Atlantic: Invest 96L; Pacific: Tropical Storm Karina, Tropical Storm Lowell, Invest 92E

[steve2470]

Atlantic:

Invest 96L



Last Updated 8/20/2014, 2:00:00 PM (Eastern Daylight Time)
Location 11.6 53.4W Movement W at 10 mph
Wind 30 MPH


Pacific:

Tropical Storm Karina



Last Updated 8/20/2014, 11:00:00 AM (Eastern Daylight Time)
Location 15.8N 136.6W Movement Nearly Stationary at 0 mph
Wind 60 MPH Pressure: 998 MB


Tropical Storm Lowell




Last Updated 8/20/2014, 11:00:00 AM (Eastern Daylight Time)
Location 19.1N 121.2W Movement NW at 5 mph
Wind 50 MPH Pressure: 996 MB


Invest 92E



Last Updated 8/20/2014, 2:00:00 PM (Eastern Daylight Time)
Location 8.5 94.7W Movement WNW at 10 mph
Wind 25 MPH

[littlemissmartypants]

1. Kicking. Thank you.

What do you forsee in the future of 96L?
Any resistance?

[steve2470]

2. here's what Dr. Masters says

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2767

Forecast for 96L
The wave should continue to organize over the next two days, and pass through the Lesser Antilles Islands Thursday night and Friday morning, bringing heavy rain showers and strong winds--particularly to the southern islands in the chain. The wave will then track west-northwest through the Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. The 0Z Wednesday runs of our three most reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, had one model, the UKMET, predicting development into a tropical depression south of Puerto Rico. All three models show that on Saturday, 96L will pass over or just south of the island of Hispaniola, whose rugged terrain would likely disrupt the storm. The 8 am EDT Wednesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the next five days. With dry air expected to be in the Caribbean, the moderate levels of wind shear would likely be able to drive the dry air into the circulation of 96L, keeping any development slow. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 30% and 50%, respectively. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance on Thursday afternoon, if necessary. If 96L does develop, it would likely be similar to Tropical Storm Bertha of early August while in the Caribbean--a disorganized system that struggles against dry air. The most likely day for development into a tropical depression is Friday, when the storm will be south of Puerto Rico.

[Galileo126]

3. To Steve2470:

I think you are doing an awesome job running the weather watchers group.

Keep us informed, dammit!

signed,

an astronomer

(we have to check the weather first before we can look up, let alone the implications of nasty weather to us all.)

[steve2470]

4. Thanks ! nt

[littlemissmartypants]

5. I concur. nt

Where is the :intergalactic: smilie?

Thanks Steve.


~Lmsp