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SecularMotion

(7,981 posts)
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 04:16 PM Oct 2015

How many guns are in America?

The American Public Health Association joins the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence in a national summit in Washington DC to tackle gun violence. They describe the issue as “one of the biggest public health issues facing America”.

But you wouldn’t know it from looking at the state of gun research.

Ask one of the dozen or so active firearms researchers in the United States, and they won’t be able to answer the fundamental question: how many guns are in America?

In addition to a 1996 ban on federal funding for firearms research that is cited as one of the most onerous obstacles to treating gun violence as a public health issue, states have passed dozens of laws that make once-public data on gun ownership confidential.

https://www.rawstory.com/2015/10/how-many-guns-are-in-america-a-web-of-state-secrecy-means-no-one-knows/
20 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
 

beevul

(12,194 posts)
2. Well, it IS the brady bunch...
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 04:47 PM
Oct 2015

I have yet to see a so called 'gun violence prevention' group, that differentiates in any meaningful way between suicides and actual gun violence.

jmg257

(11,996 posts)
4. Easy enough to know how many new ones are sold a year - FBI
Fri Oct 30, 2015, 02:31 PM
Oct 2015

keeps that info re:NCIS.

As for 'the starting point' - good luck with that!

At near 20 MILLION new ones bought a year recently, it certainly is a shit-load!

 

SecularMotion

(7,981 posts)
5. Then deduct the numbers of firearms seized and destroyed each year by law enforcement.
Fri Oct 30, 2015, 02:42 PM
Oct 2015

Last edited Fri Oct 30, 2015, 07:09 PM - Edit history (1)

NICS data is not an accurate gauge of gun sales.

Not all background checks result in gun sales and checks are also used for other purposes, such as permit-issuing/renewal.

jmg257

(11,996 posts)
8. Wow - so they want to know EXACTLY how many guns there are??
Fri Oct 30, 2015, 03:04 PM
Oct 2015

EXACTLY how many - In America?!?

VERY good luck with that! Wouldn't matter how much money they spend to try to find out.

krispos42

(49,445 posts)
19. The trade groups for the firearm industry thank you for your position
Fri Oct 30, 2015, 10:50 PM
Oct 2015

And wish you luck in getting used guns destroyed so they can make new ones.


Ford, GM, Honda, Toyota, and Chrysler would request you follow the same legislative agenda with drunk drivers, drug traffickers, and people who break down on the highway.

Straw Man

(6,613 posts)
15. Correction.
Fri Oct 30, 2015, 06:56 PM
Oct 2015
NCIS data is not an accurate gauge of gun sales.

Do you mean NICS? The Naval Criminal Investigation Service has nothing to do with background checks for gun sales.

Not all background checks result in gun sales and checks are also used for other purposes, such as permit-issuing/renewal.

A NICS background check cannot be used for any purpose than the purchase of a gun. It must be initiated by the holder of a Federal Firearms License, and is pursuant to the completion of a Form 4473, Firearms Transaction Record.
 

SecularMotion

(7,981 posts)
16. It's fixed. I copied the typo from the post I replied to.
Fri Oct 30, 2015, 07:21 PM
Oct 2015

[div][center][/center]

Some Kentucky permit holders are subject to monthly background checks.

North Carolina conducted checks for a large group of existing permit holders in March 2014.

In California, a technical issue caused NICS queries to be submitted multiple times in March 2015.

http://www.governing.com/gov-data/gun-background-checks-by-state-nics-chart.html


Background checks are also required when owners pawn their weapons.

The former pawnshop exemption for background checks on individuals who are redeeming firearms ceased to exist on November 30, 1998. NICS background checks are required for the transfer of redeemed firearms, including both handguns and long guns.

https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/general-information/fact-sheet

Straw Man

(6,613 posts)
17. Interesting.
Fri Oct 30, 2015, 08:48 PM
Oct 2015
Some Kentucky permit holders are subject to monthly background checks.

North Carolina conducted checks for a large group of existing permit holders in March 2014.

In California, a technical issue caused NICS queries to be submitted multiple times in March 2015.

http://www.governing.com/gov-data/gun-background-checks-by-state-nics-chart.html

That would certainly skew the KY and NC results. I was not aware that state agencies could do this. An accurate number should still be possible to determine by computing the number of permit holders and number of months they have held their permits.

The NC data is too vague to yield a procedure. As for CA, though, multiple submissions should not lead to multiple approvals/denials. The latter data should be accurate.

Background checks are also required when owners pawn their weapons.

For all practical tabulation purposes, this is equivalent to a "sale" -- a firearms that was on the shelf goes back into circulation.

In any case, given the number of firearms that were out there pre-NICS, it would be impossible to come up with any reasonable estimate short of doing a "gun census," and we all know how wildly inaccurate that would be.
 

beevul

(12,194 posts)
7. "...1996 ban on federal funding for firearms research..."
Fri Oct 30, 2015, 03:02 PM
Oct 2015
"...1996 ban on federal funding for firearms research..."


There was no ban on 'research'. There was a ban on lobbying.

Its hard to take seriously, a piece containing such a large lie.
 

