Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars

[bananas]

Long-term and current global trends – including the financial Panic of 2008, the great recession of 2008-10, and geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf and in North Korea – signal that a new, 1960s-style critical state is expected by mid-decade. This should trigger a new, Apollo-level, international Space Age.

Interesting stuff, hope it happens.

http://21stcenturywaves.com/2012/04/08/fractal-maslow-windows-and-the-near-term-colonization-of-mars/

Published by Dr. Bruce Cordell

Please Note: This is my Abstract for The 15th Annual International Mars Society Convention, August, 2012, in Pasadena, CA.

Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars

Self-Organized Criticality (SOC) is an emergent property of complex systems whereby they organize themselves into a critical state such that rapid changes, including catastrophes, can occur.

In 1998, based on power-law plots like this, Roberts and Turcotte concluded that “World order behaves as a self-organized critical system independent of the efforts made to control and stabilize interactions between people and countries.”


SOC is indicated for space exploration by the following: 1) Apollo is the most recent in a string of rhythmic, twice-per-century clusters of great human explorations, large macro-engineering projects (MEP), and major wars, back to Lewis and Clark, suggesting punctuated equilibrium, 2) Based on their power law size-frequency distribution, Roberts & Turcotte (1998) showed that wars are SOC processes; my recent analysis of cost data suggests the same is true of NASA programs, and 3) Space programs obey Bak’s gap equation (1996), which describes the system’s evolution from weak SOC to the fractal, self organized critical state; i.e., a “Maslow Window.”

While in the critical state, large changes (e.g., in space, MEPs, and/or war) can rapidly occur in response to even a minor stimulus. The classic example is the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis which raised the stakes for the Moon Race, and suggests the road to the next critical state may also be bumpy.

Long-term and current global trends – including the financial Panic of 2008, the great recession of 2008-10, and geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf and in North Korea – signal that a new, 1960s-style critical state is expected by mid-decade. This should trigger a new, Apollo-level, international Space Age.

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Unfortunately only the first half-hour of the panel is on youtube:

Our Future in Space Panel - 15th Annual International Mars Society Convention

Published on Aug 10, 2012 by TheMarsSociety

Panelists:
Dr. Robert Zubrin, President of the Mars Society & Pioneer Astronautics
Story Musgrave, retired Astronaut and physician
Prof. J. Richard Gott, cosmologist from Princeton University
Dr. Bruce Cordell, former Mars mission planner General Dynamics

The Mars Society's 15th Annual Convention was held August 3-5 at the Pasadena Convention Center in Pasadena, California in the days leading up to the historic Mars Curiosity Rover landing on the night of Sunday, August 5th. The convention boasted several distinguished speakers as well as multi-track sessions with papers presented by independent scientists, researchers, and members of the International Mars Society.

[bananas]

1. He's been consistent with this timeline since at least 1996

From an article he wrote in 1996 at http://21stcenturywaves.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/1996.pdf

Space Policy 1996 12 (I) 45-57 Copyright © 1996, Published by Elsevier Seienee Limited Printed in Great Britain. ALI rights reserved 0265-9646(95)00032-1 0265-9646/961$15,

Forecasting the next major thrust into space

Bruce Cordell

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This analysis suggests strongly that humanity will have another shot at colonizing space. And, although it is possible that harbingers of the next major thrust into space may appear around 2015 or even before, a variety of indicators suggests that the culmination of this next major step into space (whatever form it takes) should materialize circa 2025. In effect, the future analog of the 1960's Apollo decade is expected to be 2015 to 2025. However, societal support for space may fade rapidly after 2025. If Earth-independent space colonies are not established on the Moon or elsewhere by the mid-2020s, it is unlikely that humanity will experience another Apollo-style, expansive decade until late in the twenty-first century.

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