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Warren Stupidity

(48,181 posts)
Mon Jan 26, 2015, 01:20 PM Jan 2015

The miracle of a bridge hand.*

53,644,737,765,488,792,839,237,440,000 to 1.

Every time you deal the cards, it's a miracle!


*Brought about by discussions elsewhere regarding the miracle of life on earth, the argument from improbability.

11 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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The miracle of a bridge hand.* (Original Post) Warren Stupidity Jan 2015 OP
I've got 'yer' bridge hand right here... TeeYiYi Jan 2015 #1
"Improbability" does not mean "impossibility". Curmudgeoness Jan 2015 #2
Take an ocean full of chemicals, heat gently and stir for a billion years. DetlefK Jan 2015 #7
I remember in one of my college biology classes Curmudgeoness Jan 2015 #9
Ask the average person bvf Jan 2015 #3
Ha! You're trying to put Las Vegas out of business, aren't you? onager Jan 2015 #5
Good Colonel Parker story. bvf Jan 2015 #6
My office "pool" story, is about the guy who every year... NeoGreen Jan 2015 #8
Why do they insist on moving to Ohio?? bvf Jan 2015 #10
Humans is dumb. AtheistCrusader Jan 2015 #11
As Lawrence Krauss says: AlbertCat Jan 2015 #4

Curmudgeoness

(18,219 posts)
2. "Improbability" does not mean "impossibility".
Mon Jan 26, 2015, 01:40 PM
Jan 2015

And when the improbable does happen, that does not mean "miracle". We still have a lot to learn about the beginnings of life on earth, but just because we do not have the answers as to how it occurred, it does not mean that the only explanation is that it had to be created by God. All it means is that we don't have all the answers yet. And I do believe that we will never have all the answers. So what?

DetlefK

(16,423 posts)
7. Take an ocean full of chemicals, heat gently and stir for a billion years.
Tue Jan 27, 2015, 07:56 AM
Jan 2015

And then improbable things eventually become real.

Curmudgeoness

(18,219 posts)
9. I remember in one of my college biology classes
Tue Jan 27, 2015, 01:18 PM
Jan 2015

that we learned about an experiment trying to replicate the conditions that produced life from chemical reactions.

The Miller–Urey experiment[1] (or Miller experiment)[2] was a chemical experiment that simulated the conditions thought at the time to be present on the early Earth, and tested the chemical origin of life. Specifically, the experiment tested Alexander Oparin's and J. B. S. Haldane's hypothesis that conditions on the primitive Earth favored chemical reactions that synthesized more complex organic compounds from simpler inorganic precursors. Considered to be the classic experiment investigating abiogenesis, it was conducted in 1952[3


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miller%E2%80%93Urey_experiment

We have to realize that we do not know all the conditions that came into play at that time on earth, so that Miller-Urey were able to create the building blocks of life, amino acids, is significant.

There have been further studies that have created other components of life since then. It really could be a matter of time and more specific information before some form of life can be recreated in a lab. But it doesn't matter to me whether it can be done or not. Just because we are unaware of one component in the atmosphere at the time does not mean that it is impossible for life to arise.

However, many of the important building blocks of life have indeed been created in a laboratory, including amino acids, self-replicating RNA molecules, and self-sealing and self-replicating lipid bubbles (ie, cell membranes) which are profound steps toward the goal of one day creating fully-synthetic life.


http://evolutionfaq.com/faq/have-scientists-ever-created-life-laboratory

 

bvf

(6,604 posts)
3. Ask the average person
Mon Jan 26, 2015, 02:34 PM
Jan 2015

whether rolling three consecutive snake-eyes with fair dice increases or decreases the chance of snake-eyes coming up on a fourth roll, and you'll get a good handle on the average person's grasp of probability and statistics.

onager

(9,356 posts)
5. Ha! You're trying to put Las Vegas out of business, aren't you?
Mon Jan 26, 2015, 04:07 PM
Jan 2015

Not long ago, somebody actually tried a simpler version of the dice-roll on me - the old coin-flip question:

"If you flip a coin and it comes up 'heads' three times, what are the odds it will come up 'tails' on the next flip?"

He must have thought I was an idiot. Which I have to admit is sometimes a fair bet.

But I gave him the right answer: "Assuming a fair coin, the odds are exactly the same as the first time you flipped it - 50/50."

I recently read a bio of a truly demented, crazy and amateur gambler who (like many of that type) thought he was an expert: "Colonel" Tom Parker, manager of Elvis Presley.

Parker loved roulette, and apparently believed he could stare at the roulette wheel and make it land on the right number, thru the sheer force of his will.

The Colonel didn't always want to mix with the hoi-polloi in the casino, so he often had a roulette wheel brought up to his suite. Where he would sometimes hedge by betting every number on the board.

Which may explain one story an old friend told about Parker - in the early 1960s, at one small Kentucky bank, Parker had a personal account holding about $7 million. A few years after Presley started playing Vegas, that account was empty. And Parker was a notorious tightwad, when it came to just about everything except gambling.

 

bvf

(6,604 posts)
6. Good Colonel Parker story.
Tue Jan 27, 2015, 05:55 AM
Jan 2015

Sad and crazy to piss money away like that, but Presley didn't always hang with the smartest people.

I used to tell the guy that ran a lotto pool (picking six numbers from one to 44, I think) in an office I worked in that I'd play as long as the numbers picked were 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. I got a really odd reaction to that.

NeoGreen

(4,031 posts)
8. My office "pool" story, is about the guy who every year...
Tue Jan 27, 2015, 09:32 AM
Jan 2015

...would come around during the super bowl and march madness and ask if I wanted in for $20....

and every time I would raise my arms in a touchdown stance and proclaim:

"WOO WHO!, I just won $20!"

After about the 5th year he stopped asking...

...after the 7th year he was indicted for providing kick backs to public officials for contracts...

I think he spent ~1 year in jail

Well dressed, overtly likable, everyone best bud...but still a dim jerk

I think he lives in ohio now...

 

AlbertCat

(17,505 posts)
4. As Lawrence Krauss says:
Mon Jan 26, 2015, 02:45 PM
Jan 2015

(paraphrasing)

"The universe is very old and very big and amazing coincidences happen all the time."

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