Sandy Forecasting, NYC Weather & Storm Blog 2012

[LiveNudePolitics]

From NYC Weather & Storm Blog 2012
October 25th, 2012---: The 12z models are in. Let's start with the GFS first. The 12z Operational run has made a dramatic shift west on this run and now is in line with the CMC and NoGaps models in bringing Sandy into the NYC/Long Island area this Tuesday as a very powerful 940mb-950mb storm. The latest 12z GFDL Tropical Model is also in and shows a New Jersey land fall with a pressure of 925mb. I do not think it will be that low by the way. The models struggle with forecast pressure this far out. Why do we talk about the pressure you ask? Well, the lower the pressure the more powerful the storm is. Many of the forecast models have been showing land fall pressures anywhere from 925mb to 945mb, this would be unprecedented, not impossible, but certainly historic. And I'm not at this time buying that. My thinking (for now) is that the pressures will be more in the 950-960mb range. Still an extremely powerful storm regardless which should be taken seriously. The latest 12z ECMWF model is showing Sandy taking a hard northwest turn after 96 hours and coming ashore near Washington, DC. My thinking is the turn may be a bit more gradual than this but anywhere from DC to New England is still in play. Extra balloon soundings have been launched starting last night and this extra data is being ingested into the model runs. More data for the models to digest should bring things into focus over the next 24-48 hours. But it is becoming more and more likely that the Mid Atlantic and Northeast US will see direct impacts from Sandy late this weekend and into early next week. In terms of a time frame, it's looking like Monday into Tuesday right now. The models are still diverging a bit in that regard but remember, Sandy is enormous and her reach is far and wide so the weather will most likely begin going downhill here in the Northeast beginning on Sunday as it stands right now.
Read more:
http://www.severeweathervideo.com/nyc_storm_blog_12.html

[McCIoud]

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