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Jefferson23

(30,099 posts)
Thu Jul 10, 2014, 08:05 PM Jul 2014

The Rockets From Hamas, And The Iron Dome That Could Use Patching

Transcript:

For more on the rockets now used by Hamas and Hezbollah, Robert Siegel speaks with Ted Postol, a professor of science, technology and national security policy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Postol also comments on Israel's pursuit of an upgraded defense system.

ROBERT SIEGEL, HOST:

As we've heard from Ari Shapiro, the fighting between Hamas and Israel is, for now at least, an air war. And it's a familiar one. Hamas has long fired rockets at southern Israel, and as we've heard, it is now firing longer-range rockets. Israel has usually responded with airstrikes against Hamas targets in Gaza, and it says its Iron Dome missile defense system has intercepted some of the Hamas rockets in flight. This is an asymmetric conflict. The Israeli Air Force and air defenses are state-of-the-art while Hamas rockets, even as they make life very difficult in towns near Gaza, seem to inflict relatively little damage. For more on the hardware of this conflict, we turn now to Theodore Postol, who is a professor of science, technology and national security policy at MIT and a well-known analyst of missile defense. Welcome to the program, Professor Postol.

THEODORE POSTOL: Nice to be here - thank you.

SIEGEL: And first, how would you describe the rockets that Hamas is firing into Israel?

POSTOL: Well, the rockets are what are called artillery rockets that are ubiquitous to armies over the world. So for example, a typical diameter is called 122 millimeter rocket, which looks like a four-and-a-half-inch diameter pipe. And the length might be 10 feet, although some of them can be 20 feet.

SIEGEL: How big is the explosive that's usually carried by that rocket?

POSTOL: A typical explosive is 20 to 30 pounds which is quite enough to kill you if it lands near you. But, you know, if you take shelter it's unlikely to cause your house to collapse, and Israelis are set up to take shelter.

in full: http://www.npr.org/2014/07/09/330183774/the-rockets-from-hamas-and-the-iron-dome-that-could-use-patching

