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NeoGreen

(4,030 posts)
Thu Jan 25, 2018, 03:21 PM Jan 2018

Exodus: Why Americans are Leaving Religion

https://www.prri.org/research/prri-rns-poll-nones-atheist-leaving-religion/




Exodus: Why Americans are Leaving Religion - and Why They’re Unlikely to Come Back
Betsy Cooper, Daniel Cox, Ph.D., Rachel Lienesch, Robert P. Jones, Ph.D.


The Rise of the Unaffiliated

The American religious landscape has undergone substantial changes in recent years. However, one of the most consequential shifts in American religion has been the rise of religiously unaffiliated Americans. This trend emerged in the early 1990s. In 1991, only six percent of Americans identified their religious affiliation as “none,” and that number had not moved much since the early 1970s. By the end of the 1990s, 14% of the public claimed no religious affiliation. The rate of religious change accelerated further during the late 2000s and early 2010s, reaching 20% by 2012. Today, one-quarter (25%) of Americans claim no formal religious identity, making this group the single largest “religious group” in the U.S.

The Decline of Religious Affiliation Among Young Adults

Today, nearly four in ten (39%) young adults (ages 18-29) are religiously unaffiliated—three times the unaffiliated rate (13%) among seniors (ages 65 and older). While previous generations were also more likely to be religiously unaffiliated in their twenties, young adults today are nearly four times as likely as young adults a generation ago to identify as religiously unaffiliated. In 1986, for example, only 10% of young adults claimed no religious affiliation.

Among young adults, the religiously unaffiliated dwarf the percentages of other religious identifications: Catholic (15%), white evangelical Protestant (9%), white mainline Protestant (8%), black Protestant (7%), other non-white Protestants (11%), and affiliation with a non-Christian religion (7%).

The age gap has also widened over the past several decades. Ten years ago, each age cohort was only somewhat more likely to be unaffiliated than the one preceding it. Today, there are only modest differences between middle-aged Americans (age 50 – 64) and seniors, but there is a substantial gap between Americans over the age of 50 (15%) and those under the age of 50 (33%).




https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-white-evangelicals-sacrificing-the-future-in-search-of-the-past/
16 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Exodus: Why Americans are Leaving Religion (Original Post) NeoGreen Jan 2018 OP
Well, that has the look of an exponential curve. MineralMan Jan 2018 #1
Your comment provoke me to... NeoGreen Jan 2018 #8
Thanks for doing that. I was just eyeballing the curve MineralMan Jan 2018 #9
Ok, last one... NeoGreen Jan 2018 #10
The curve will probably have some flattening MineralMan Jan 2018 #11
I dunno... NeoGreen Jan 2018 #13
But with world population, there is a flattening, happening right now muriel_volestrangler Jan 2018 #14
Sure, it's just an analogy/metaphore... NeoGreen Jan 2018 #15
So there is something we can be thankful to the evangelical and catholic fundies about Fresh_Start Jan 2018 #2
I don't think that's accurate. Act_of_Reparation Jan 2018 #16
I wonder of social clubs will grow? Phoenix61 Jan 2018 #3
Once interactive virtual sex becomes a reality, MineralMan Jan 2018 #4
Dubious zipplewrath Jan 2018 #12
Where does The Ethical Culture Society fit in? no_hypocrisy Jan 2018 #5
Other. Voltaire2 Jan 2018 #6
Because it's long-winded and its jokes are terrible. Act_of_Reparation Jan 2018 #7

MineralMan

(146,192 posts)
1. Well, that has the look of an exponential curve.
Thu Jan 25, 2018, 03:25 PM
Jan 2018

It's getting steeper, and accelerating its growth. Not surprising, really.

NeoGreen

(4,030 posts)
8. Your comment provoke me to...
Thu Jan 25, 2018, 04:31 PM
Jan 2018

..input the data in excel and overlay some trend lines:



Black dotted line is a 2-order polynomial, blue is exponential and green is linear.

