Today's 538 2016 Primary Forecasts: Iowa-Hillary-82%, Bernie-18% / NH-Hillary-57%, Bernie-43%

[Alfresco]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-democratic/

[dsc]

1. I am not in Silver's league

but I have to say those are more pro Hillary than I think is warranted. I still think Sanders is a favorite to win New Hampshire even if Hillary wins Iowa in anything short of a blow out which I think is rather unlikely. I do think she is a favorite to win Iowa but I don't think the odds are 82/18 more like 60/40.

[Alfresco]

2. I leave the analysis to them. I just post the numbers.

[reformist2]

14. It's a pathetic attempt to stop the momentum for Bernie. Looks to me like 538's in the tank for Hill

[Godhumor]

3. They're basing their predictions on their findings, including that NH voters are influenced by IA

As their model sees Iowa as a Clinton won, that influence spreads to NH. If Clinton loses Iowa, the model will not be nearly as bullish on her in NH.

As someone who makes models, I can say with confidence that they will be tinkering with the model levers as information comes in that shows what was predictive and what wasn't. Best thing to do is consider their new primary prediction model as being in beta but visible to the public.

[Number23]

4. It was 73% just YESTERDAY

[sonofspy777]

5. 538: just another even number

2016 the year Nate Silver no longer had relevance.

[wilsonbooks]

8. The year he became the laughing stock of the polling community.

[Fearless]

6. Bwahahaha! Best joke I've heard all day!

[DFW]

7. Doesn't that come across as the slightest bit optimistic?

I mean, even the most ardent Hillary supporter should view those numbers with suspicion. Any Sanders supporter in his or her right mind would certainly do so if the forecasts instead had those numbers in Bernie's favor..

[Recursion]

10. That's not support percentages but likelihood of winning

A race polling at 52/48 is about 80% likely to be won by the candidate polling at 52.

[HereSince1628]

9. Plainly a test of power...based on whether opinion at 538 creates reality

I suspect Nate is killing his reputation for relying on 'just the facts'.

[John Poet]

11. Nate pulls his predictions

out of his ass.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

12. Omit Gravis because they are way off

[Rosa Luxemburg]

13. or does Nate think this is the Powerball?

[jfern]

15. How's the anti Hillary, Jim Webb doing?

Also, how are Jindal's odds at winning Iowa? And obvious Trump crash and burned 4 months ago.