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The Rockets From Hamas, And The Iron Dome That Could Use Patching (Original Post) Jefferson23 Jul 2014 OP
Thanks, interesting. bemildred Jul 2014 #1
I don't know a thing about this kind of system..it does sound about right to you? Jefferson23 Jul 2014 #2
Yeah, that's about what we used to get. bemildred Jul 2014 #6
Thanks, tell you the truth, I don't read much on this topic, frightening stuff. n/t Jefferson23 Jul 2014 #16
I used to be a software engineer for a big military wargame. bemildred Jul 2014 #18
That is fascinating..getting the resolution down under ten meters is complicated because the Jefferson23 Jul 2014 #20
It goes with the territory (math). bemildred Jul 2014 #21
Complementary language of math..the patterns and form...your descriptions go way over my head. Jefferson23 Jul 2014 #22
Did you notice how the 90/10 percent numbers were reversed in the two stories? bemildred Jul 2014 #23
No, the OP would not load up for me, and still won't. Jefferson23 Jul 2014 #24
This is the part I'm talking about: bemildred Jul 2014 #25
Ah, ok...then yes. As I mentioned earlier, an independent review suggested poor precision too. Jefferson23 Jul 2014 #27
And $20K a pop for interceptors, shooting at what, $1000 rockets? I don't know, but cheap. bemildred Jul 2014 #29
Aren't we picking up that tab to some degree? n/t Jefferson23 Jul 2014 #31
Yeah, partners, I thnk. bemildred Jul 2014 #33
Yea, I don't remember the overall amount of money we're contributing. I found the old OP. Jefferson23 Jul 2014 #34
Thank you. nt bemildred Jul 2014 #35
Postol seems to have been front and center getting more accurate facts out there...then and now. n/t Jefferson23 Jul 2014 #38
I meant for that rant by Alamuti, on a morning like this that was priceless. nt bemildred Jul 2014 #39
ha ha, glad you enjoyed it too. lol@PaperDome. Jefferson23 Jul 2014 #40
And the other guy says: bemildred Jul 2014 #26
Interesting discrepancies. n/t Jefferson23 Jul 2014 #28
I am seeing a few Israeli casualties now. bemildred Jul 2014 #30
Have a good night. Jefferson23 Jul 2014 #32
You cannot call it an "air war" as the host does. ellenrr Jul 2014 #3
Carpet Bombing and Genocide? You cannot expect to be taken seriously. n/t shira Jul 2014 #4
do you take this Israeli legislator seriously? She calls for genocide. ellenrr Jul 2014 #5
Hell no, that's incitement. She should get in trouble for that. n/t shira Jul 2014 #7
she should be sabbat hunter Jul 2014 #56
actually.... shira Jul 2014 #58
For confirmation, you are claiming: WatermelonRat Jul 2014 #8
Israel has been eliminating the Palestinians for 60 years. ellenrr Jul 2014 #10
So the Palestian population is significantly smaller than it use to be? Nt hack89 Jul 2014 #11
not for lack of trying by Israel- and are you expressing desire to curb the population? ellenrr Jul 2014 #12
Don't be stupid. Just pointing out that it is not genocide hack89 Jul 2014 #13
And the jury results are in... aikoaiko Jul 2014 #17
Actuall just a few days ago Hamas attempted to massacre King_David Jul 2014 #19
Carpet bombing is defined by concentration, not tonnage. WatermelonRat Jul 2014 #14
Israel sabbat hunter Jul 2014 #57
I agree it's not a war, but it's not genocide either. Massacre described OCL in 2008, which Jefferson23 Jul 2014 #15
Hamas sabbat hunter Jul 2014 #55
Iron Dome proves mettle against Gaza bemildred Jul 2014 #9
More Iron Dome batteries to be rolled out in coming days as rocket attacks persist bemildred Jul 2014 #36
I have no doubt Rafael defense corp is thrilled with Ya'alon's PR pat on the back. n/t Jefferson23 Jul 2014 #37
Israeli Rocket Defense System Is Failing at Crucial Task, Expert Analysts Say bemildred Jul 2014 #41
How Israel’s Iron Dome defence system has an almost 90% success rate amid deluge of Hamas rockets bemildred Jul 2014 #42
Who is counting the number of rockets set Jefferson23 Jul 2014 #43
Think of it as a novel, a short piece of fiction. bemildred Jul 2014 #44
I hope someone does..but I hear ya. n/t Jefferson23 Jul 2014 #45
I thought this exchange with Postol was interesting, you may as well: Jefferson23 Jul 2014 #47
+1. bemildred Jul 2014 #48
Yes, definitely. n/t Jefferson23 Jul 2014 #49
Israeli Rocket Defense System Is Failing at Crucial Task, Expert Analysts Say Jefferson23 Jul 2014 #46
U.S. Senate committee approves doubling funds for Iron Dome Jefferson23 Jul 2014 #50
Israel’s Iron Dome Isn’t Working: A Weapons Expert’s Warning By Peter Coy July 21, 2014 Jefferson23 Jul 2014 #51
Thanks, interesting. bemildred Jul 2014 #52
I would not know and would need to defer but I find the politics of it interesting too..big bucks Jefferson23 Jul 2014 #53
Oh yeah. Always a cash cow since Raygun started it, the anti-missile stuff. bemildred Jul 2014 #54
The cost is crazy and it's not there yet..I don't want to even think about how much more Jefferson23 Jul 2014 #59

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
1. Thanks, interesting.
Thu Jul 10, 2014, 08:17 PM
Jul 2014

About what I would expect, the success rate of both the rockets and Iron dome. "Tens of meters" is about what you get with GPS.

Jefferson23

(30,099 posts)
2. I don't know a thing about this kind of system..it does sound about right to you?
Thu Jul 10, 2014, 08:23 PM
Jul 2014

This is not the first time I have come across an article that suggested problems..but I
have no background on these systems..none.

This part sure as hell stood out, clear as a bell:

SIEGEL: On the other hand, tens of meters in, let’s say a dense place like Gaza City – that could be three houses away.

POSTOL: You’re going to kill a lot of innocent people.

SIEGEL: Yeah, yeah.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
6. Yeah, that's about what we used to get.
Thu Jul 10, 2014, 08:31 PM
Jul 2014

I'd have to go look it up, it has been a long time now. But I remember I used to consider 10 meters good, just going from a UTM grid point and the best precision you could get from the math. It is doubtful that the mechanical aspects of the weapons offer much more precision than that anyway, those things are moving fast.

Edit: ten meters is around one second of arc on the globe, as I recall it.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
18. I used to be a software engineer for a big military wargame.
Thu Jul 10, 2014, 10:28 PM
Jul 2014

I got to do the map drawing software, in particular the UTM grid drawing stuff and digital elevation data. I spent a long time on the UTM stuff and map projections and digital terrain data of various sorts, and I remember that much, that getting the resolution down under ten meters got expensive in terms of compute time and the size of your data sets. One of the few times I really got to use my math degree.

Jefferson23

(30,099 posts)
20. That is fascinating..getting the resolution down under ten meters is complicated because the
Thu Jul 10, 2014, 10:35 PM
Jul 2014

resolution needs to remain clear at the same time fitting a smaller size?

