Recent South Korean Presidential Campaign Polling results

[soryang]

Last edited Mon Jul 5, 2021, 01:47 PM - Edit history (1)

(Source- 알리미 황희두 7.3 youtube) 윤석열 지지율 폭락!! etc. Yoon Seok-yeol's support suddenly drops!

This poll was taken after Yoon's June 29 announcement which I described briefly in an earlier post. It is not clear if the poll was finished before Yoon's mother in law's conviction for medical fraud on July 2. The first bar graph shows that Lee Jae-myung, the leading democratic party candidate, has taken an 8 point lead over Yoon Seok-yeol, the leading conservative candidate in a head to head survey. The second graph above shows the results in a theoretical 3 way contest with Yoon running an independent candidacy outside the main conservative party (the so called People's Power Party). In this hypothetical three way contest a nominal PPP candidate would take 9.5 percent of votes reducing Yoon's support to 29.8 percent. Obviously there are all the caveats concerning polls, margins of error, and making inferences so early in the campaign season.


( Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 7.3 youtube) '리서치뷰'의 충격 여론조사 발표!! etc.  Research Review shocking public opinion survey results...

A similar poll examination of a hypothetical three way race among conservative Yoon, and the two leading democratic party candidates is show above. This puts Lee Jae-myung, the leading democratic candidate for president in a dead heat against Yoon Seok-yeol, with spoiler democrat Lee Nak-yeon in a distant third place at 9.5 percent. Lee Nak-yeon's campaign is in distress since he recommended that former conservative presidents Park Geun-hye and Lee Myung-bak, both currently in prison for corruption be pardoned for their crimes. His support plummeted precipitously after that.


( Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 7.3 youtube)  Lee Nak-yeon, "I was against the appointment of Cho Guk (as Justice Minister)."

Lee Nak-yeon appeared with other democratic hopefuls in a democratic candidates meet the public interview session on national television yesterday. Lee Nak-yeon and the other minor candidates for president in the democratic party spent their time nitpicking at the leading candidate Lee Jae-myung, the current governor of Gyeonggido, a large province surrounding Seoul. Lee "JM" is somewhat progressive with a proposal for universal basic income and a strong management style regarding economic challenges facing his province and the country. With the exception of the former Justice Minister Chu Mi-ae, the other democratic candidates don't present strong policy initiatives consistent with the current Moon administration's approach.

Alternatively, Lee Nak-yeon as shown by the graphic was distinguished by the poor decision to shoot himself in the foot by criticizing the Moon administration's appointment of Cho Guk as Justice Minister, which has been a debacle, since the indictment and arrest of his wife, and the related indictment of himself, both of which were allegedly ordered by Yoon personally, when he was the Prosecutor General. Many democratic party rank and file members regard the Cho Guk indictments and trials as a politically motivated witch hunt, because Cho was the point man for the long standing democratic party's desire to reform the administration of justice in South Korea.

Lee Nak-yeon claimed in the televised interview, that he (as prime minister) advised the Moon administration two days before Cho Guk's appointment that he was against it. This public admission by Lee Nak-yeon is sure to be viewed very unfavorably by many democrats and will probably reduce his support further. Cho Guk was forced to resign a little more than a month into his appointment by the political uproar concerning the alleged corruption of his wife and himself. He was portrayed, by the opposition party and the conservative press, as a hypocrite as a reform minded politician. It also needs to be observed that Cho Guk would no doubt be a leading presidential candidate today but for these events.  He and his spouse, who was sentenced to four years imprisonment in a trial of dubious fairness, are still embroiled in criminal litigation. His wife is in prison pending the results of her trial on review. Cho Guk's recent memoir of his experience being run out of office and of the politically motivated persecution of his family is currently a best seller in South Korea.

Cho's successor as justice minister, Chu Mi-ae, appears to have orchestrated a solid personnel strategy of dismantling Yoon Seok-yeol's politically oriented machine inside the prosecution offices nationally. Yoon has been tainted with a second disciplinary committee decision finding he breached his professional duties as prosecutor while in office. This measure was directed by Chu Mi-ae and unfortunately squelched (wrongly as it turns out) by an administrative review court temporary injunction. Recently, the Constitutional Court rejected Yoon's appeal of the judgement by the disciplinary committee, but he had already left the Prosecutor General position to run for president. Chu Mi-ae is regarded as having turned in a consistent and principle driven performance at the televised public interview, having maintained her commitment to carry out the necessary political reforms to save the South Korean democracy from corruption and authoritarian practices. Ironically, Yoon had claimed this was his intent in declaring himself a presidential candidate on June 29, to prevent the democratic threat to democracy and stop dictatorship in the making in a ridiculous hyperbole projecting his own authoritarian characteristics onto the democratic administration. Yoon's drive to become President of the Korean Republic has the appearance of a desperate effort to stop further criminal investigations of his family and himself.

[peppertree]

1. Fascinating. Thank you for that.

I understand South Korea's presidential elections aren't until March of next year.

So as it stands now, do you think all the backbiting you described above will step on the Democrats' chances of retaining the Blue House?

Thanks in advance.

[soryang]

2. it's hard to predict the future but...

One of the sources i've relied on here for the survey analysis, has said, that if one considers the solid approval numbers for Moon Jae-in at this point in his administration, said to be around 41 percent with a 52 percent disapproval, it would be difficult for the opposition party to take over the Blue House next March. Now 41 percent may not sound very high but this is highest approval percentage for a South Korean president in the 5th and last year of the presidential term since the beginning of the democratic period (1987). So it bodes well for the democratic party.

The problem is that the conservative press, here, in Korea, in Japan, and the other English speaking countries, have a tendency based upon their own national interests to disparage Moon and his democratic supporters. So it's difficult to get a fair view of Korean politics here. The break out of the age groups in terms of Lee Jae-myun's support among voters shows that the middle decade groups 30,40, and 50 are solid bases of support. The southern region around Daegu, Busan, and Ulsan, is very conservative and Yoon's base of support. Very young and voters over sixty support Yoon.

As far as the backbiting goes inside the democratic party, I think this may be largely eliminated in the September primaries. The prelim primary is Sep 5. If no one candidate gets half or more of the vote, there will be a run off on Sep 9.

I think Lee Nak-yeon is a special case, I don't know what his problem is. His prior campaign manager was implicated in criminal election law violations not too long ago (in a prior campaign). I felt as if maybe someone has undue leverage on him. He's a problem. Hopefully he will be eliminated from the campaign in Sep. In the meantime he is damaging the party.

It is more likely that Yoon's support could be split, if he is not accepted as the conservative PPP opposition party candidate. There is some conservative reluctance to take him onboard as the PPP presidential candidate with all the legal baggage he and his family members are carrying. Then there is the recurring problem of Ahn Chul-su; will he run again with his independent party peeling off conservative votes? (he never wins)

You're right though, internal backbiting could hurt democratic prospects. This was a shared view of the democratic pundits i follow who want Lee Nak-yeon and the minor democratic candidates to STFU and get behind the leading candidate.

[peppertree]

3. Thanks! One for the bookmarks.

Politics in other democracies are often so much more nuanced and layered than they are here in the U.S.

All the Best to our fellow Democrats in beautiful South Korea.