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Wed Jul 10, 2019, 10:04 AM

Storm may push Mississippi River to tops of levees that protect New Orleans

Source: The Guardian

Storm may push Mississippi River to tops of levees that protect New Orleans

New Orleans is protected to river level of 20ft but was forecast to rise above flood stage to 19ft by Friday

Guardian staff and agencies
Wed 10 Jul 2019 15.16 BST Last modified on Wed 10 Jul 2019 15.50 BST

A tropical weather system was expected Wednesday to develop into a storm that could push the already swollen Mississippi River precariously close to the tops of levees that protect New Orleans.

The low pressure area was over water, south of the Florida Panhandle early Wednesday and was expected to strengthen into a storm as it moved west through the Gulf’s warm waters.

Forecasters say parts of Louisiana could see up to 12in (30.5cm) of rain by Monday, with heavier amounts possible in some spots.

Mississippi and Texas were also at risk of torrential rains.

The National Weather Service said New Orleans is protected to a river level of 20ft (6.1 meters) , but it was forecast to rise above flood stage to 19ft by Friday. That would mark the highest river level at New Orleans in nearly 70 years, and some experts argue, constitutes the city’s greatest test since the catastrophic flooding of Hurricane Katrina in 2005.


-snip-

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jul/10/mississippi-river-levees-new-orleans-rain-flooding

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Reply Storm may push Mississippi River to tops of levees that protect New Orleans (Original post)
Eugene Jul 2019 OP
dixiegrrrrl Jul 2019 #1
nitpicker Jul 2019 #2

Response to Eugene (Original post)

Wed Jul 10, 2019, 03:44 PM

1. Some streets in N.O. are already flooded from other storms

Severe storms trigger flash flood emergency around New Orleans as much more rainfall looms
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/severe-storms-trigger-flash-flood-emergency-around-new-orleans-as-much-more-rainfall-looms/70008778



and Barry is forecast to hit Louisiana coast and then turn due north, dumping rain the whole time, all over the state.

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Response to Eugene (Original post)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 03:52 AM

2. The latest from NWS

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...DISTURBANCE IS NOT A DEPRESSION YET BUT EXPECTED TO BE ONE
SOON...
...STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 88.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River northward to the Mouth of the Pearl
River
(snip)


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
27.5 North, longitude 88.2 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 5 mph (7 km/h), but a west-northwest motion is expected on
Friday followed by a northwestward track by early Saturday. On the
forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Louisiana
coast this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a
tropical storm later today, and could become a hurricane by late
Friday.

Although the thunderstorm activity is not well organized at this
time, the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression or
a tropical storm later today and Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
(snip)

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total additional rain
accumulations of 10 to 15 inches near and inland of the central Gulf
Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall
amounts of 20 inches.

Rainfall amounts exceeding 6 to 9 inches have already occurred
across portions of the New Orleans metropolitan area, which
has resulted in flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area by Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Friday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible tonight and Friday
across southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.
(snip)

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