You are speaking a different language to me, you can probably tell that by my awkward
question. lol

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
21. It goes with the territory (math).
Thu Jul 10, 2014, 11:07 PM
Jul 2014


Anyway vanilla GPS with maximum precision gets you about that, you are within tens of meters of where it says, and that coincides with about 4 digits of precision in the military grid reference system we were using, which is based on UTM, which is what GPS uses, for accuracy same as the military (artiillery for example has to hit where it is supposed to), and I remember that pushing it past that, more than four digits, got very expensive, and that's one meter resolution, within a meter. The artillery guys, they like that sort of precision. So it all "fits", sort of.

But that was a twenty years ago, when I was doing that. It makes my head hurt a little now.

Jefferson23

(30,099 posts)
22. Complementary language of math..the patterns and form...your descriptions go way over my head.
Thu Jul 10, 2014, 11:22 PM
Jul 2014

Very cool, bemildred.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
23. Did you notice how the 90/10 percent numbers were reversed in the two stories?
Thu Jul 10, 2014, 11:37 PM
Jul 2014

The one I posted at the bottom and the interview you put up?

Jefferson23

(30,099 posts)
24. No, the OP would not load up for me, and still won't.
Thu Jul 10, 2014, 11:44 PM
Jul 2014

I could try and find the earlier piece I referenced before..where the article
expressed poor figures of precision versus the success rate Israel claimed.

It may have been as long as a year ago..not sure.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
25. This is the part I'm talking about:
Thu Jul 10, 2014, 11:47 PM
Jul 2014

SIEGEL: They say it was intercepted by the Iron Dome missile defense system. How would - how successful is that system, in your view?

POSTOL: We can tell, for sure, from video images and even photographs that the Iron Dome system is not working very well at all. It - my guess is maybe 5 percent of the time - could be even lower.

SIEGEL: As I understand it, for it to work it actually has to hit an oncoming rocket head on.

POSTOL: That's correct. And when you look - what you can do in the daytime - you can see the smoky contrail of each Iron Dome interceptor, and you can see the Iron Domes trying to intercept the artillery rockets side on and from behind. In those geometries, the Iron Dome has no chance, for all practical purposes, of destroying the artillery rocket.

Jefferson23

(30,099 posts)
27. Ah, ok...then yes. As I mentioned earlier, an independent review suggested poor precision too.
Thu Jul 10, 2014, 11:55 PM
Jul 2014

Basically said it sucked but the government said the opposite. That may have been at least
a year ago...so not much has changed. But I don't recall the figures at the time, but you're
confirming this is as good as it can get, before it gets too expensive.

Come to think of it, it may have been shay who first posted the article.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
29. And $20K a pop for interceptors, shooting at what, $1000 rockets? I don't know, but cheap.
Fri Jul 11, 2014, 12:05 AM
Jul 2014

It's not new info, no. They have always been criticized on pragmatic grounds, but it's political, and maybe it does work some.

Jefferson23

(30,099 posts)
34. Yea, I don't remember the overall amount of money we're contributing. I found the old OP.
Fri Jul 11, 2014, 09:54 AM
Jul 2014

It was Alamuti, actually, and shay and you weighed in as well...cracked me up when I read
the source, Postol.

Too funny.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/113435218

Jefferson23

(30,099 posts)
38. Postol seems to have been front and center getting more accurate facts out there...then and now. n/t
Fri Jul 11, 2014, 10:39 AM
Jul 2014

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
26. And the other guy says:
Thu Jul 10, 2014, 11:49 PM
Jul 2014

Israel’s Iron Dome interceptor has shot down some 90 per cent of Palestinian rocketsit engaged during this week’s surge of Gaza fighting, up from the 85 percent rate in the previous mini-war of 2012, Israeli and US officials said on Thursday.

Seven batteries of the system, made by the state-owned Rafael Advanced Defence Systems Ltd and partly funded by Washington, have been rotated around Israel to tackle unprecedented long-range salvoes by Hamas guerrillas.

Rafael said it had been working on improvements to Iron Dome, which is designed to fire guided missiles at rockets that threaten to hit populated areas while ignoring others.There have been few injuries and no fatalities from rockets that hit towns or cities — results that also reflect Israel’s extensive investment in air raid sirens and shelters.

ellenrr

(3,864 posts)
3. You cannot call it an "air war" as the host does.
Thu Jul 10, 2014, 08:27 PM
Jul 2014

It cannot be a war when one side fires 'rockets' which hit nothing, and the other side carpet bombs.
democracy Now: "The Israeli military says it has dropped 800 tonnes of bombs on 750 targets throughout Gaza, more than during its eight-day assault in late 2012."
these bombs drop on a civilian population which have no where to go.

