clear, Pentagon intelligence has concluded for now that Russian air attacks, which began Sept. 30, and growing involvement by Iranian-backed forces have helped Assad's military advance on several critical fronts and extend his grip on power.

"The balance of forces right now are in Assad's advantage," Dunford, who visited the region last week, told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-russia-syria-support-20151028-story.html

[KoKo]

14. Bah! on them.....

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11. Arch-rivals Saudi Arabia, Iran to discuss Syria face-to-face for first time

Saudi Arabia and Iran announced they would attend international talks in Vienna on Friday on the war in Syria, in the first meeting between the regional adversaries aimed at ending the four-year-long war.

Saudi Arabia said its participation in the talks aimed to gauge the willingness of Russia and Iran, the Syrian government's main backers, for a peace deal, Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said on Wednesday.

"The view of our partners ... was that we should test the intentions of the Iranians and the Russians in arriving at a political solution in Syria, which we all prefer," al-Jubeir told a news conference in the Saudi capital Riyadh.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and three of his deputies will attend the multilateral talks, Iranian state news agencies said earlier on Wednesday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/28/us-mideast-crisis-syria-iran-idUSKCN0SM14C20151028

[KoKo]

16. A bit of a positive.....

Thankfully......They are Trying?

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Iran says it supports a political solution in Syria, but says Assad should be part of the process. Opposition groups, and their regional backers including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, say Assad must leave power as a precondition for peace.

Al-Jubeir said Saudi Arabia and its allies would hold a separate meeting on Friday to seek "the time and means of Bashar al-Assad's exit".

The White House said the peace talks could only work if "all key stakeholders" were invited, adding that Iran's participation should not overshadow the efforts to end the Syrian crisis.

"The United States is prepared to work with any nation, including Russia and Iran, to resolve the conflict in Syria," White House spokesman Eric Schultz told reporters.

Egypt, Iraq, Qatar, Lebanon, the European Union and France also said they would attend Friday's talks, which come a day after a smaller round of negotiations between the United States, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

Around a dozen participants are expected in total.

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12. US: No return to pre-war status quo in Syria

WASHINGTON

There cannot be a return to the pre-war status quo in Syria after so much bloodshed, the White House said Wednesday.

The U.S. is ready, however, to work with any nation - including Russia and Iran - to resolve the conflict, spokesman Eric Schultz told reporters ahead of Syria talks set to begin Thursday in Vienna.

Russia and Iran has backed the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad since the war began in 2011. But the U.S. seeks a political transition without Assad.

Although Iran is not considered as a key partner in the discussions, the U.S. wants Tehran to take place in the talks as a "stakeholder".

http://www.aa.com.tr/en/guncel/us-no-return-to-pre-war-status-quo-in-syria/457396

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13. Iran returns to ‘Vienna Talks’ – as peacemaker

Tehran’s acceptance of the invitation extended via Moscow to join the expanded format of the multi-party talks on Syria was never in serious doubt. The only remaining curiosity was regarding the composition of the Iranian delegation – in short, Iran’s approach to the talks as such.

The word from Tehran is that, unsurprisingly, Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif will attend the talks. However, the interesting part is that he will lead a high-powered team – comprising three deputy foreign ministers. They are Hossein Amir Abdollahian, Abbas Araghchi and Majid Takht-e-Ravanchi.

Indeed, that is an optimal line-up. Who are they? Well, all three are brilliant career diplomats, the best and the brightest in Tehran. (Zarif, too, by the way belonged to the Iranian diplomatic service.) Abdollahian is well-known as the top ‘hands-on’ diplomat in Tehran dealing with Syria who is in charge of the Middle East region, including Iran’s highly complicated relations with Saudi Arabia.

