2016 Postmortem
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Yes, I am as happy as anyone when my candidate is shown leading in the polls and concerned when not. But many other posters and I have also noted that all polls should be taken with a grain of salt. Surprising things happen on the ground. Two states which have notoriously given different outcomes from polling predictions are the very first two where actual decisions will be made, i.e., Iowa and New Hampshire.
As a devoted supporter of Howard Dean in 2004, I was astonished at how different the actual outcome in Iowa was from the polling predictions. The outrageous media treatment of Dean's post-result speech - enhancing his voice volume and subduing his cheering supporters to make him sound like a maniac - to hearten his disappointed supporters still rankles sorely with me. But Iowa literally proved the end of the Dean Dream then. On the R side, candidates who have won literally disappeared afterwards.
My late father gave me many sound words of advice. Among them was the phrase "Don't gloat."
What looks so good for one's preferred candidate one day can turn to ashes the next. That is pre-election political reality. That can be the case for ANY ONE of our candidates. It is less the internet and our occasionally strident voices here that are important but more our contributions in cash, in kind, and in volunteerism to our candidate of choice.
I still believe that most on DU are Dems, whichever candidates we now prefer, and that all of us who are Dems WILL come together for the GE. Any R alternative is unthinkable.
Here is a good NYT article from a couple weeks back to remind us ALL that polls are not the be-all-end-all: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/29/upshot/are-primary-polls-finally-predictive-no-but-this-is-when-the-fun-starts.html?_r=0
It's a fun article to read (or reread), especially for those of us who are long-time bystanders of/participants in US politics. But all of us, even when we are passionately excited about our preferred candidate and believe that there is reason to gloat should try very hard to resist.
Sorry to post and run, but it's after 1:00 am here and I'm tired.
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,674 posts)These things are pretty unpredictable, so while you can be optimistic (or pessimistic, as the case may be), the fat lady hasn't sung yet, to throw in another metaphor. I am optimistic but premature gloating is never a good idea (right, Karl Rove? lol).
BlueMTexpat
(15,366 posts)kind - premature or not - ugly. But I admit that it's sometimes very hard to hold to the ideal.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)But seeing as how some around here have been browbeating, harassing, threatening, and demanding blood-oaths of loyalty on the basis of polls, it's fun to rub it in their faces when the same polls switch the other way
BlueMTexpat
(15,366 posts)If you really thank that asking people to vote for the Dem candidate in a Presidential election on a website that was created specifically to elect Dems is akin to a "blood oath" of loyalty then you really have no idea what a blood oath is. And you have a pretty cavalier idea of what is at stake.
If you are just stating such to be facetious and push buttons, that's one thing, although it is not commendable - for any supporter of any Dem candidate to do. But if you actually mean it, then you are in the wrong place.
There is a real Enemy and that Enemy is none of the 2016 Dem candidates for President. Period.
As you can see, I'm conscious again and fiesty as well, LOL.
I also continue to believe that my preferred candidate's chances of winning are excellent to outstanding whatever the polls might say whenever. But I don't need to demonize the other Dem candidates in the meantime - just in case. Hedging one's bets is never a bad idea.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)And it's been going on for two years ever since people started discussing Warren as a possible candidate. Because any opposition to "the presumptive nominee" is taken as a sign of (gasp) disloyalty! It's been a constant method of harassment of progressives on this site for two years. And it's repeated endlessly. Day after day, after day. As if we owe anything to you. As if Clinton supporters, of all people, have any space to chide others about "party loyalty"!
You signed up post-nomination 2008, I'm sure you are intimately aware of what I'm talking about.
Spare me your "real enemy" finger-wagging. You aren't anyone with any right to talk down to me, any more than you are anyone with a right to demand I answer to you.
BlueMTexpat
(15,366 posts)condescending!
I have been involved in US Democratic elections since 1964 (the first year that I was eligible to vote). Lurked on DU from 2004 on and wish that I had discovered DU earlier, but I didn't sign up until 2008.
But as for you and all others who are holier than thou, off to my Ignore list. Life is too short for such nastiness.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)Interesting that you take deep offense to being told not to talk down to me. Massive entitlement.