No air-raid shelters in Gaza.

if a person was injured in Israel they have doctors and hospitals.
for the hundreds already injured in Palestine - too bad - doctors are overwhelmed, hospitals are out of supplies.

Let's call it what it is - genocide, not a war.
How can it be a war, when one side has no navy, no army, no air force, no weapons?


 

shira

(30,109 posts)
58. actually....
Tue Jul 22, 2014, 06:46 PM
Jul 2014

not that I know hebrew to confirm...

http://www.jewishpress.com/indepth/opinions/exclusive-mk-ayelet-shaked-exposes-daily-beast-reporters-deliberate-distortions/2014/07/16/

Let’s start with my July 1 Facebook post. It was written some 12 years ago, but never published, by a dear man, the recently departed journalist Uri Elitzur. The gist of his article was that once one side in a war attacks the other side’s civilians, they can no longer morally claim a special status for their own civilians.

Go ahead, ask a Hebrew speaking friend to translate it for you, they’ll confirm this is what my Facebook post was about. But you’ll find not a trace of that in Resnick’s account. Perhaps it’s his own ignorance of the Hebrew language. After all, he got the text from Electronic Intifada, a website dedicated to daily and hourly vilification of my country.

WatermelonRat

(340 posts)
8. For confirmation, you are claiming:
Thu Jul 10, 2014, 09:03 PM
Jul 2014

1) That Israel is attempting to exterminate all 1.8 million inhabitants of the Gaza Strip.
2) That they are engaged in "large aerial bombing done in a progressive manner to inflict damage in every part of a selected area of land"

That is what the words you are using mean. If this is not what you meant, I suggest you ammend such statements in the future with more accurate terminology. You'd still be a liar for claiming that Hamas has "no weapons" of course, but you'd be a significantly less reprehensible one than those pushing the claim that Protective Edge amounts to genocide.

ellenrr

(3,864 posts)
10. Israel has been eliminating the Palestinians for 60 years.
Thu Jul 10, 2014, 09:07 PM
Jul 2014

as this son of an Israeli general puts it:
" Israel has been bombing and killing people in Gaza since it created the Gaza Strip in the early 1950s. On a regular base, Israel goes in and kills civilians in Gaza. This has been going on for six decades. Of course, it’s getting worse. The technology is getting better. And the casualty count is getting worse. But this is part of a larger issue, a larger problem. And the problem is that people equate the Palestinian response to Israeli violence and to Israeli aggression as terrorism, instead of realizing that this is an act of resistance. The Palestinians have been the subject of oppression and violence by Israel from the very beginning that the state of Israel was established."

look him up. His name is Miko Peled. His father was an Israeli general. He’s the author of The General’s Son: Journey of an Israeli in Palestine.
http://www.democracynow.org/2014/7/8/the_incitement_starts_at_the_top

What do you call it - when people are not allowed to farm, when their water is poisoned, when they cannot trade... when they cannot go in, or out, when they are not allowed to travel for humanitarian reasons.
what happens they die - sometimes slowly as all the time, sometimes quickly as now.

as far as carpet bombing, yes I call 800 tons of bombs (so far) as of yesterday- I call that carpet bombing.

ellenrr

(3,864 posts)
12. not for lack of trying by Israel- and are you expressing desire to curb the population?
Thu Jul 10, 2014, 09:12 PM
Jul 2014

How?
poisoned water?
kidney disease among the children?
malnourishment?

what is your pleasure?

hack89

(39,171 posts)
13. Don't be stupid. Just pointing out that it is not genocide
Thu Jul 10, 2014, 09:14 PM
Jul 2014

Or if it is, it is an embarrassing failure. The point of genocide is to eliminate your enemy, not watch their population explode.

aikoaiko

(34,169 posts)
17. And the jury results are in...
Thu Jul 10, 2014, 09:53 PM
Jul 2014


On Thu Jul 10, 2014, 09:20 PM an alert was sent on the following post:

Don't be stupid. Just pointing out that it is not genocide
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1134&pid=67296

REASON FOR ALERT

This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.

ALERTER'S COMMENTS

rude remark

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Thu Jul 10, 2014, 09:28 PM, and the Jury voted 3-4 to LEAVE IT.

Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: "Don't be stupid" in this case reads more like "don't be silly", and I don't think it crosses the line into rudeness.
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: not rude
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #4 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: hack can make the point without personal attacks, I'm sure.
Juror #5 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: The post is unnecessarily rude. Poster it does not make you look "smart" ... just unsocialized
Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #7 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given

Thank you very much for participating in our Jury system, and we hope you will be able to participate again in the future.

