Fear is Driving Diplomacy on Syria, not Humanitarianism

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http://www.juancole.com/2014/01/driving-diplomacy-humanitarianism.html

Fear is Driving Diplomacy on Syria, not Humanitarianism
By Juan Cole | Jan. 19, 2014
(By Martin Gascoigne)

Syria, like many countries in the region, is a demographically young country. With a population of 23 million. Slightly over a third are estimated to be below the age of 14. The ‘Arab Spring’ had its well-spring in such demographics. If a lack of hope heralded hopeful changes; it has been a lack of continued, analytic interest that has dampened spirits. A curiously conflicted, sugar-sweet media seems to have already shelved any interest in a Tunisian post-grad who immoliated himself because his non-license to sell vegetables was hastily curtailed. Tunisia: along with in depth analysis of Libya, Iraq or Afghanistan, seems to have joined a pantheon of countries whose fleeting, outside consideration has been passed-by. In the great race for the next jarring, filmed horror. Syria seems to have bucked this trend in recent weeks and the first question must be to ask, resoundingly, why?

Last September, a hasty withdrawl from an impending direct military involvement by America and UK was followed by a period of intense diplomatic activity and the mere hint, that ageing politicians could sometime, somehow, deliver a degree of Realpolitik to a cauldron of dangerous political theatre. But political pragmatism is often driven by perceived fear rather than adult responsibility. My perception is that it is fear, rather than wisdom, that is currently driving the situation.

Unreported wars spell danger for all concerned. Under-reported wars portend disasters. Such has been one of the outwardly binary, inwardly myriad, divisions of the conflict. A State that has run its media campaign with a degree of stealth and effective exclusion of key, traditional media players. A shapeless, unquantifiable opposition that has been overly reliant on social media. Both have hastened a sense of impasse and exacerbated the scale of misery for those on the ground.

A tentative arrangement is in place only days away from the scheduled meeting. As the forces arraigned against Assad continue to not only fragment but openly fight against each other.

[bemildred]

1. Gascoigne makes a good point.

When things get bad enough, people start to move, and when millions of people decide to move, it has consequences. They should be afraid. Only fools are not afraid.