Iran nuclear deal leaves Tehran looking stronger as so many of its neighbours fall apart

[Jefferson23]

Analysis: Iran has escaped years of isolation and the threat of war without sustaining much damage

Patrick Cockburn

Sunday 17 January 2016

Iran is politically and economically stronger because of the agreement on its nuclear programme and the partial end of sanctions.

Israel and Saudi Arabia had argued in their different ways that such a deal would open the door to a radical expansion of Iranian influence in the Middle East. The late Saudi King Abdullah was notorious for calling on the US to go to war with Iran and “cut off the head of the snake”. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu famously produced a cartoon drawing at the UN to show how close Iran was to producing a nuclear bomb.

If all this demonisation and threat inflation had been true then the agreement with Iran would mark a transformation of the politics of the Middle East. Iran would pause only to digest new oil revenues and an end to its pariah status before embarking on a policy of aggression across the region. In reality the political landscape is changed but not transformed by limited détente between the US and Iran while the inter-related wars and crises in Syria, Iraq and Yemen remain largely as they were.

A remarkable feature of the wider Middle East over the past 15 years has been that the most-radical instruments of change have been the US and its allies, such as Saudi Arabia and the Gulf monarchies, which should have had the greatest interest in maintaining the status quo.

Provoked by 9/11, a US-led coalition overthrew the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2001 and Saddam Hussein in Iraq in 2003. Iran was delighted to find that without it having to lift a finger the West had disposed of two of its worst enemies.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-nuclear-deal-leaves-tehran-looking-stronger-as-so-many-of-its-neighbours-fall-apart-a6818321.html

[bemildred]

1. +1

A remarkable feature of the wider Middle East over the past 15 years has been that the most-radical instruments of change have been the US and its allies, such as Saudi Arabia and the Gulf monarchies, which should have had the greatest interest in maintaining the status quo.

[Jefferson23]

2. Does that sum it up or what? Gareth Porter wrote two days ago and added:

Will Iran Nuclear Deal Change US’s Middle East Politics?

It is doubtful that the nuclear agreement with Iran will have a very deep impact on US policy in the next few years

by Gareth Porter, January 19, 2016


The achievement of “implementation day” of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), when for both sides the central elements of the nuclear bargain went into operation on Saturday, means that it is going to be a fact of life in global and regional politics for many years. But will it have a profound impact on regional politics?

That is the argument both the Barack Obama administration and US allies in the Middle East who have opposed it have made in the past.

While Washington has said the agreement makes it more likely that Iran will eventually come to terms with its neighbors, Israel and Arab states have advanced precisely the opposite forecast, suggesting it will inevitably cause Iran to be far more aggressive and uncompromising.

However, especially in light of the dramatic deepening of the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia over the past year, it is now clear that focusing solely on whether it will reshape Iran’s policies is the wrong way to define the problem. Far more important is whether the agreement will create the impetus for realignment of US policy in the region.

Both sides have used their arguments as devices to advance their political interests rather than offering serious political analysis.

http://original.antiwar.com/porter/2016/01/18/will-iran-nuclear-deal-change-uss-middle-east-politics/

[bemildred]

3. It does indeed sum it up.

The best possible evidence for the DC bubble is that they were willing back then in 2001 to indulge in this folly and that they still now cling to it.

[Jefferson23]

4. As I believe you have said many times, they just double down.

In this case, if the next president should be the good Senator from Vermont,
we could see some positive advances. I appreciate it when Iran comes up
he does not feel obliged to do the satan meme...not that I am aware of.