Interesting crosstab on DM Reg Iowa poll: Definitely caucusing Clinton +9

[book_worm]

https://politicalwire.com/2016/01/14/the-key-to-victory-in-iowa/

Josh Green points to the crosstabs from the new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll in Iowa:
•Definitely caucusing: Clinton 45%, Sanders 36%
•Probably caucusing: Sanders 47%, Clinton 37%.

[thereismore]

1. I can't wrap my head around it. It's a wash. nt

[karynnj]

8. what it means is that whatever metric is used to

Measure how likely someone is to caucus. This poll has done very well in past years. However if the excitement for Bernie increases he will immediately shift more to likely caucus. Ie he has more upside he can get from working to get out the people he already has.

[Dawson Leery]

2. Those college

kids should do us a favor and go to a keger on that night.

They will disappear after the 2016 election and we will be on our own.

[jfern]

4. You just want to lose in November, huh?

[reformist2]

6. So you want a low turnout. Isn't that what Republicans usually want?

[CommonSenseDemocrat]

3. The poll is underweighted severely against Hillary supporters

2016 Dem CGs who
have attended a Dem
caucus in the past
n=365
±5.1% pts
13 No, did not attend 2008 Democratic caucus
49 Yes, supported Barack Obama
9 Yes, supported John Edwards
17 Yes, supported Hillary Clinton
3 Yes, supported Joe Biden
1 Yes, supported Christopher Dodd
1 Yes, supported Dennis Kucinich (pron: koo SIN itch)
2 Yes, supported Bill Richardson
1 Yes, supported someone else
2 Yes, not sure of support
3 Not sure whether attended

[jfern]

5. Everyone wants to say they picked the winner. Romney had way too high on the Republican side

[CommonSenseDemocrat]

7. So at least 30% of poll subjects are liars?

I believe this explanation, but then it throws the entire poll as being invalid IMO.

[dsc]

9. could be

It has been a historical thing that polls after the fact don't agree with election results. Way more people claimed to have voted for Kennedy in polls in 61 then actually did in 60, far fewer said they voted for Nixon after he was impeached than actually did in 72 to name two pretty famous examples. That doesn't necessarily invalidate the poll.