updated infection model

[Pobeka]

https://imgur.com/a/E4mdzgH

I changed the model from a pure SIR model. I haven't quite got the formulas worked out (still simple), but not useful for absolute numbers. But it is worthy of relative changes given social distancing.

Important point is that social distancing still can have a dramatic impact, it's not too late. That's the message I think is key.

Looking for feedback.

[mercuryblues]

1. giving this a kick

because I would also like to read some feedback.

[Sherman A1]

2. K&R

[Wounded Bear]

3. Social distancing has proven effective historically...

but it's nice to see it displayed graphically.

[Canoe52]

4. KnR!

[Pobeka]

5. Got estimate of absolute numbers now.

https://imgur.com/a/pvr05NU

Assumed a new case is infectious for 5 days before being quarantined.

Keep an array of new cases by day.

Increment the day (call it today). Look back 5 days, new cases today increases by the sum of the new cases over the past 5 days * R0/5 * (susceptible population / total population).

Still pretty simple, really.

The delayed social distancing line (33%) is so similar to the undelayed because in the delay case you've essentially started with a higher number of cases at the point the social distancing takes place.