How to Lose a Proxy War with Russia

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Well worth the read if you are interested in Syria or Ukraine.

The tenuous cease-fire deal in Syria offers an opportunity for reflection on not just the Syrian war, but also the conflict in Ukraine, where the war burned bright this time last year and still simmers. Aspects of the conflict in Syria offer a window on how a proxy war might have played out in Ukraine. The circumstances are decidedly different, but the mechanics of fighting a proxy war with Russia on one side and the West on the other remain the same. Russia's intervention in Syria is a useful vantage point from which we can look back on the bitter policy debates that were held in 2014 and 2015 on how best to help Ukraine militarily. The Syrian war provides important insights, and in some cases analytical verdicts, on the then hotly contested question of sending lethal weapons to Kyiv.

In February 2015, I wrote a lengthy piece for the National Interest entitled "How to Start a Proxy War with Russia," siding against calls at the time to send lethal weapons to Ukraine. My argument was that there were smarter and more substantive ways to help Ukraine. That piece was not penned out of blind conviction; there were solid arguments on both sides of the issue, made by good people. At the time, Ukraine was heading into a military defeat, which turned out to be the Battle of Debaltseve. Sending arms felt like the right thing to do, and Ukrainian leaders were asking for them. Those strongly in favor argued that there were few to no downsides. To them, the side urging caution was overly concerned with managing escalation. The argument was that if the United States was willing to get tough with Russia, and raise the costs by imposing more casualties on the battlefield, then Moscow would reconsider its aggression.

It's unclear what the envisioned end goal was, be it a cease-fire on Western terms, or Russian policy capitulation in the conflict. In either case, it is fortunate that these theories were not tested in Ukraine, because the war in Syria has shown that such notions are dubious at best. In Syria, the United States is losing, or arguably has lost, an protracted proxy war with Russia and its allies. Despite years of efforts to facilitate arms, money and training for the Syrian opposition against Assad, together with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, Moscow still looks best positioned to determine the political future of Syria and the Assad regime. So why did we think a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine would be a good idea?

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/how-lose-proxy-war-russia-15407

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1. kick

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2. Russian warships and naval assets sailing through Bosphorus strait has Turkey frightened

He has been watching boats on the Bosphorus strait for two decades; but, until recently, it had been years since Serhat Guvenc had glimpsed a Russian warship. Common in the Cold War era and again during the Balkans conflict, they had become a rare sight on the mighty waterway that transects the ancient city of Istanbul and separates Europe from Asia.

Now, barely a day goes by when the academic and amateur ship-spotter fails to catch sight of a Russian missile cruiser, landing ship or submarine. They goad Turkey by sailing through the heart of its biggest city to supply the conflict in Syria. “It’s like rubbing salt on an open wound,” Mr Guvenc says.

Turkey and Russia have supported opposing sides in the Syrian conflict since the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad began in 2011. Since November, when Turkey shot down a Russian Sukhoi-24 jet, the relationship has teetered on the brink of all-out war. But thanks to a 1930s treaty, in peace time foreign states “enjoy the freedom” to send military and commercial ships from the Black Sea down to the Mediterranean.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russian-warships-and-naval-assets-sailing-through-bosphorus-strait-has-turkey-frightened-a6914796.html

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3. Russia's Route to the Middle East 'Runs Straight Through Istanbul'

Russian navy ships have become a common sight in the Bosphorus strait, and are a constant reminder to Turkey of Russia's naval prowess, journalist Laura Pitel wrote.

Russian warships and naval assets have become a familiar sight for boat-spotters on the Bosphorus strait that runs through Istanbul and forms part of the boundary between Europe and Asia, a reminder for Turkey of Russia's presence in the Middle East, journalist Laura Pitel wrote on Sunday.

Pitel spoke to a group of amateur ship enthusiasts in Istanbul, who observe and photograph the vessels that pass through the strait.

http://sputniknews.com/world/20160306/1035862771/russia-turkey-bosphorus.html

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4. Daily Life on Alien Soil: A Look at Refugee Camps on Syria's Perimeter

Since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war nearly five years ago, 4.8 million people have fled the country's violence and collapsed infrastructure and become refugees abroad; most displaced Syrians have sought refuge in safer parts of Syria, as well as in nearby Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Egypt. Here are pictures of their everyday lives.

According to the estimates of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), up to 7 million Syrians are displaced within Syria; half are children.

http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160306/1035853049/syria-refugee-camps-life.html

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5. Lavrov, Kerry call for prompt start to Syria talks

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, in a late phone conversation on Friday called for a prompt start to the next round of Syria peace talks, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

The talks, under the aegis of the United Nations were originally due to begin on March 7 in Geneva, but have been postponed until March 9, due to “logistical and technical reasons and also for the ceasefire to better settle down,” the U.N. said.

