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elleng

(130,156 posts)
Fri Dec 31, 2021, 11:33 PM Dec 2021

How to deal with the Kremlin-created crisis in Europe

By Stephen Blank, Philip Breedlove, Ian Brzezinski, Debra Cagan, Wesley K. Clark, Larry Diamond, Paula Dobriansky, Evelyn Farkas, Daniel Fried, Francis Fukuyama, Melinda Haring, John E. Herbst, Ben Hodges, Donald N. Jensen, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, John Kornblum, Michael McFaul, Steven Pifer, Herman Pirchner, Jr., John Sipher, Strobe Talbott, William Taylor, Alexander Vershbow, Kurt Volker

Editor’s note: Moscow’s buildup of troops on and near Ukraine’s borders and bellicose rhetoric have raised the prospect of a major conventional war in Europe. The phone call today between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin underscores the dangers of this Kremlin-manufactured crisis. Below is a statement by twenty-four distinguished experts and former senior officials offering their ideas on how to deter Moscow from escalating its current war of aggression against Ukraine and more broadly to discourage Moscow from future provocations. The statement represents the views of the signatories and not of their institutions.

Since President Biden’s virtual summit with President Putin on December 7, Russia has increased its troop presence on or near Ukraine’s borders. Having created this crisis, the Kremlin has demanded security guarantees for Russia that the United States and its allies cannot possibly provide. It has made provocative statements at high levels, including outlandish claims that US private military contractors chemical weapons attack in eastern Ukraine. Moscow wrongly asserts that NATO enlargement has created a military threat to Russia; the Alliance has fully abided by its commitments in the NATO-Russia Founding Act to refrain from deploying nuclear weapons or permanently stationing substantial combat forces on the territory of new member states, despite the fact that Russia has violated many of its own Founding Act commitments, as well as the UN Charter, the Helsinki Final Act, the Paris Charter, and the Budapest Memorandum.

In short, Moscow appears to be setting the stage for launching a major conventional assault on Ukraine, even though the United States and NATO have shown a willingness to sit down and discuss Kremlin concerns.

We believe the United States should, in closest consultation with its NATO allies and with Ukraine, take immediate steps to affect the Kremlin’s cost-benefit calculations before the Russian leadership opts for further intend to launch a military escalation. This means raising the costs that would ensue should the Russian military launch a new assault on Ukraine, building on the excellent set of measures the Biden administration has already laid out: enacting punishing sanctions on Moscow, sending major military supplies to Ukraine, and strengthening NATO’s force posture on its eastern flank.

The administration should continue its good work with the European Union and other partners to ensure agreement on the elements of a response to any Russian assault on Ukraine, regardless of the extent or form of Russia’s escalation. Such a response would include a package of major and painful sanctions that would be applied immediately if Russia assaults Ukraine. Ideally, the outline of these sanctions would be communicated now to Moscow, so that the Kremlin has a clear understanding of the magnitude of the economic hit it will face. In particular, Washington should consult with Berlin and secure German agreement that it would prevent Nord Stream 2 from going into operation in the event of a Russian attack, making clear that otherwise the administration will not again waive sanctions on the pipeline.'

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/how-to-deal-with-the-kremlin-created-crisis-in-europe/?

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How to deal with the Kremlin-created crisis in Europe (Original Post) elleng Dec 2021 OP
What does Putin want? Does he actually think he can dial back time and take over... brush Jan 2022 #1
So there will be sanctions if Russia invades Ukraine but no troops. marie999 Jan 2022 #2

brush

(53,475 posts)
1. What does Putin want? Does he actually think he can dial back time and take over...
Sat Jan 1, 2022, 02:53 AM
Jan 2022

another nation's territory like Hungary in the '50s or Czechoslovakia in the 60s? I'm glad his bluff is being called.

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