All three are projected forward 25 years.

So, the polynomial with the best R^2 suggests we will hit 50% unaffiliated in about 20 years.

MineralMan

(146,192 posts)
9. Thanks for doing that. I was just eyeballing the curve
Thu Jan 25, 2018, 04:35 PM
Jan 2018

and doing rough mental projections. Based on your Excel projections, it does look like the 2-order polynomial curve is the best match.

However, either the exponential or polynomial curve works just fine with what I imagined.

Thanks again!

NeoGreen

(4,030 posts)
10. Ok, last one...
Thu Jan 25, 2018, 04:41 PM
Jan 2018

...I made a 2-order polynomial trend line (Red) for just the data between 1998 and 2016, which suggest we will achieve 50% before 2030.


(ok, back to work now)

MineralMan

(146,192 posts)
11. The curve will probably have some flattening
Thu Jan 25, 2018, 04:52 PM
Jan 2018

periods, though, as it has previously. So, I think your first polynomial curve is probably a better fit.

NeoGreen

(4,030 posts)
13. I dunno...
Fri Jan 26, 2018, 09:23 AM
Jan 2018

Once you're well into the curve, there is usually no turning back, no flattening...

Case-in-point:

muriel_volestrangler

(101,154 posts)
14. But with world population, there is a flattening, happening right now
Sat Jan 27, 2018, 02:21 PM
Jan 2018
https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth#long-run-historical-perspective

The rate of increase, compared to the current population, was largest around 1987 (there expressed as the shortest doubling time). The absolute increase, in terms of the time taken to add another billion, also appears to have passed - they think it took 12 years to got from 4 to 5 billion (1975 to 1987), and 12 years for each of the next 2 billion, but to go from 7 to 8 billion will take 13 years.

NeoGreen

(4,030 posts)
15. Sure, it's just an analogy/metaphore...
Sat Jan 27, 2018, 04:10 PM
Jan 2018

...to highlight the nature of an exponential curve.

But as an analogy it's not perfect, and with population there are physical limits to our metaphorical petri dish.

As for unaffiliated, it will flatten as we approach 100%.

Fresh_Start

(11,330 posts)
2. So there is something we can be thankful to the evangelical and catholic fundies about
Thu Jan 25, 2018, 03:40 PM
Jan 2018

they are driving all people to be less religiously affiliated

Act_of_Reparation

(9,116 posts)
16. I don't think that's accurate.
Sat Jan 27, 2018, 04:51 PM
Jan 2018

If you are raised in, say, a liberal Christian household, what are the fundies to you? How would their faith affect yours? It's not like the fundies are behaving in a remarkably different manner today than they were a hundred years ago. Why are we seeing these shifts now?

Wider access to better education, maybe. Wider access to information, perhaps. The near universal possession of cameras and video recording equipment. All of these things make it difficult for superstition to thrive.

Phoenix61

(16,954 posts)
3. I wonder of social clubs will grow?
Thu Jan 25, 2018, 04:01 PM
Jan 2018

Church provides a place for social interaction and the opportunity to form close personal relationships outside of work. Previous generations understood the importance of this. I'm not sure younger folks do although I'm inclined to think groups like Indivisble are fulfilling those functions. I've often joked that if you don't go to church and don't drink, how do you meet people?

MineralMan

(146,192 posts)
4. Once interactive virtual sex becomes a reality,
Thu Jan 25, 2018, 04:14 PM
Jan 2018

the younger generation will just text each other to set up a virtual session. They're already not getting together in groups as much as they used to, and often never even talk to acquaintances. Once virtual connections are possible, I suppose that will cause even greater isolation.

I don't know...

zipplewrath

(16,646 posts)
12. Dubious
Thu Jan 25, 2018, 04:53 PM
Jan 2018

I suspect it will be more purpose driven organizations. Then of course there are the dating apps.
But I suspect, and have sensed, a rise in Kiwanis, Rotary, and other organizations with charitable purposes or efforts.

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