“The two sides called to start the negotiations as soon as possible … between the Syrian government and the whole spectrum of the opposition, during which the Syrians themselves should determine the future of their country,” the ministry said in a statement.

Kerry and Lavrov also reaffirmed the need for mutual cooperation to ensure the end of hostilities in Syria, the ministry said.

http://www.syriahr.com/en/?p=44781

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6. What’s behind EU-Turkey alliance of convenience

ANKARA, Turkey — With an increasingly authoritarian president cracking down on critics at home and pursuing Kurdish militants in southern Turkey and across the borders in Syria and Iraq, Turkey is a risky partner for Europe in its quest to stop illegal migration.

Just hours after European Council President Donald Tusk was closing in on a deal with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on cooperation Friday, Turkish riot police stormed the offices of Zaman, the country’s biggest opposition newspaper, and installed trustees who’ll soon shut it down.

The EU gave Ankara a slap on the wrist on Saturday, and EU leaders have otherwise been conspicuously silent as Erdoğan has lashed out at independent media.

Europe sees Turkey as its savior in the refugee crisis. It needs Erdoğan to stop migrants from taking off from Turkey’s shores in flimsy dinghies to reach Greece.

http://www.politico.eu/article/turkey-europe-eu-merkel-alliance-migration-crisis-russia-no-fly-zone/

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7. Iran says Ankara and Tehran support Syrian cease-fire

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) -- Iran's President Hassan Rouhani says that both Iran and Turkey support the current Syrian cease-fire and the preservation of Syria's territorial integrity.

A Sunday report by the government-owned IRAN daily quotes Rouhani as saying, "There is no difference" between the two countries regarding stopping the war and "providing relief assistance to displaced people."

His remarks came during a meeting with visiting Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu ahead of talks between the Syrian government and opposition later this month.

Turkey is a leading backer of the rebels fighting to topple Syrian President Bashar Assad. Iran, along with Russia, has strongly backed Assad.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/M/ML_IRAN_TURKEY?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-03-06-04-11-16

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8. Iran’s Basij Fighting Force Bolsters the Syrian Regime

Tehran downplays its presence in Syria, but its volunteers are hard to hide.

The most obvious clue as to their presence is the fact that Iranian troops have died in the conflict, including high-profile commanders such as Brig. Gen. Hossein Hamedani of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps.

Iran’s Syrian military presence also heavily relies on the Basij — a paramilitary organization numbering between four to five million members. Ostensibly under IRGC control, the Basij reserves its greatest loyalty to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The Basij is most well known in the West for its terrifying human-wave tactics during the Iran-Iraq War. While these historical tactics are well documented, this is a simplistic view that neglects the Basij’s enormous breadth and scope in present-day Iranian society.

http://warisboring.com/articles/irans-basij-fighting-force-bolsters-syrian-regime/

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9. . nt

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10. Syrian Opposition Groups Demand Russia’s Anti-ISIS Protection

Several Syrian opposition groups have requested protection from Moscow as the Takfiri terrorists launch manhunt for those participating in a recently announced ceasefire, the Russian military says.

“They are asking us to provide their security and defend them from militants of the ISIS group and other terrorist organizations who declared a manhunt for opposition figures signing ceasefire agreements,” said the head of the Russian truce center in Syria, Lieutenant General Sergey Kuralenko, on Saturday.

The ceasefire agreement, recently brokered by the United States and Russia, does not cover areas under the control of ISIS and the al-Qaeda–affiliated al-Nusra Front.

“From our part, we will help ensure the security of the leaders of the Syrian opposition units and heads of local administrations who signed agreements to end fighting and to start the reconciliation process,” Kuralenko said.

http://en.alalam.ir/news/1796012

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11. Raqqa's Residents in Syria Rebel against ISIS Terrorists, Flown Syria's Flags

Last edited Sun Mar 6, 2016, 10:32 AM - Edit history (1)

Residents of the Syrian city of Raqqa, occupied by ISIS, on Sunday clashed with the terrorists and flown Syria's flags in the city, witnesses said.

Syria's flags had been flown in five neighborhoods of Raqqa, according to the witnesses. The residents took to the streets in two neighborhoods, killing a ISIS terrorist.

The witnesses added that on Saturday there were armed clashes between the the terrorists, after a group of some 100 terrorists tried to desert the city.

The city of Raqqa is the main city occupied by ISIS. It has been under control of the terrorists since August 2014. Currently the Syrian army, as well as the Kurdish militias are carrying out offensives to liberate the city from ISIS, which is outlawed in many countries, including the United States and Russia, Sputnik reported.

http://en.alalam.ir/news/1796021

Not a reliable source, but I've seen this in a variety of unreliable places now.