The long read: why Russia should see off China in Central Asia’s new great game

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As conflict rages in Ukraine between pro-Russian separatists and the embattled Ukrainian army, a resurgent and belli­gerent Kremlin is casting its eye around the former Soviet Union, eager to shore up influence in its former colonial territories. All eyes are currently on Europe, but – while the battle for the Donbass is grabbing the headlines – the Kremlin is also looking east, towards the five Muslim states of Central Asia, viewed by Moscow as a bulwark between Russia’s southern borders and the restive badlands of Afghanistan.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been zipping in and out of Central Asia’s capitals, determined not to let the five Stans – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – slide out of Moscow’s orbit. “For Russia, it is about maintaining influence, economic and cultural, and maintaining Central Asia as a security buffer,” says Deirdre Tynan, Central Asia director at the International Crisis Group.

Central Asia was once the heartland of the Great Game, the 19th-century battle for influence that pitted Russia against Britain in this strategic gateway to Asia. With the battle for hearts and minds assuming greater significance as the conflict rages in Ukraine, the crisis on Russia’s western flank has upped the stakes in the “New Great Game” – the modern-day struggle for influence in this geostrategically important, energy-rich part of the world, a struggle this time between the Russian bear and the Chinese dragon.

As Putin continues to visit Central Asia’s capitals, the leaders are keeping a wary eye on Moscow’s aggressive expansionism in Ukraine, which has fallen victim to a Kremlin land grab and where Russia stands accused of fomenting a proxy war. Almost a quarter of a century after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Moscow is rewriting the rule book for dealings with its former colonies. Not surprisingly, the crisis in Ukraine has “triggered existential fears about territorial integrity and sovereignty”, says Nargis Kassenova, director of the Central Asian Studies Centre at Kazakhstan’s KIMEP University.

http://www.thenational.ae/arts-lifestyle/the-review/the-long-read-why-russia-should-see-off-china-in-central-asias-new-great-game

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1. US Eyes Ukraine’s Gas Transportation Network – Media

Seeing its strategy in Ukraine falling flat the US will now try to gain control over the country’s gas transportation network as a means of forcing Europe to toe Washington’s line, a French-language news website warns.

Washington appears all set to use the ongoing feud between the Ukrainian tycoons to snap up the pipelines pumping Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine, French mediaportal AgoraVox reported Wednesday.

"The conflict between [President] Petro Poroshenko and [billionaire ex-Dnepropetrovsk governor] Ihor Kolomoyskyi we now observe is just the initial stage of this operation,” the online edition notes, adding that if the US has its way it would effectively control natural gas deliveries to Europe thus forcing its European allies to “stay the course”.

“The rivalry between President Poroshenko and oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskyi is more than just an economic one, it’s also about who is going to run Ukraine. Here Kolomoyskyi has an edge wielding serious media, financial and even military power.Poroshenko is fully aware of this, but he still goes for it feeling the support of his American sponsors,” AgoraVox wrote.

http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150326/1020030748.html

[DetlefK]

8. Because Russia is totally innocent.

Russia is totally not trying to restore a Russia-led Soviet Union and Putin has totally not confessed that he ordered the invasion of Crimea to secure russian national-security interests.

No, it's the US, always the US.

And the EU has no will or opinion of its own and is a prize that is up for grabs between Russia and the US. If not for that evil empire US, the EU would already have sided with the nationalist, religious, militaristic gay-bashers where enemies of the government happen to get assassinated every now and then.

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9. Nobody is innocent.

I do doubt that we are much interested in Ukraine's gas network, if that helps. The only people who seem much interested in Ukraine's gas network are various Ukrainian politicians, who one presumes wish to use it to enrich themselves by importing cheap gas from the EU.

But one expects Sputnik to savage the USA pretty much in the way one expects the Washington Post to savage Russia. Sort of a reflex.

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15. Russia Said to Mull Backdating Ukraine Gas Discount as Deal Lags

(Bloomberg) -- Russia is weighing a reduction in Ukraine’s natural-gas price retroactively once a new agreement is reached as talks threaten to miss an April 1 deadline, according to two people in Moscow, familiar with the matter.

Officials in Moscow may decide on the incentive after European Union-led gas talks in mid-April, the people said, asking not to be identified as the information isn’t public yet. The Economy Ministry is preparing a draft order on a discount that involves offsetting export duties, they said.

