Will O’Malley Backers Deliver Iowa to Bernie Sanders?

[Jefferson23]

The former Maryland governor just qualified for the next debate, but that’s not why he’s suddenly relevant.


The race in Iowa is an effective tie between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders—putting Martin O’Malley in a position to determine its outcome.

The former Maryland governor’s support in Iowa is the only reason he’s appearing in Sunday’s Democratic debate. After days of uncertainty as to whether or not he’d qualify, NBC News announced Thursday that he’d make the stage. But while that’s good for O’Malley, who’s struggled to gain the public’s attention since his campaign launched in late May, it doesn’t mean he’s a competitive candidate. What he could be, though, is influential. When O’Malley’s backers show up to caucus on February 1, they could tip the race: not to O’Malley, but to their second choice.

It all comes down to the math. When voters arrive at each of the roughly 1,700 caucus meetings, they sort themselves into groups backing different candidates. Candidates need the support of 15 percent of those assembled. At any precinct where they fail to clear that hurdle, they’ll be given the option to back one of O’Malley’s rivals. (They can also simply go home, or try to convince Clinton and Sanders supporters to join their camp, instead.)

As it stands, O’Malley seems unlikely to find enough support in very many precincts. Though he qualified for the debate stage by NBC News’s standards, in two more recent polls O’Malley only received 4 percent support from likely Democratic caucus-goers. His rivals, meanwhile, are neck-and-neck: A Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday shows Sanders with 49 percent and Clinton at 44, a turnaround from a December poll that showed Clinton at 51 percent and Sanders at 40. And one from Bloomberg Politics and The Des Moines Register released Thursday shows Clinton as the first-choice candidate for 42 percent, with Sanders at 40.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/01/omalley-iowa-caucus-sanders/424224/

[bigtree]

1. 14% undecided in a recent Iowa poll

carolhunter ?@carolhunter 1h1 hour ago
Where does @MartinOMalley see an opening? He cites new poll's 14% undecided and what he calls "terrific organization" on ground. #iacaucus

[Jefferson23]

2. Good for him, sincerely. n/t

[djean111]

3. He may already have a deal with Hillary. Who knows?

[Jefferson23]

5. Hmm. I suppose anything is possible but that would put a big dent in his

credibility, at least for me.

[djean111]

8. Well, at this point, I think VP is the best he can do, or a guaranteed spot in the administration,

to use as a springboard. Where have I heard that before? Plus, Third-Wayers (or ex-Third-Wayers) may tend to stick together for the common goal of continuing Third Way policies once in office.

[aikoaiko]

4. I have it on good authority O'Mallery will beat Peter Florrick

I had a vision.

[cascadiance]

6. I've also been saying in previous posts that O'Malley supporters could be a key variable in Iowa...

... since in many cases they won't have enough supporters at a caucus meeting to get their own delegate. Depending on the numbers on whether they'd have enough for a majority of a delegation that they don't have the raw numbers for to have their own delegate with just their supporters, or if they have small enough numbers that they can't even get enough for a majority of voters in a delegation for a delegate, that will produce different scenarios.

With the former, they can either push for other voters that are left over from the delegations for one of the two major candidacies to join them to either have an O'Malley delegation or an undecided delegation, or if the latter, they can join a delegation of either Bernie's or Hillary's depending on who they favor most. How those voters of those mixed delegations would want to vote in their support for a delegate leaning towards either Bernie or towards Hillary is critical to growing support at the state level outside of their official caucus delegation.

I'm of the belief that most of the O'Malley supporters would lean towards Bernie if he won or had a good shot at winning the state caucuses with that delegation's vote. So I do think that O'Malley supporters will help Bernie in the long run in Iowa.

In the Republican caucus back in 2008, it was Ron Paul that was a strategic candidate for trying to negotiate support for in the Republican Party that year at the state level the way the allegiances, etc. went. And basically he grabbed all of Santorum's candidates even though Santorum actually beat Romney in a subsequent vote count after Romney was declared the initial winner. So, the caucuses can be a very strategic mess. So that Libertarian gained strength within Republican circles then, and the press would probably want you to believe that Joanie Ernst didn't profit at all from the Libertarian candidate just dying a short time in a small plane crash before she won her senate seat in last election too.

[Jefferson23]

7. Interesting points, thanks. I would think his supporters would lean to Sanders too. n/t