Religion
Related: About this forumExodus: Why Americans are Leaving Religion
https://www.prri.org/research/prri-rns-poll-nones-atheist-leaving-religion/
Exodus: Why Americans are Leaving Religion - and Why Theyre Unlikely to Come Back
Betsy Cooper, Daniel Cox, Ph.D., Rachel Lienesch, Robert P. Jones, Ph.D.
The Rise of the Unaffiliated
The American religious landscape has undergone substantial changes in recent years. However, one of the most consequential shifts in American religion has been the rise of religiously unaffiliated Americans. This trend emerged in the early 1990s. In 1991, only six percent of Americans identified their religious affiliation as none, and that number had not moved much since the early 1970s. By the end of the 1990s, 14% of the public claimed no religious affiliation. The rate of religious change accelerated further during the late 2000s and early 2010s, reaching 20% by 2012. Today, one-quarter (25%) of Americans claim no formal religious identity, making this group the single largest religious group in the U.S.
The Decline of Religious Affiliation Among Young Adults
Today, nearly four in ten (39%) young adults (ages 18-29) are religiously unaffiliatedthree times the unaffiliated rate (13%) among seniors (ages 65 and older). While previous generations were also more likely to be religiously unaffiliated in their twenties, young adults today are nearly four times as likely as young adults a generation ago to identify as religiously unaffiliated. In 1986, for example, only 10% of young adults claimed no religious affiliation.
Among young adults, the religiously unaffiliated dwarf the percentages of other religious identifications: Catholic (15%), white evangelical Protestant (9%), white mainline Protestant (8%), black Protestant (7%), other non-white Protestants (11%), and affiliation with a non-Christian religion (7%).
The age gap has also widened over the past several decades. Ten years ago, each age cohort was only somewhat more likely to be unaffiliated than the one preceding it. Today, there are only modest differences between middle-aged Americans (age 50 64) and seniors, but there is a substantial gap between Americans over the age of 50 (15%) and those under the age of 50 (33%).
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-white-evangelicals-sacrificing-the-future-in-search-of-the-past/
MineralMan
(146,192 posts)It's getting steeper, and accelerating its growth. Not surprising, really.
NeoGreen
(4,030 posts)..input the data in excel and overlay some trend lines:
Black dotted line is a 2-order polynomial, blue is exponential and green is linear.
All three are projected forward 25 years.
So, the polynomial with the best R^2 suggests we will hit 50% unaffiliated in about 20 years.
MineralMan
(146,192 posts)and doing rough mental projections. Based on your Excel projections, it does look like the 2-order polynomial curve is the best match.
However, either the exponential or polynomial curve works just fine with what I imagined.
Thanks again!
NeoGreen
(4,030 posts)...I made a 2-order polynomial trend line (Red) for just the data between 1998 and 2016, which suggest we will achieve 50% before 2030.
(ok, back to work now)
MineralMan
(146,192 posts)periods, though, as it has previously. So, I think your first polynomial curve is probably a better fit.
NeoGreen
(4,030 posts)Once you're well into the curve, there is usually no turning back, no flattening...
Case-in-point:
muriel_volestrangler
(101,154 posts)The rate of increase, compared to the current population, was largest around 1987 (there expressed as the shortest doubling time). The absolute increase, in terms of the time taken to add another billion, also appears to have passed - they think it took 12 years to got from 4 to 5 billion (1975 to 1987), and 12 years for each of the next 2 billion, but to go from 7 to 8 billion will take 13 years.
NeoGreen
(4,030 posts)...to highlight the nature of an exponential curve.
But as an analogy it's not perfect, and with population there are physical limits to our metaphorical petri dish.
As for unaffiliated, it will flatten as we approach 100%.
Fresh_Start
(11,330 posts)they are driving all people to be less religiously affiliated
Act_of_Reparation
(9,116 posts)If you are raised in, say, a liberal Christian household, what are the fundies to you? How would their faith affect yours? It's not like the fundies are behaving in a remarkably different manner today than they were a hundred years ago. Why are we seeing these shifts now?
Wider access to better education, maybe. Wider access to information, perhaps. The near universal possession of cameras and video recording equipment. All of these things make it difficult for superstition to thrive.
Phoenix61
(16,954 posts)Church provides a place for social interaction and the opportunity to form close personal relationships outside of work. Previous generations understood the importance of this. I'm not sure younger folks do although I'm inclined to think groups like Indivisble are fulfilling those functions. I've often joked that if you don't go to church and don't drink, how do you meet people?
MineralMan
(146,192 posts)the younger generation will just text each other to set up a virtual session. They're already not getting together in groups as much as they used to, and often never even talk to acquaintances. Once virtual connections are possible, I suppose that will cause even greater isolation.
I don't know...
zipplewrath
(16,646 posts)I suspect it will be more purpose driven organizations. Then of course there are the dating apps.
But I suspect, and have sensed, a rise in Kiwanis, Rotary, and other organizations with charitable purposes or efforts.
no_hypocrisy
(45,774 posts)Voltaire2
(12,626 posts)Act_of_Reparation
(9,116 posts)Plus, Satan has better music.