King_David

(14,851 posts)
19. Actuall just a few days ago Hamas attempted to massacre
Thu Jul 10, 2014, 10:28 PM
Jul 2014

Every single Palestinian in Gaza and the West Bank... Mass murder suicide.besides the usual kill the Gays Jews and Collaborators meme.. they attempted to murder ....
Every single Palestinian man women and child.And they proudly admitted it .

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1134&pid=66694


Hamas: We attempted to hit the nuclear reactor in Dimona

WatermelonRat

(340 posts)
14. Carpet bombing is defined by concentration, not tonnage.
Thu Jul 10, 2014, 09:26 PM
Jul 2014

The American firebombing of Tokyo in WWII used 1665 tons of bombs, about twice as much as Israel in this campaign, yet the casualties were over 100,000. If Israel were as bloodthirsty as you imply, they could have easily achieved that and more with modern bombs, yet the casualties in Gaza do not even exceed a hundred.

sabbat hunter

(6,828 posts)
57. Israel
Tue Jul 22, 2014, 06:21 PM
Jul 2014

did not create the gaza strip. it was created by Egypt when it invaded, then stayed until forced out in 1967.

Jefferson23

(30,099 posts)
15. I agree it's not a war, but it's not genocide either. Massacre described OCL in 2008, which
Thu Jul 10, 2014, 09:50 PM
Jul 2014

is indiscriminate killing.

sabbat hunter

(6,828 posts)
55. Hamas
Tue Jul 22, 2014, 06:18 PM
Jul 2014

is their equivalent of an army. An illegally armed one, that does not wear uniforms, but an army equivalent.

Hamas could have built air raid shelters, but instead they built tunnels only for Hamas fighters. Then they smuggled arms thru those tunnels, instead of humanitarian aid for the Palestinians.


Hamas also has weapons, rockets, small arms, etc. So they are not defenseless.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
9. Iron Dome proves mettle against Gaza
Thu Jul 10, 2014, 09:04 PM
Jul 2014
Another version. $20,000 a shot for the interceptors, I read in a similar piece earlier today.

Israel’s Iron Dome interceptor has shot down some 90 per cent of Palestinian rocketsit engaged during this week’s surge of Gaza fighting, up from the 85 percent rate in the previous mini-war of 2012, Israeli and US officials said on Thursday.

Seven batteries of the system, made by the state-owned Rafael Advanced Defence Systems Ltd and partly funded by Washington, have been rotated around Israel to tackle unprecedented long-range salvoes by Hamas guerrillas.

Rafael said it had been working on improvements to Iron Dome, which is designed to fire guided missiles at rockets that threaten to hit populated areas while ignoring others.There have been few injuries and no fatalities from rockets that hit towns or cities — results that also reflect Israel’s extensive investment in air raid sirens and shelters.

“We’ve been constantly fine-turning the programming of the system, including during the fighting. Our engineers are on the ground, with the military crews, analysing each interception and making adjustments to get the best results,” said a Rafael spokesman.

http://www.asianage.com/international/iron-dome-proves-mettle-against-gaza-432

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
36. More Iron Dome batteries to be rolled out in coming days as rocket attacks persist
Fri Jul 11, 2014, 10:01 AM
Jul 2014

Additional Iron Dome batteries will be rolled out in the coming days and deployed across Israel.

Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon spoke with the heads of the Rafael defense corporation and Israel Aircraft industries, which manufactures air defense batteries, and thanked them for the extraordinary performance of the anti-rocket system.

"Your efforts, and those of your people in this operation is very impressive, and inspirational," Ya'alon added. "In recent days, you and your people are working with dedication, day and night, to instantly set up more Iron Dome batteries, which will go into operation during [the current] Operation Protective Edge, and will defend the Israeli people," he said.

Ya'alon spoke to Yitzhak Gat (Chairman) and Didi Ya'ari (CEO) of Rafael, and Rafi Maor (Chairman) and Yosi Weiss (CEO) of IAI.

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/More-Iron-Dome-batteries-to-be-rolled-out-in-coming-days-as-rocket-attacks-persist-362409

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
41. Israeli Rocket Defense System Is Failing at Crucial Task, Expert Analysts Say
Fri Jul 11, 2014, 01:03 PM
Jul 2014

Even though Israel’s U.S.-funded “Iron Dome” rocket-defense interceptors appear to be hitting Hamas rockets in recent days, they are almost certainly failing in the crucial job of detonating those rockets’ shrapnel-packed explosive warheads, expert analysts say.