SecularMotion

(7,981 posts)
9. It had the same effect as a ban
Fri Oct 30, 2015, 03:41 PM
Oct 2015
In 1993, the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) published an article by Arthur Kellerman and colleagues, “Gun ownership as a risk factor for homicide in the home,” which presented the results of research funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The study found that keeping a gun in the home was strongly and independently associated with an increased risk of homicide. The article concluded that rather than confer protection, guns kept in the home are associated with an increase in the risk of homicide by a family member or intimate acquaintance. Kellerman was affiliated at the time with the department of internal medicine at the University of Tennessee. He went on to positions at Emory University, and he currently holds the Paul O’Neill Alcoa Chair in Policy Analysis at the RAND Corporation.

The 1993 NEJM article received considerable media attention, and the National Rifle Association (NRA) responded by campaigning for the elimination of the center that had funded the study, the CDC’s National Center for Injury Prevention. The center itself survived, but Congress included language in the 1996 Omnibus Consolidated Appropriations Bill (PDF, 2.4MB) for Fiscal Year 1997 that “none of the funds made available for injury prevention and control at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention may be used to advocate or promote gun control.” Referred to as the Dickey amendment after its author, former U.S. House Representative Jay Dickey (R-AR), this language did not explicitly ban research on gun violence. However, Congress also took $2.6 million from the CDC’s budget — the amount the CDC had invested in firearm injury research the previous year — and earmarked the funds for prevention of traumatic brain injury. Dr. Kellerman stated in a December 2012 article in the Journal of the American Medical Association, “Precisely what was or was not permitted under the clause was unclear. But no federal employee was willing to risk his or her career or the agency's funding to find out. Extramural support for firearm injury prevention research quickly dried up.”

http://www.apa.org/science/about/psa/2013/02/gun-violence.aspx

gejohnston

(17,502 posts)
10. yet better research is being done by the DoJ's
Fri Oct 30, 2015, 03:58 PM
Oct 2015

National Institute for Justice. They are certainly better than the schlock put out by the likes of Hemenway, Kellerman, and Wintemute

http://www.nij.gov/topics/crime/gun-violence/prevention/pages/welcome.aspx

 

beevul

(12,194 posts)
14. And people, right here on DU...
Fri Oct 30, 2015, 06:23 PM
Oct 2015
Kellerman stated in a December 2012 article in the Journal of the American Medical Association, “Precisely what was or was not permitted under the clause was unclear. But no federal employee was willing to risk his or her career or the agency's funding to find out. Extramural support for firearm injury prevention research quickly dried up.”



And people, right here on DU, claim that "gun humpers" are cowards.

I tend to believe, that this was a case of "if we can't do it our way and how we want to, we're not going to do it at all, and we're going to blame someone else for it".

krispos42

(49,445 posts)
18. Oh, SecMo, you and I have been through this before
Fri Oct 30, 2015, 10:34 PM
Oct 2015

How about the "Annual Firearms Manufacturers And Export Report" that the ATF does every year?

https://www.atf.gov/resource-center/data-statistics


Let's see now...


In 2013, there were made in the United States:

4,441,726 semi-automatic handguns,
725,282 revolvers,
3,979,570 rifles,
1,203,072 shotguns,
495,142 misc. guns.

Total: 10,844,792
Exported was 393,121

Net domestic total: 10,451,671
Total imported: 5,539,539
Grand net total: 15,991,210


Now, if you'll recall, this is the point where you tell me that just because they make them that doesn't mean they sold them. After all, a manufacturing company with overall profit margins in the single digits has TONS of money to buy TONS of raw materials, pay plenty of wages to their workers, to produce far more guns per year, year after year after year, than they can sell.

Or something like that, even though the report states on the front page "FOR PURPOSES OF THIS REPORT ONLY, "PRODUCTION" IS DEFINED AS: FIREARMS, INCLUDING SEPARATE FRAMES OR RECEIVERS, ACTIONS OR
BARRELED ACTIONS, MANUFACTURED AND DISPOSED OF IN COMMERCE
DURING THE CALENDAR YEAR."




Now let's compare to, say, 2007.

1,219,664 semi-automatic handguns
391,334 revolvers
1,610,923 rifles
645,231 shotguns
55,461 misc. guns.

Total: 3,922,613
Exported was 204,782

Net domestic total: 3,717,831
Total imported: 2,743,993
Grand net total: 6,461,824



Gee, domestic firearms manufacturing almost tripled in a six-year period. Gun imports doubled. But all those guns are just sitting in warehouses and not being sold.

https://www.atf.gov/sites/default/files/assets/statistics/CommerceReport/firearms_commerce_annual_statistical_report_2014.pdf

https://www.atf.gov/file/3341/download

https://www.atf.gov/file/55166/download



In 2007, the ratio of NICS checks (your numbers in post#16) to guns sold in the U.S. (my numbers) was 1.73:1
In 2013, the ratio was 1.32:1. That's a pretty big difference but still indicative. Every 3 NICS checks equals about 2 guns sold.

discntnt_irny_srcsm

(18,470 posts)
20. As best I can figure, there are a bit more than 600,000,000...
Sat Oct 31, 2015, 12:01 AM
Oct 2015

...guns in private hands worldwide and about half of those are here in the US.

Hope this helps.

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