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Sun Nov 1, 2020, 12:51 PM

Why dry weather this Election Day may boost Biden.

'John F. Kennedy won the 1960 presidential election by such a narrow margin that itís easy to imagine how history might have turned out differently. What if Kennedy had lost a key endorsement or Richard Nixon had better prepared for the first debate? What if it had rained on Election Day?

Unusually heavy rainfall dampens turnout among less reliable voters, according to a 2007 study. These voters tend to favor the Democratic candidate, particularly when a Republican is in power. Nixon needed rain to keep these voters from going to the polls. He didnít get it.

ďIn 1960, for instance, it was a remarkably clear day across the entire country. Had it rained that day, we probably would have had a Nixon presidency eight years earlier,Ē said Brad Gomez, a political scientist at Florida State University and lead author of the study, which simulated every presidential election from 1948 to 2000 under different weather. Researchers also found that rain in Pensacola, Fla., in 2000 may have cost Al Gore the presidency.

The study lent empirical backing to a maxim of campaign politics: Republicans should pray for rain. As recently as 2012, a poll from the Weather Channel found that Barack Obama supporters were more likely than Mitt Romney supporters to be deterred by rain.

But supporters of vice president Joe Biden may not have to worry about rain keeping their voters home.

The forecast for this Election Day calls for essentially no precipitation over the Lower 48, the lone exception being some showers in the typically rainy Pacific Northwest. Furthermore, temperatures will be mild over most of the nation. Highs are forecast to reach at least the 60s everywhere except the Pacific Northwest and Northeast.'>>>


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Reply Why dry weather this Election Day may boost Biden. (Original post)
elleng Nov 2020 OP
PutGramaOnThePhone Nov 2020 #1
elleng Nov 2020 #2
PutGramaOnThePhone Nov 2020 #3

Response to elleng (Original post)

Sun Nov 1, 2020, 02:11 PM

1. Here in Minnesota...

weíve had a couple of not insignificant snowfalls and depressingly early cold weather. The snow is gone and it looks like mid sixties for at least a week, after today. Hereís hoping mid sixties and anti-trump rage, inspires a massive turnout, riding to the finish line on impressive early voting numbers. Ok, maybe sufficient Election Day turnout on top of the early voting, is a more realistic hope, but at least it looks like the weather wonít have a dampening effect.

Weather aside, Iím amazed that so many trumpists manage to get dressed in the morning without injuring themselves, and are able to find their way out from under their rocks to go to work, or whatever else it is that they do: boat sinking, monster truck parades, voter suppression, cloud shouting, or what not.

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Response to PutGramaOnThePhone (Reply #1)

Sun Nov 1, 2020, 02:21 PM

2. Thanks for the info, and humor, Grama!

Welcome to DU.

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Response to elleng (Reply #2)

Sun Nov 1, 2020, 02:38 PM

3. Thanks for the...

welcome! There are so many nice, and smart, people around here. Not like over on 4chan, or 8chan where I was hanging around until the sun broke through my clouds last week - not really - I still have plenty of metaphorical dark clouds over my Scandinavian-American head, but Iím feeling a bit giddy, or maybe just lightheaded, today. As for 4chan, or 8chan, that is really, NOT REALLY.

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