Energy talks between the former Soviet allies are mired in politics amid a deadly, yearlong conflict in eastern Ukraine between government troops and pro-Russian separatists. Ukraine plays a key role in the EU’s energy security as it carries more than 10 percent of the 28-member bloc’s gas needs through its pipelines from Russia. Russian gas cuts to Ukraine disrupted exports to the EU during disputes in 2006 and 2009 during high demand.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-26/russia-said-to-mull-backdating-ukraine-gas-discount-as-deal-lags

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2. Chechnya Threatens to Send Weapons to Mexico If U.S. Arms Ukraine

The local parliament in Russia's Chechnya republic has responded to a U.S. congressional resolution that called for lethal military aid to Ukraine by threatening to supply weapons to Mexico.

U.S. arms supplies to Ukraine would be interpreted as a signal to send "the most modern weapons to Mexico" for the resumption of discussions on the legal status of "U.S.-annexed territories that now house … California, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Colorado and a part of Wyoming," Chechnya's parliament speaker Dukuvakha Abdurakhmanov said Tuesday in an online statement.

Mexico ceded these territories to the U.S. under the 1848 Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo, a peace deal that ended the Mexican-American War. In exchange, the U.S. agreed to pay $15 million to Mexico and to assume another $3.25 million in debt owed by the Mexican government to American citizens.

The remaining parts of present-day New Mexico and Arizona were bought by the U.S. for $10 million under a separate purchase in 1853.


http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/chechnya-threatens-to-send-weapons-to-mexico-if-us-arms-ukraine/518064.html

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3. Putin Plays Wildcard as Ukraine Bond Restructuring Talks Begin

(Bloomberg) -- As Ukraine begins bond-restructuring talks, it finds itself face-to-face with a familiar foe: Russia.

President Vladimir Putin, who the U.S. and its allies accuse of sending troops and weapons into Ukraine to back a separatist uprising, bought $3 billion of Ukrainian bonds in late 2013. The cash was meant to support an ally, then-President Viktor Yanukovych. While his government fell just two months later, Russia was left with the securities.

Now, those holdings take on an added importance as Putin’s stance on the debt talks could affect the terms that all other bondholders get in the restructuring. Russia, which is Ukraine’s second-biggest bondholder, has maintained that it won’t take part in any restructuring deal. Here are the three most likely tacks -- as seen by money managers and analysts -- that Putin’s government could pursue.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-25/putin-plays-wildcard-as-ukraine-bond-restructuring-talks-begin

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13. UPDATE 2-IMF sees Russian holdings of Ukraine debt as 'official'

(Reuters) - Russia's $3 billion holding of Ukrainian debt should be classified as 'official' debt, an IMF spokesman said on Thursday, weighing in on what has become a contentious issue in Kiev's economic situation.

Ukraine, which recently received a $17.5 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund, must come up with at least $15.3 billion from sovereign debt restructuring under the conditions of the program. But Russia, which holds a $3 billion Eurobond from Ukraine, has so far refused to participate in the restructuring.

"If I'm not mistaken, the $3 billion Eurobond comes from the Russian sovereign wealth fund, so it's official debt," IMF spokesman William Murray told reporters. He did not say that this precluded Russia's involvement in Ukraine's debt talks.

Countries borrowing money from the IMF are also not allowed to be behind in debt payments due to other governments, he said, without specifically commenting on what that means for Ukraine's IMF program. Ukraine's Eurobond from Russia comes due in December.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/26/ukraine-crisis-imf-idUSL2N0WS1FO20150326?rpc=401

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14. IMF considers Ukraine's debt to Russia as private sector obligation - representative

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) considers Ukraine's $3 billion in debt to Russia as an obligation of the private sector, not the official sector, IMF Deputy Spokesman William Murray said.

"The $3 billion in eurobonds belong to Russia's National Welfare Fund (NWF)," he said during a briefing at IMF headquarters in Washington, DC, on Thursday.

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/257296.html

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4. FAGIN: Ukraine endangered by tradition of corrupt government

Things are a mess here in Ukraine, worse than any time since I started visiting my ancestral homeland five years ago. I had visited the Maidan a couple of years before the protests, the Crimea before the Russians took it over, and even interviewed Ukrainian high school students applying for admission at my alma mater. The situation here is very bleak. And it may have to get worse before it gets better.

To hear my lady friend Mila tell it, what we Americans call "corruption" is simply the norm here. Politics is commonly understood to be a means for amassing personal wealth and power. Everyone knows this, but feels powerless to do anything about it.