Unlike his teammates in Zarif’s delegation, Abdollahian is quintessentially what we can call a ‘Arabist’. Believe it or not, he never ever handled any responsibility as a diplomat in the foreign ministry at Tehran other than Middle East affairs, and his only stint as ambassador was as envoy to Bahrain in the second half of the last decade.

http://atimes.com/2015/10/iran-returns-to-vienna-talks-as-peacemaker/

[KoKo]

17. What to make of this?

What explains such a highly professional Iranian delegation at the Vienna Talks? Obviously, Tehran intends to negotiate seriously. Iran is wading into the multilateral diplomatic pond in Vienna with the intent to swim, not just to float around in a rubber dinghy for pleasure.

As a matter of fact, the US Secretary of State John Kerry was spot on when he said while addressing the Carnegie on Wednesday that as he arrives in Vienna later today (Thursday), he is getting the sense that the international community has in hand “the most promising opportunity for a political opening” on Syria.

By the way, wasn’t it fascinating that while Kerry could not resist the temptation to take a (gentle) swipe at the Russian intentions in Syria, he would not say a single unkind word about Iran’s activities? And, yet, Iran announced only earlier this week that it was sending more military reinforcements to support President Bashar Al-Assad.

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Indeed, Vienna will be the setting for a riveting diplomatic battle of wits between Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov to win the Iranian heart and mind. Make no mistake, it’s a situation tailor-made for the Iranian diplomats.

--------------NOT SURE ABOUT THIS-----------

The Vienna talks this time around are not going to be the cliff-hanger that the negotiations over the nuclear issue used to be. There is no angst in the Iranian mind today. Its integration with the international community is well under way and the Iranian diplomats are savvy enough to develop synergy between the Syrian track and Tehran’s agenda to build up ties with Europe and America.

It is useful to recall that Zarif was the US’ key interlocutor at the crucial Bonn conference on Afghanistan in December 2001. He literally helped the US to usher in an interim government (under the relatively obscure figure at that time by the name Hamid Karzai.)

According to Ambassador James Dobbins, it was Zarif who negotiated with the Northern Alliance leader Younus Qanooni on behalf of the Americans and overcame their resistance to the government led by Buhanuddin Rabbani stepping down and making way for Karzai.

[KoKo]

15. Lots to read here...

could only scan a bit, right now. Thanks for this collection of posts!

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18. We will have to see what comes out of the meetings this weekend,

and out fo the Turkish election.

And how the war goes.

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19. Preparing for a US showdown in Syria

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Pavel K. Baev, a senior nonresident fellow at the Brookings, has argued in a recent piece against the decision in mid-October to begin withdrawing batteries of US Patriot surface-to-air missiles from Turkey in view of Russian “entanglements” in Syria. Baev is a Norwegian political scientist and security scholar.

Perturbed as he is by the Russian campaign against what he characterizes as the “Turkey-backed and CIA-trained opposition groups,” the author goes on to suggest new strategy for the US amid such changed circumstances:

“Finally, the United States and its allies could deliver a series of airstrikes on the Hezbollah bands around Damascus. That would be less confrontational vis-à-vis Russia than hitting Assad’s forces. Hezbollah has already suffered losses in the Syrian war and is not particularly motivated to stand with Assad to the bitter end, away from [its] own home-ground in Lebanon. (Israel would appreciate such punishment, too.)”

Obviously, the author is not suggesting a strategy to defeat ISIS — an organization that the US itself is supposedly fighting. Baev, on the contrary, seems to be suggesting that the Russian campaign in Syria is a much bigger threat to US interests than ISIS. Hence, the urgent need to make life so difficult for the Russians in Syria that they’ll be forced from the country.

http://atimes.com/2015/10/preparing-for-a-us-showdown-in-syria/

[odd_duck]

20. Remember...

Remember…….

Russia is in Syria by invitation, as they are allies.
Iran is in Syria by invitation, as they are allies.
The US, on the other hand, has never been asked by Syria to invade its airspace or to put her boots on the ground.

Syria has not asked the US for help.
The US Congress has not declared war on Syria.
The UN has not given authorization to the US to invade Syria. So, it is clear that the US is in violation of international law.

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21. Now you've done it.

Welcome to DU, Odd Duck.