As a result, rockets fired from Gaza are probably plunging to the ground with intact explosives. The fact that they aren’t causing injuries or deaths in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and other cities is mainly a matter of luck, the analysts add.

On Thursday, the Israel Defense Forces said missiles from the system had intercepted 56 rockets fired out of Gaza, preventing strikes in several cities. Yet Richard Lloyd, a weapons expert and consultant who is a past Engineering Fellow at Raytheon Integrated Defense Systems, says that because these interceptions had almost certainly not detonated the rockets’ warheads, the system is essentially failing.

The Iron Dome system—meant to hit rockets traveling tens of miles from launch to landing—is a smaller cousin to the Patriot system, which attempts to hit much longer-range, faster incoming missiles. Iron Dome fires interceptors six inches wide and 10 feet long and uses sensors and real-time guidance systems to try to zero in on the rockets.

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/528916/israeli-rocket-defense-system-is-failing-at-crucial-task-expert-analysts-say/

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
42. How Israel’s Iron Dome defence system has an almost 90% success rate amid deluge of Hamas rockets
Fri Jul 11, 2014, 01:05 PM
Jul 2014

ASHKELON, Israel — In a sun-scorched field on the outskirts of the Israeli city of Ashkelon, out of sight of the locals busy picking ripe watermelons nearby, two state-of-the-art anti-missile defence batteries stand on high alert.

Shaped like two giant match boxes tilted diagonally towards Gaza, the system comes to life as the wailing of a siren echoes through the nearby loudspeakers.

In the time that it took to read the two sentences above, the iron dome system will have determined whether the rocket soaring through the sky is likely to land in an open field or crash into a building in a city. In case of the latter, a counter-missile will already have been deployed to intercept it. Such a process has been repeated many times since Monday.

More than 360 rockets have been launched at Israel from Gaza in this time. Of these, the iron dome has intercepted more than 70, including approximately 10 missiles that were fired at Tel Aviv.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/07/11/how-israels-iron-dome-defence-system-has-an-almost-90-success-rate-amid-deluge-of-hamas-rockets/

Jefferson23

(30,099 posts)
43. Who is counting the number of rockets set
Fri Jul 11, 2014, 01:18 PM
Jul 2014

off? He stands by that figure, and another one from NYT from last year...he was not alone.

Weapons Experts Raise Doubts About Israel’s Antimissile System

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/21/world/middleeast/israels-iron-dome-system-is-at-center-of-debate.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0&_r=0

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
44. Think of it as a novel, a short piece of fiction.
Fri Jul 11, 2014, 02:24 PM
Jul 2014

I don't think it has any particular connection to reality, they don't expect to be seriously challenged about it. They are probably correct in that.

Jefferson23

(30,099 posts)
47. I thought this exchange with Postol was interesting, you may as well:
Tue Jul 15, 2014, 09:02 AM
Jul 2014

Last edited Tue Jul 15, 2014, 09:44 AM - Edit history (1)

A correspondent sent me this exchange with Postol, which I have received permission to post.



From:FerozeSidhwa

Sent: Friday, July 11, 2014 6:16 PM

To:postol@mit.edu

Subject: NPR interview

Dr. Postol,

I heard your interview on NPR the other day on the Iron Dome system.

You said that Hamas is “intentionally forc[ing] the Israelis to kill a lot of noncombatants”. Do you have any evidence that this is the case? You were talking about this in the context of Gaza being a densely populated place. Do you think Hamas is responsible for the incredible population density of the Gaza Strip, and that their purpose in making it one of the most densely populated places in the world was to “make[] the Israelis look worse”?

As far as I am aware, such claims are only made by Israeli and American government spokespeople, the same ones who constantly claim against all evidence that Iron Dome is shooting down huge numbers of rockets. I don’t know why someone would take such people’s claims seriously under any circumstances. On its face the claim seems rather unlikely to be true: the most popular political party in Palestine is actively trying to get Palestinian women and children killed to make Israel look bad? Palestinians must be very stupid people indeed to support such a group.

I would appreciate an answer. You are a highly regarded scientist at a highly regarded institution, so people take your statements seriously. Thank you, I hope you are well.

Norm,

Thought you might find this exchange interesting, or maybe uplifting. Not for posting obviously.


Sent from my iPhone

FerozeSidhwa, M.D., M.P.H.

