The Ukraine-conflict is not about NATO. Putin is actually afraid of Ukraine joining the EU.

[DetlefK]

Putin wants to prevent Ukraine from moving politically closer to the West. Unfortunately, due to the war in Ukraine with pro-russian secessionists, the diplomatic relationship between Ukraine and Russia has soured. Which means that Putin cannot TALK Ukraine out of moving closer to the West.

Which is the reason why Putin is using bullying. Putin is NOT trying to invade Ukraine. (Because it would turn Russia into an international pariah for good.) Putin is trying to bully Ukraine and the West into some sort of agreement/guarantee/promise that Russia would THEN IN THE FUTURE be able the leverage as an argument why the West shouldn't make this or that treaty with Ukraine.



Putin's goal is not to conquer Ukraine. Putin's goal is to keep a politically neutral Ukraine as a buffer between him and Europe.

Why?

Because Putin knows that sharing a border with the EU would economically hurt Russia.



Russia has a migration-problem.
Russia is losing half a million academics, businessmen, artists per year. Young educated people who want more freedoms and a better standard of living.
Russia is gaining half a million unskilled laborers from Central Asia per year.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1009483/emigration-and-immigration-russia/
https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/russia-migrants/

1.
If Ukraine were to one day join the EU, in 20 years or so, then this would worsen Russia's situation, because it would make it even easier for russian emigrants to leave. Just go to the EU-member Ukraine, where EVERYBODY is fluent in russian as a second language. And once you are inside the EU, it's just a small step to move to Germany or the UK, which have huge russian minorities.

An EU-Ukraine-border would increase the brain-drain from Russia.



2.
If Ukraine were to one day join the EU, in 20 years or so, then this would worsen Russia's situation, because the cheap unskilled laborers from Central Asia would bypass Russia. Why take a job in Russia when you can take the same job at a slightly better wage in Ukraine or Poland???

[SheltieLover]

1. Not his choice.

He needs to stfu & stand down.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

2. "This aggressive buildup at the border is a dangerous provocation"

Apropos of joining the EU, a successful prosperous Russian speaking Ukraine casts too much shade on Putin for his comfort.

[Thomas Hurt]

3. This is like say the Civil War was not about slavery but states' rights to keep slavery.

If Putin is afraid of NATO and he is hoping to delay or stop Ukraine from joining NATO, something a sovereign nation is free to do.

Then it is about fn NATO.

[paleotn]

4. So he's pushed Ukraine even further from the Russian orbit...

As Ukraine drifted further away, like an abusive spouse, Putin's actions meant to bring them back into the Russian fold grew more shrill and violent. Now he's backed HIMSELF into a corner with 190K troops on Ukraine's border. And the meter is running.

Expensive keeping a modern military of that size in the field. We don't think about that much in the US since due to our wealth and place in the global economy, ours is made of money as much as it consists of weapon systems and personnel. But this is a very expensive proposition for Russia. So what now? Invade and Russia is a worse pariah state than it already is, with an economy in shambles. Pull back and the shirtless "he man" looks weak and foolish.

There's already going to be adverse economic impacts for Russia, regardless of sanctions for invasion. Nord Stream 2 is dead. Western Europe is wisely diversifying their carbon energy needs. Who couldn't see nat. gas blackmail coming? Ugh. Ukraine is gone from Russian influence. Gone. NATO stood strong and remains a bulwark against future Russian aggression. And Russia is even more economically isolated and irrelevant in a de-carbonizing world. So much for the super brilliant, super duper villain many make him out to be. He's a KGB thug who found himself in the right place at the right time. Not much more.

[sboatcar]

6. Very true

If he invades, he destroys his country economically, if he doesn't he looks weak to his slavish followers......he's backed himself into a dangerous corner.

[sboatcar]

5. It seems like you're doing it wrong if you have to make it more difficult to leave a country

than if you just make it more desirable for educated progressive people to stay there. Just like East Germany, if you have to build walls and fences to keep your own people from escaping, you're definitely doing something wrong.

[Ghost Dog]

7. The UK is no longer in the EU. There is no longer any right of free

movement between the EU and the UK, except for the Irish.