Winter Weather (Old Farmer's Almanac)
'Weather lore holds that “As the day lengthens, so the cold strengthens.” This will be true in the southwestern part of the nation this winter, but The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts a warmer and wetter winter for most of the country.
This year, winter officially begins on December 21 at 5:23 p.m., when the Sun reaches its greatest declination south of the celestial equator. The days around the 21st may be the shortest and darkest of the year, but this means only that we’ll see more and more sunlight until the vernal equinox around March 20.
This winter’s forecast may be welcome news if you like slightly warmer weather. With last winter’s weak La Niña most likely to be replaced by a weak El Niño, cold air masses will have difficulty making any prolonged inroads into the northern Plains, the Great Lakes, or northeastern states.
Aside from in the southwestern U.S., temperatures will be above normal this winter, as will precipitation, although the Southeast, southern California, the nation’s midsection, and parts of Alaska and Hawaii will have below-normal precipitation. Snowfall will be greater than normal in most of the Intermountain region, the higher elevations of the Southwest, and the nation’s midsection, but below normal in most other areas that receive snow.
January Heat Wave
The Roman god Janus is often depicted with two faces: one looking into the past, the other into the future. This year, most of the country can expect January temperatures to be within 1 or 2 degrees of normal, with some big exceptions in the southern Appalachians, southern Atlantic Corridor, Southeast, Florida, Deep South, Lower Lakes, Ohio Valley, Texas–Oklahoma, and High Plains, where temperatures will be from 6 to 8 degrees above normal. Precipitation may be slightly above normal in most regions, except for the Pacific Northwest, northern California, and the Deep South, where rainfall is expected to be 4 inches above normal. Florida, the Southeast, the Upper Midwest, Texas–Oklahoma, and southern California can expect a drier-than-normal month.
February Forecast
With its name coming from the Latin februa, “to cleanse,” February was traditionally host to the Roman Februalia, a festival of purification and atonement. This month, temperatures are looking to be slightly warmer than usual throughout the country, with the exceptions of the Pacific coast, Alaska, and the Desert Southwest. Most regions can expect temperatures to be 3 to 5 degrees above normal, but with an average temperature of 36°F, the High Plains will be a stunning 8 degrees above normal. Along the Gulf Coast, February is shaping up to be a dry month, with precipitation expected to be 1 to 2 inches below normal. In the Pacific Northwest, The Old Farmer’s Almanac is predicting 7 inches of precipitation—2 inches above normal.
How We Predict the Weather
The Old Farmer’s Almanac—America’s oldest and most popular Almanac—uses a unique, age-old formula that’s traditionally 80% accurate. Our weather forecasting methodology stems from a secret formula that was devised by our founder, Robert B. Thomas, in 1792.
Thomas believed that weather on Earth was influenced by sunspots, which are magnetic storms on the surface of the Sun. Notes about his formula are locked in a black box in our offices in Dublin, New Hampshire. Over the years, we have refined and enhanced this formula with state-of-the-art technology and modern scientific calculations, and last year our overall accuracy rate in forecasting the direction of temperature change from normal for the 2017–2018 winter was 83%.
If you want more specific winter weather predictions—including when to expect snow, rain, and sunny skies—and much more useful information, wit, and wisdom, you can get all of it plus a bundle of BONUSES with an Old Farmer’s Almanac Best Value Club Charter Membership!'
