The next ISIS-style civil war will be fought in Saudi-Arabia in 20 years:

[DetlefK]

If the price of oil stays this low, Saudi-Arabia is headed for bankruptcy in 10-20 years.
- heavy reliance on oil
- cushy jobs for everybody (Why does this remind me of Greece?)
- religious rules making economy inefficient
- no noteworthy industrial sector
- no cultural of infrastructural basis for a high-tech economy
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1218243185
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timdaiss/2016/08/30/saudi-arabia-burns-through-foreign-reserves-as-oil-prices-slide/2/#6773554f375a



In a desperate bid for money, Saudi-Arabia is turning Mecca into a decadent "Mega Church"-style tourist hotspot. There are already first voices from disappointed pilgrims that this feels wrong and not spiritual at all.
http://www.cracked.com/personal-experiences-2420-6-things-i-learned-my-personal-pilgrimage-to-mecca.html



And what will happen once Saudi-Arabia can no longer afford to bribe its citizens into complacency? Their loyalty will fade away and they will start making political demands.
Do you know how the syrian civil-war started? The Syrians got afraid that the droughts would lead to famines and demanded political changes and Assad said No.
The same will happen in Saudi-Arabia: The people will start making political demands and the monarchy will say No.

And what happens when decadent rulers stray too far from a modest and spiritual Islam?
You want religious extremism? 'cause that's how you get religious extremism.
The ISIS-philosophy (which was actually developed by saudi-arabian religious scholars) will come to Saudi-Arabia and that's how you get a civil war.

[MrModerate]

1. On the plus side . . .

Enlightened (in their fashion) Saudi players are trying to build a substantial industrial infrastructure from the ground up and have been doing so for 40 years. Entire cities, energy-intensive industries like petrochemicals and metals smelting, etc. One social benefit is that there's a not inconsiderable technical class involved in this work at all levels, and they trend more secular.

On the minus side, when the monarchy falls, it's going to fall hard. And if the recent past is any guide, the unimaginably barbaric nutcases will come forward along with everyone else to ensure chaos is total.

So yeah. Interesting times. And something spectacular (a Royal assassination, say) could spark a collapse during the presidency of Donald Trump.