Israel sees ISIS in Sinai as biggest border threat

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The IDF believes that a conflict against Hezbollah or Hamas in 2016 is unlikely.

ISIS is threatening Israel from the south. IDF sources listing the expected security challenges to Israel in 2016 said that the biggest risk of operations against Israel over the coming year is on Israel's southern border. The IDF has realized that Israel faces security challenges along the borders in 2016, with the possibility of escalation beyond what occurred in 2015.

From the IDF's perspective, ISIS Sinai poses the greatest risk of action against Israel, although its capabilities are limited. ISIS Sinai has 1,000 members and a supply of money and weapons from its parent organization.

The IDF believes that there is also potential for escalation in Judea and Samaria, while the main restraining factor there is the economy, which will be damaged by escalation. Another restraining element is the partnership and security coordination with the Palestinian agencies still operating in the field.

http://www.globes.co.il/en/article-israel-sees-isis-in-sinai-as-biggest-border-threat-1001098412

[azurnoir]

1. Interesting piece especially that last part about security cooperation between Israel and the PA

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2. That and the bit about the ISIS forces in Sinai.

And some explanation for why Gaza does not look worse than it does, it's been quiet since the last time Bibi bombed the shit out of it. But Bibi is friends with the GCC now, all sitting around crying in their beer, and the GCC really needs friends now, just like Erdogan, so that probably covers it. GCC gets a "friend", Bibi gets "quiet", and Gaza gets money and food and a little cement. Al Sisi you don't have to explain, he is probably in on the tunnel racket by now.

The rest was "expected".

On the whole it was interesting as a view of Israeli thinking. It seemed a bit layed back.

That said, I predict that it will not be anything like a year berfore it becomes clear that it's all wrong.

Did you hear what Yaalon did to Erdogan?

http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/1.699667

[azurnoir]

3. real diplomat he is and now Israel has a new best friend in Greece

I wish them luck with that

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4. "Good way to patch things up, very Israeli."

I cracked up.

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5. In Middle East, a Serious Game of War

Ignatius. You notice nothing about Russia etc. It's this little toy problem. US, Jordan, IDF, and the Southern rebels. But then he gets sensible at the end. "You know, maybe you should think really carefully about this. Really, really carefully."

It does raise the question of what the IDF proposes to do if the US fails to step up.

I don't think we have to at this point, despite what he says, we can watch and wait. The guys that are worried about us not getting in are worried about being left out.


TEL AVIV, Israel -- Let's say Islamic State fighters attack an Israeli military patrol along the Syrian border. They try unsuccessfully to kidnap an Israeli soldier, and they kill four others. A Jordanian border post is hit, too, and the Islamic State proclaims it has control of Daraa province in southern Syria.

How do Israel and other key players respond? In a war game played here this week, they retaliated, but cautiously. The players representing Israel and Jordan wanted to avoid a pitched battle against the terrorists -- they looked to the United States for leadership.

This simulation exercise was run by Israel's Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) as part of its annual conference. The outcome illustrated the paradoxical reality of the conflict against the Islamic State: Israel and Jordan act with caution and restraint, hoping to avoid being drawn deeper into the chaotic Syrian war, even as the United States escalates its involvement.

"We all believe that keeping Israel out of the conflict is important," said Brig. Gen. Assaf Orion, a retired officer who served as head of the Israel Defense Forces' planning staff. He led the Israeli team in the simulation. In our war game, Israel retaliated for the killing of its soldiers but avoided major military operations.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/01/27/in_middle_east_a_serious_game_of_war_129449.html