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friendly_iconoclast

(15,333 posts)
Sun Jan 12, 2014, 06:44 PM Jan 2014

Factose intolerance amongst the restrictionistas

They really don't like statistics, as see:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12625502

Wonder how this is going to be spun by the NRA



In Minnesota,

"Since the "shall issue" permit law went on the books a decade ago, the Bureau of Criminal Apprehension has recorded five instances of permit holders justifiably using a firearm. During that same timeframe, permit holders have committed 124 firearm-related crimes."

Seems to contradict that old saw of the NRA of more guns, less crimes.


http://blogs.citypages.com/blotter/2013/02/minnesota_gun_permit_holders_five_justifiable_firearm_uses_124_crimes_on_record_since_2003.php

That's out of how many permit holders in Minnesota? The post in GCRA elides that number.
Unfortunately for them, one meanyhead commenter in the linked article came up with
the number
-and got insulted for providing factual information:


_Joe_ Feb 25, 2013

To really put things in perspective, you not only have to take into account the unreported data, but also this:

120,000 people have carry permits in MN

124 crimes over a decade means that 0.1% of the people with carry permits have committed firearms related crimes. This also does not require a "victim" and could include improper transport, carrying somewhere you're not supposed to, carrying with a BAL of more than .04, etc..


MicheleBachmann Feb 27, 2013

@_Joe_ You are spouting their bullshit made up talking points. Guns cause murder and suicides. It's a fact.

_Joe_
_Joe_ Feb 27, 2013

@MicheleBachmann I'm not making up anything. And I don't need talking points. I have my own opinions. What I DID do, was cite the Star Tribune figures that came out recently and then applied simple math.


Willful ignorance, anyone?
7 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Factose intolerance amongst the restrictionistas (Original Post) friendly_iconoclast Jan 2014 OP
You missed the point. It's not how many residents have a permit, it's .... Scuba Jan 2014 #1
No honest social scientist or statistician would draw that 25 times more likely conclusion. NYC_SKP Jan 2014 #2
Not actually accurate gejohnston Jan 2014 #3
The point was, ANYTHING can be deemed a "talking point" by you lot friendly_iconoclast Jan 2014 #4
I don't blame you for not wanting to to discuss the (low) crime rate amongst permit holders friendly_iconoclast Jan 2014 #6
Another part Duckhunter935 Jan 2014 #5
This is why members are blocked from the other group: NYC_SKP Jan 2014 #7
 

Scuba

(53,475 posts)
1. You missed the point. It's not how many residents have a permit, it's ....
Sun Jan 12, 2014, 07:10 PM
Jan 2014

... that permit holders are 25 times more likely to commit crime than stop one.

Willful ignorance, perhaps?

 

NYC_SKP

(68,644 posts)
2. No honest social scientist or statistician would draw that 25 times more likely conclusion.
Sun Jan 12, 2014, 07:20 PM
Jan 2014

It simply can't be done.

The incidents of crimes are necessarily reported and counted, while the justifiable uses are not reported in the same fashion.

We don't really know the numbers, there might be three times as many crimes so the truth might be 75 times more likely.

All we can say is that 25 times as many reports are recorded, and nothing more.

gejohnston

(17,502 posts)
3. Not actually accurate
Sun Jan 12, 2014, 07:23 PM
Jan 2014

because you are only counting the number killed. It doesn't count the number wounded, and recovered to stand trial (multiply by ten) then there is the much larger number of deterred by no shots fired (depending on the study, is quite large to astronomical. The FBI and CDC leans towards the 100K per year nationwide.)

 

friendly_iconoclast

(15,333 posts)
4. The point was, ANYTHING can be deemed a "talking point" by you lot
Sun Jan 12, 2014, 07:29 PM
Jan 2014

The metric seems to be 'things I'd rather dismiss than discuss'...

 

friendly_iconoclast

(15,333 posts)
6. I don't blame you for not wanting to to discuss the (low) crime rate amongst permit holders
Sun Jan 12, 2014, 08:00 PM
Jan 2014

That was what the linked article and OP wanted to elide- after all it
kind of ruins the 'bad for society'/"blood in the streets" meme beloved by you lot:

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/report-on-conceal-and-carry-high-costs-no-benefit-51592707.html

http://www.citypages.com/2008-10-08/news/settled-dust-reveals-concealed-carry-stalemate/

The bill's passage came with a firestorm of protest and debate. Opponents feared the effects of an increasingly armed populace. Then-state Sen. Dean Johnson said, "This state will forever be changed, and not for the positive."

His colleague, then-state Sen. Wes Skoglund, was more emphatic in his protest, wearing a bulletproof vest on the floor of the Senate and boldly declaring, "People are going to die because of this bill. This bill is going to make Minnesota a far more dangerous place to live."


All of a sudden, the new meme is "Well, it's really not all that effective"

Y'all just can't seem to keep your stories straight...
 

Duckhunter935

(16,974 posts)
5. Another part
Sun Jan 12, 2014, 07:46 PM
Jan 2014
As the Star Tribune reports, the "justifiable use" number cited by the BCA is low, as some instances have gone unreported. For instance, there have been three much publicized cases of permit holders legally using guns in Minneapolis since 2010, but city officials apparently didn't realize they're legally mandated to report those cases to the BCA until the requirement was brought to their attention by a reporter.

Furthermore, John Munson, owner of Bill's Gun Shop in Robbinsdale (Check out "John Monson, owner of Bill's Gun Shop: 'The bad guys don't really care what the law is'&quot , pointed out to the Strib that the BCA numbers don't include instances "when a firearm deters an actual crime from taking place."

"Visibility or knowledge of a firearm is a deterrent, but those don't get reported," Munson added.


I agree with this. Bad data in equals garbage out.
 

NYC_SKP

(68,644 posts)
7. This is why members are blocked from the other group:
Sun Jan 12, 2014, 08:19 PM
Jan 2014

The bogus claims can't stand up to scrutiny.

Bogus, literally!

As in the fraud, Professor Carl T. Bogus, author of the now discredited screed titled, "The Hidden History of the Second Amendment".

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