Surgery Resident, Boston University Medical Center

Email: feroze.sidhwa@post.harvard.edu





***On Jul 12, 2014, at 1:49 PM, <postol@tpostol.com> wrote:

Dear Dr. Sidwha:

I sincerely regret that at the end of my four minute interview it appeared to you that I was asserting that Hamas was responsible for the atrocities now going on in Gaza. For our common reference, I have transcribed the very end of that four minute interview:

Interviewer: On the other hand, tens of meters (of accuracy) in a dense place like Gaza city –

Postol (Interrupting): That could kill a lot of innocent people
in part this is an important game on the part of the adversary, if you can intentionally force Israelis to kill a lot of noncombatants that’s good for your campaign, it makes the Israelis look worse

The interviewer’s question was related to an earlier discussion we were having about the accuracy of the artillery rockets being fired into Israel relative to the accuracy of bombs being dropped by Israeli pilots in Gaza.

I pointed out that these bombs “could kill a lot of it people.” My next statement had to do with the tactics that are typically used by almost all guerrilla organizations when they are fighting a vastly more capable adversary. For example, it was typical, in the war over Kosovo in the Balkans, that Serbian guerrillas would set mortars up in town squares so that counter battery fire would certainly result in mass casualties of innocents.

This is one of those terrible facts of unrestrained warfare.

I regard the Israeli bombing of Gaza as completely inexcusable. The Israelis present themselves as a modern state that is integrated into the “Western alliance.” The values espoused by these countries (which I fully acknowledge are not always followed) clearly and unambiguously treat has more crimes attacks that are executed without regard to the killing of innocent civilians. I agree with those values.

The moral questions raised by how the Israeli government has responded to Palestinian artillery rocket attacks are serious, and, have not been adequately discussed in the Western press.

The Palestinian artillery rocket attacks have had a serious paralyzing effect on Israeli society – but they have essentially resulted in no losses of life. This is because the real defense that the Israelis have is being able to take shelter before artillery rockets impact. This “passive” defense is also aided by the fact that these artillery rockets have quite small warheads, so modest levels of sheltering can be quite effective.

There can be no excuse for dropping 1000 and 2000 pound bombs on a densely populated area under the guise that the response is proportional. The Israeli approach to this intractable confrontation should be totally unacceptable to all states that hold a high value on human life. In fact, the Israeli response to the Gaza conflict raises the same moral questions as that of Assad’s bombing attacks against civilians in rebel controlled areas in Syria.

I sincerely regret that you misunderstood my statement, and I will be very careful in the future to do what I can to be clearer about my views. I do not wish to make it look like I am making an excuse, but I hope you will also understand that this was a quite short interview that was additionally edited by NPR, who I also believe did the best job they could under the circumstances.

Best regards, Ted Postol



***
From:FerozeSidhwa<feroze.sidhwa@gmail.com>

Date: July 12, 2014 at 5:00:33 PM PDT

To: “<postol@tpostol.com>” <postol@tpostol.com>

Subject:Re: Your Concerns About My NPR interview



Dr. Postol,

Your empathetic response is exactly what I thought I wouldn’t get but was hoping I would. You obviously have a deep understanding and a humanitarian perspective, a rare combination. Or maybe the media just doesn’t typically give a platform to scholars who are also decent human beings.

Thank you so much for your response. It’s very unusual to meet someone who takes their words so seriously, so please let me thank you sincerely for that.

I hope you are well and will continue your work. Best of luck.

Sent from my iPhone

FerozeSidhwa, M.D., M.P.H.

Surgery Resident, Boston University Medical Center

Email: feroze.sidhwa@post.harvard.edu


http://normanfinkelstein.com/2014/informative-exchange/

Jefferson23

(30,099 posts)
46. Israeli Rocket Defense System Is Failing at Crucial Task, Expert Analysts Say
Sun Jul 13, 2014, 09:46 PM
Jul 2014

Even though Israel’s U.S.-funded “Iron Dome” rocket-defense interceptors appear to be hitting Hamas rockets in recent days, they are almost certainly failing in the crucial job of detonating those rockets’ shrapnel-packed explosive warheads, expert analysts say.

As a result, rockets fired from Gaza are probably plunging to the ground with intact explosives. The fact that they aren’t causing injuries or deaths in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and other cities is mainly a matter of luck, the analysts add.

On Thursday, the Israel Defense Forces said missiles from the system had intercepted 56 rockets fired out of Gaza, preventing strikes in several cities. Yet Richard Lloyd, a weapons expert and consultant who is a past Engineering Fellow at Raytheon Integrated Defense Systems, says that because these interceptions had almost certainly not detonated the rockets’ warheads, the system is essentially failing.

The Iron Dome system—meant to hit rockets traveling tens of miles from launch to landing—is a smaller cousin to the Patriot system, which attempts to hit much longer-range, faster incoming missiles. Iron Dome fires interceptors six inches wide and 10 feet long and uses sensors and real-time guidance systems to try to zero in on the rockets.

