Irma Shifting Forecasts: Its All a Matter of Probability.
'For much of last week, the predicted track of Hurricane Irma snaked across Florida from south to north. When it seemed to be headed toward Miami, residents on the Atlantic Coast feared the worst, and many on the west side of the state felt safer by comparison.
By Saturday, however, the storm track shifted to the west, putting Gulf Coast cities like Naples, Fort Myers and Tampa at risk of the most punishing winds and storm surge.
Floridians who had traveled from east coast cities to the west in search of safety were whipsawed, as were those living in the west; Collier County, which includes Naples, did not order its evacuation until Friday.
“We kind of thought ‘Oh well, maybe we’ve got some breathing room,’” said a spokeswoman in Collier County, Kate Albers. “And now it’s bearing down on us.”'>>>
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/10/us/forecast-irma-shift-florida.html?
