Why people with no religion are projected to decline as a share of the worlds population

[Mosby]

For years, the percentage of Americans who do not identify with any religion has been rising, a trend similar to what has been happening in much of Europe (including the United Kingdom). Despite this, in coming decades, the global share of religiously unaffiliated people is actually expected to fall, according to Pew Research Center’s new study on the future of world religions.

To be clear, the total number of religiously unaffiliated people (which includes atheists, agnostics and those who do not identify with any religion in particular) is expected to rise in absolute terms, from 1.17 billion in 2015 to 1.20 billion in 2060. But this growth is projected to occur at the same time that other religious groups – and the global population overall – are growing even faster.

These projections, which take into account demographic factors such as fertility, age composition and life expectancy, forecast that people with no religion will make up about 13% of the world’s population in 2060, down from roughly 16% as of 2015.

This relative decline is largely attributable to the fact that religious “nones” are, on average, older and have fewer children than people who are affiliated with a religion. In 2015, for instance, the median age of people who belong to any of the world’s religions was 29, compared with 36 among the unaffiliated. And between 2010 and 2015, adherents of religions are estimated to have given birth to an average of 2.45 children per woman, compared with an average of 1.65 children among the unaffiliated.

-snip-

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/04/07/why-people-with-no-religion-are-projected-to-decline-as-a-share-of-the-worlds-population/

[Angry Dragon]

1. Let the gods sort it out

[guillaumeb]

3. Recommended.

An interesting article.

[PdxSean]

4. Religion is now about politics and wealth.

If American "Christians" actually tried living Christ-like lives, religion here might not be in such a free fall. The reality is that the majority of evangelicals voted for Trump because he does in-fact represent American "Christian" values. Unfortunately, those values have little to do with Christ.

[Lordquinton]

6. Now?

When did that change?

[msongs]

5. religions are male dominated. oppressed women will be having lots of babies to keep religious men

happy

[DavidDvorkin]

7. This assumes that people born into a religion remain there

That's true in general, but it's also true that most atheists are made, not born. Most of us were born into a religion but then became atheists.

[Gore1FL]

10. Exactly.

The article linked below is from an organization who is trying to stop the abandonment of religion by young people. It states, "60-80% of college freshman who claim to be Christian will walk away from Christianity by the time they are college seniors." I have a hard time believing the overall trend is restricted to college students or Americans. Technology has an interesting way of challenging the God of the Gaps.

http://coldcasechristianity.com/2016/christian-case-makers-young-people-ought-to-be-our-jury-2/

In the unlikely event groups such as the one the article comes from stem the hemorrhaging by 90%, there is a still a huge member loss that religion is likely to recoup.

[trotsky]

8. Seems to be a fatal flaw in this analysis.

These projections, which take into account demographic factors such as fertility, age composition and life expectancy, forecast that people with no religion will make up about 13% of the world’s population in 2060, down from roughly 16% as of 2015.

There is a huge factor that isn't mentioned: the rate of people leaving religion. That's always what has caused the most gains in the non-believing population, and the rate has only increased lately.

[NeoGreen]

9. Yep, it is just more Whistling Past the Graveyard (nt)