When an Iron Dome interceptor gets close to an incoming rocket, a proximity fuse triggers the interceptor to detonate, spraying out metal rods that are intended to strike and detonate the warheads on the incoming rockets, neutralizing their ability to maim people and destroy things on the ground.

Ted Postol, the MIT physicist and missile-defense expert who aided Lloyd’s analysis and who in 1991 debunked claims by the U.S. Army that its Patriot missiles were successfully shooting down Iraqi Scud missiles during the first Gulf War (see “Postol vs. the Pentagon” and “Preventing Fratricide”), agrees that Iron Dome’s interceptors have not been succeeding at this crucial warhead-detonation job.

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/528916/israeli-rocket-defense-system-is-failing-at-crucial-task-expert-analysts-say/

Jefferson23

(30,099 posts)
50. U.S. Senate committee approves doubling funds for Iron Dome
Tue Jul 15, 2014, 06:06 PM
Jul 2014
Bill would provide $621.6 million for Israeli missile defense, including $351 million for the Iron Dome anti-missile system.

By Haaretz | Jul. 15, 2014

A United States congressional committee on Tuesday approved a spending
bill that would double the funding for Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system, Fox News reported.

The defense spending bill approved by the Senate Appropriations defense subcommittee would provide $621.6 million for Israeli missile defense, including $351 million for the Iron Dome system.

The bill still has to be approved by the full Senate.

The allocation for Israel is only a small part of the full bill, which would provide the U.S. armed forces with $549.3 billion for the fiscal year beginning October 1.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/1.605370

Jefferson23

(30,099 posts)
51. Israel’s Iron Dome Isn’t Working: A Weapons Expert’s Warning By Peter Coy July 21, 2014
Tue Jul 22, 2014, 05:51 PM
Jul 2014
“We’re not trying to bash Iron Dome,” says weapons scientist Richard Lloyd, author of a research paper that calls into question the effectiveness of Israel’s now famous rocket-defense system. “We’re trying to help Iron Dome. The way to help Iron Dome is to identify some of its problems.”

Representatives for the Israel Defense Forces claim that Iron Dome has been about 90 percent effective in knocking down Hamas missiles fired from Gaza. Lloyd and a handful of other outside experts, including Theodore Postol of Massachusetts Institute of Technology, have been challenging the IDF’s assertions on Iron Dome’s success rate since at least 2012.

On Monday, Lloyd e-mailed me a copy of a 28-page analysis that’s the most detailed critique yet of the holes in the Iron Dome system—holes so big that, if he’s right, would justify calling it Iron Sieve. He says his paper is based entirely on open-source documents and observations and was cleared for public release by the Pentagon in late May.

Lloyd wrote the paper for Tesla Laboratories, a defense contractor in Arlington, Va., for which he is a consultant, and plans to post it on the Internet “sometime.” He spent more than two decades at Raytheon (RTN) and was a past engineering fellow at Raytheon Integrated Defense Systems.

The strength of Lloyd’s critique is that ordinary people can evaluate the effectiveness of Iron Dome just by looking up in the sky at the contrails of the antimissile system’s Tamir interceptors. If it’s working properly, the interceptor missiles shoot upward and meet incoming Hamas rockets as they fall to the ground at a steep angle. The contrails are short and go straight skyward. If it’s not working, the contrails form loop-de-loops as the interceptors chase after the rockets and catch them from the side or behind.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-07-21/israels-iron-dome-weapons-expert-warns-of-major-flaws

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
52. Thanks, interesting.
Tue Jul 22, 2014, 06:01 PM
Jul 2014

Didn't know the rockets used dynamite.

I think I'll leave the argument about Iron Dome to the experts, but I do find the idea of the spray of rods odd, not the way you would like to do it.

Jefferson23

(30,099 posts)
53. I would not know and would need to defer but I find the politics of it interesting too..big bucks
Tue Jul 22, 2014, 06:09 PM
Jul 2014

attached.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
54. Oh yeah. Always a cash cow since Raygun started it, the anti-missile stuff.
Tue Jul 22, 2014, 06:17 PM
Jul 2014

They had all sorts of fancy ideas in the beginning. But the physics is hard. To be agile enough it has to be small, to do the job and have range it has to be big. Fixed targets are much easier, and we were talking about the problems you get into when you want to be really accurate about position. The laser ranging device they have is clever.

Jefferson23

(30,099 posts)
59. The cost is crazy and it's not there yet..I don't want to even think about how much more
Tue Jul 22, 2014, 07:06 PM
Jul 2014

money they'll use to make "peace".

I do appreciate your tech info.though..thanks.

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