A few hyper-wealthy individuals, or "oligarchs," dominate economic activity and, with the active collaboration of government officials, routinely loot and plunder the country. It is simply how things are done. That's how Mila, and millions of Ukrainian bank depositors like her, lost their life savings.

It might be tempting to blame this on a weak government, but it's more complicated than that. Ukraine has both too little government and too much.

http://gazette.com/fagin-ukraine-endangered-by-tradition-of-corrupt-government/article/1548572

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5. Russia 5-year CDS fall below 400 bps for first time since December

(Reuters) - Russia 5-year credit default swaps fell below 400 basis points for the first time since December 9, data showed on Thursday, as a rise in the price of its main revenue earner oil and easing Ukraine tensions bolstered sentiment.

Figures from Markit showed that Russia CDS were trading at 398 basis points. Russian sovereign debt also rallied with the bond maturing in 2030 rising 1.25 cents to trade at close to 115 cents, according to Tradeweb data.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/26/russia-cds-idUSL6N0WS28A20150326?rpc=401

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6. Gabrielius Landsbergis: "Sanctions against Russia are already bearing fruit"

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How will the financial assistance make a difference?

The financial package is part of a bigger package that we'll be providing to Ukraine together with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

I'm certain that it will help Ukraine. First of all it has to: Ukraine is struggling to balance its budget. This year alone Ukraine has to repay up to €17 billion of its debt. So the loan that Europe is providing will help to balance the budget.

Given the reactions from some member states, do you think that sanctions targeting Russia will be effective?

It's difficult to measure the exact results, but what we see is that together with the low oil prices, the Russian economy is really suffering. The sanctions' main aim was to get Russia to change its policies. I think that the big infrastructure projects are under huge pressure and the Russia can't complete them. So I think that we are already seeing the sanctions bearing fruit and I'm really hopeful that member states will provide support in the future.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/news-room/content/20150325STO37718/html/Gabrielius-Landsbergis-Sanctions-against-Russia-are-already-bearing-fruit

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7. . nt

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10. Families of slain Ukraine demonstrators demand justice

Obukhiv, Ukraine - Countless times on his computer, Volodymyr Chaplinskiy has watched the moment his father was shot dead, each time looking for details he might have missed the last time, or the time before.

The 21-year-old knows the sequence of events down to the second: his father, a protester in the centre of Kiev, was pierced by a bullet through his neck before he fell to the pavement in broad daylight on February 20, 2014.

The Maidan Square protests began in November 2013 after then-president Viktor Yanukovych failed to sign an association agreement with the European Union.

The Chaplinskiys - wife Svitlana, daughter Violetta, 6, and son Volodymyr - are among more than 100 families whose loved ones were killed during violent clashes between demonstrators and Ukraine's former elite police unit, the Berkut.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2015/03/families-slain-ukraine-demonstrators-demand-justice-150322085812601.html

[KoKo]

11. Interesting read and view about "The Stans"

Focusing on the vying interests between Russia/China in that area which one doesn't often find find at the usual sites.

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12. Yes. That was different.

And the debt negotiations. I am dying to see what they come up with for the debt negotiations.

And it does seem clear that Russia and China, being nuclear armed neighbors and sensible, have no intention of trying to take each other. They lack the two oceans we have to give them that sense of abandon when fucking around with foreign countries. That piece you mention points out that there is a certain division of labor between China and Russia in dealing with the stans and the mooslim threat. I have no doubt we intend to stick our finger in that pie too.

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16. Ukraine Is Not the New Yugoslavia, It's Worse

The pedogogical war notion again.

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For Putin, the annexation of Crimea was sufficient, in a strategic sense. He is no longer interested in redrawing lines on maps. His actions are not driven primarily by a determination to annex the Donbass region (which is of negligible strategic importance to Russia), carve out a land corridor to Crimea or create a frozen conflict.

Putin remains involved in Ukraine for reasons that seem largely pedagogical. He has a message for the sanctimonious West — and for the Ukrainians who craved entry into its club.

For the West, the message is that Russia will not tolerate meddling in its backyard. In Putin's view, the West must acknowledge the entire post-Soviet space, minus the Baltic states, as Russia's exclusive sphere of influence.

For Ukraine — and its government, in particular — the message is that the country cannot survive, at least not within its current borders, without Russia's support. Putin also wants to show Ukrainians that, at the end of the day, the West does not really care about them. Americans will not fight for them, and Europeans will not provide the money that their government so desperately needs.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/ukraine-is-not-the-new-yugoslavia-it-s-worse/518089.html