Scientists develop formula to calculate for a how long a conspiracy can stay a secret.

[DetlefK]

Last edited Thu Aug 31, 2017, 12:28 PM - Edit history (1)

http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0147905
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0147905&type=printable

It's from last year, but I guess, with Trump and Russia, the particular field is of renewed interest.

The scientists made some models for how a conspiracy behaves, and then filled in the holes by taking famous revealed conspiracies as "typical" conspiracies.

The result is a formula with which you can calculate how long it takes until a conspiracy of a certain size gets revealed because somebody talks.


Examples:

- The Moon Landing involved ~400,000 people. Climate Change also roughly 400,000 people. The probability that somebody on the inside would blow up the conspiracy reaches 90% after 3-4 years.

- The Vaccination Conspiracy would involve about 22,000. The probability for somebody to talk would reach 90% after about 25 years. If we assume that drug companies are part of the conspiracy, the number of people gets so high that the 90% probability comes after ~3 years.



Here's a chart for how many people your conspiracy may involve if you want the probability of failure to stay below 5%

5 years - 2531 people
10 years - 1257 people
15 years - 838 people
20 years - 628 people
25 years - 502 people
30 years - 418 people
40 years - 313 people
50 years - 251 people
100 years - 125 people






- "This is a 5-year-plan. And I'm afraid, including you we are 2532 people working at Specter."
- "Mr. Blofeld, No!"

[longship]

1. Conspiracy theories end up swallowing themselves.

The Moon Landing Hoax is a prime example. Likewise, the JFK Assassination Conspiracy, the UFO Conspiracies (all of them), and the GMO Monsanto conspiracies.

All end up being utter rubbish. The grand conspiracy argument never holds up. As I said, it is self-swallowing.

[shanny]

3. what are gmo monsanto conspiracies?

[longship]

4. Somehow all genetically modified organisms are done by Monsanto.

And anybody who supports genetically modified foods is a paid shill by Monsanto.

Of course, all of biology supports the fact that genetically modified organisms are no different in kind from what agriculture has been doing for over ten thousand years. They are safe. The anti-GMO folks just make shit up and blame everything on Monsanto, apparently the grand conspiracist. The science says they're wrong.

That's how conspiracy theories work. Hint: they don't

[shanny]

5. seems like a broad brush

the conspiracy on the part of big oil to hide / obfuscate climate change was not true because someone called it a conspiracy theory?

[longship]

7. Well, some conspiracies inevitably exist.

The big question is, How can one tell the difference?

My advice is to look at the facts.

1. What do we know?
2. How do we know it?

For me, science informs a lot of this stuff.

Anti-GMO == biology/agricultural science denial.
Anti-global warming == climate science denial.*
Creationism/intelligent design == biology denial.
JFK assassination crap == forensic science denial.
UFO space aliens == astronomy/astrophysics denial.

Don't get me started about Big Foot or the Flat Earth.

My best to you.


* a real conspiracy? Seems so.

[shanny]

2. I like it!

Of course, its utility as a debunking tool is dependent upon a belief in science.

[getting old in mke]

6. Fortunately

Science has a lot more than 400,000 conspirators, so news that it exists should come out in about 15 seconds...

[shanny]

9. ...

[TexasProgresive]

8. I wonder if they surveyed intelligence professionals

Both my Mom and my Dad held the highest clearances. My Mom even held a Q level as well as top secret. You can rest assured that they went to the graves without disclosing anything that was ever, EVER classified. Special forces people like my Dad never speak about their classified missions. That idiot who wrote a book claiming he killed bin Laden is likely a liar. No one in his unit will have anything to do with him. Regardless of whether he kill bin Laden or not is irrelevant - you don't make capital off of the mission.

[DetlefK]

10. The actor Christopher Lee was a british secret agent during WWII...

Even though it can be pieced together by evidence, he never confirmed it in an interview, even long after WWII. He took it to his grave.


While filming "Lord of the Rings", director Peter Jackson tried to explain to him what sounds a man makes when he's been stabbed in the back.
Christopher Lee's response?
"I know what it sounds like."