Nate Silver perfectly summarizes the current media narrative for Hillary

[Godhumor]

From his Twitter:

*Clinton does something, anything, vaguely resembling the usual strategy of a candidate in a competitive campaign*

MEDIA: SHE'S PANICKING!!!

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/688736262203686912

On the plus side, the media now have the groundwork for a resiliency story when they get bored of this narrative.

[sufrommich]

1. He's obviously sold out to the Clinton campaign

and or fears for his safety.

[DURHAM D]

3. Did you forget

corporatist, hawk, DLCer, 3rd way, and my favorite "Low Information" pollster?

[sufrommich]

4. "low information pollster"

That's a new one to me.

[Bleacher Creature]

27. Plus "oligarch" and "warmonger"

That's basically Nate Silver in a nutshell.

[floriduck]

53. Nate Silver can work his magic when

all the traditional people and events are in place. But this year is a very unusual situation in both parties. So, instead of magic, Nate actually pulls a turd out of his top hat. Not his fault though since he's never had this situation to deal with.

[Green Forest]

2. So being a hypocritical liar is "the usual strategy"? Good to know what a cynical asshole Nate is.

Sounds like the Clintons buttered his toast well.

[MuseRider]

5. "vaguely resembling the usual strategy of a candidate in a competitive campaign"

therein lies the problem.

We are sick and tired of the usual. In our every day lives we don't act like this why would we want to be governed by people who consider this OK?

[99th_Monkey]

6. Thanks Nate for tipping your hand. That explains a lot, about your "analysis"

and how 'objective' it isn't.

[lunamagica]

8. He will be proven right -again- just wait and see

[99th_Monkey]

20. Nate is having a late-nite snack delivered to Mr. Silver on Feb. 1

[lunamagica]

26. That is just nasty. Nate will be proven right on Feb 1. eom

[Chakab]

46. Just like he was proven right about Trump not having an real support, and

falling out the primary by the fall?

[Jarqui]

7. Any campaign would react to a significant drop in the polls.

It's how they react that distinguishes them.

Sending their daughter out to spew lame, obviously dishonest attacks on healthcare against a guy promoting single payer looks very desperate. A number of the Clinton campaign's recent actions look similarly. Thus, we get beyond the mere appearance of panic. The only question that remains is how much panic is going on with her and her campaign.

[enid602]

28. Was it really a lie. . .

"If courts invalidate just that part of the hypothetical Sanders law, remember that the remainder of the bill would remain in effect. In other words, if the courts block a federal authority to set up a health insurance body in a state in which it is unwelcome, the defunding of Medicaid, Medicare, CHIP, and ACA exchanges remain in full effect, leaving the residents of those states - including their elderly citizens - with only private insurance as an option for health coverage."

http://www.thepeoplesview.net/main/2016/1/15/chelsea-clinton-was-right-everyones-health-care-is-threatened-under-bernies-plan

[lunamagica]

9. That is so true! But then again, the media has to pretend there is a horse race

It's how the game is played.

[Motown_Johnny]

10. "competitive campaign" is the key here. They thought this was going to be a coronation.

It is starting to sound like Nate has a crush on Hillary.

[dsc]

12. he's gay

[Motown_Johnny]

14. Whats your point?

A crush does not need to mean he wants physical relations.


Ever heard of a "Man Crush"? This looks like something similar to me. I honestly care nothing about his sexual preference and am a little disappointed that you brought it up.

[dsc]

15. me and my gay friends don't tend to crush on women

that isn't how it works.

[Motown_Johnny]

23. That word, you keep using it......

https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&rlz=1C1CHWA_enUS617US617&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=crush%20meaning


a brief but intense infatuation for someone, especially someone unattainable or inappropriate.
"she did have a crush on Dr. Russell"
synonyms: infatuation, obsession, love, passion; informalpuppy love
"a teenage crush"

[JI7]

38. not in that way but she is very popular among gay men

[Bohunk68]

48. Some gay men, certainly not all of us.

A Crush is not necessarily sexual in meaning. geez, any gay guy knows that.

[Ed Suspicious]

32. I'm straight as an arrow, but I crush hard on Patrick Stewart.

[dorkzilla]

49. I am likewise straight but I’ve got a girl crush on Merrily :)

[Ed Suspicious]

50. Who doesn't?

[KittyWampus]

18. What's hilarious is now Sanders supporters want HIM to be handed to nomination

[Motown_Johnny]

19. Oh no, we know he has to win the first 2 contests to have a real shot.

We just think that his positions are so far superior to Hillary's that he deserves to win.

[KittyWampus]

21. Then why all the whinging about Hillary & her 'attacking' poor Sanders

[Motown_Johnny]

24. Because he needs to win the first two contests to have a real shot.

Did you not read the post you are responding to?

[LondonReign2]

31. Because Democrats usually don't look favorability on outright lies and slimy tactics

The Clinton campaign and large swaths of her supporters seem to have no problem with them though.

[Armstead]

36. Don't care about ":attacking"....Do care about lying

[99th_Monkey]

22. +100 nt

[SoapBox]

43. Please provide a link with qualified proof of that.

...it's baloney.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. I will not hesitate to enunciate that I think Nate is great.

A most perspicacious young man.

[Ed Suspicious]

33. You talk on stilts.

[Punkingal]

13. heck, I'm disappointed. i thought it was going to be that she was the front-runner.

[BlueMTexpat]

16. The media love nothing better than a horse race.

When one doesn't really exist, they will create it. Nate is spot on.

We have always known that IA and NH would be close. There might even be a couple other states that will go for Bernie if he wins BIG in IA and NH. If he doesn't win or doesn't win BIG in these two, possibly none. But in the majority of states remaining, even if he wins IA and NH, the task ahead of him is daunting - to say the least.

When one has not been a member of a mainstream party for the whole of one's political life, but then throws one's hat in the ring for a Presidential election as a member of that party and uses the party's resources, all the while bashing the party establishment/leaders and not contributing to down-ticket races, one should not be surprised when the party does not wholeheartedly rush to support that candidate.

Just sayin' ...

[Kentonio]

47. Who is this we?

Because I seem to recall months of being told that Bernie wasn't going to come close in any state. His ceiling seems to move more often than Hillary's policy positions.

[BlueMTexpat]

60. I notice that you have fairly recently joined the site.

Even counting for lots of years of lurking before joining, either you have been reading selectively or you have not noticed that the majority of HRC supporters have always characterized the states of IA and NH as anomalous in many ways from the 48 others, and thus more likely to provide a close race for any serious challenger.

These two states are first and thus given disproportionate attention by the media, despite their anomalies. Clinton could still win these, especially in IA. With NH's Independents as likely to vote in the GOP primary as in the Democratic, the polls might be overstating Bernie's lead over Hillary there.

The thing is that, considering the anomalies in these two states, Clinton can afford to lose either or both and still have a much greater chance (much more than 50% - Nate predicts 66% based on polls-only) of securing the Dem nomination than Bernie. Bernie MUST win or he will have very little momentum to carry over into a battle that will become very lopsided.

I am not sure why you want to be a bit snarky about this. It is nothing but the truth. You can likely find at least one person who was telling you different things if that's what you're bent on doing, but I was not one of them, nor were the majority of HRC supporters.

[Kentonio]

61. The majority of Hillary supporters were writing off Sanders as not have a chance in any state

As recently as Aug/Sept.

As for the effect of Iowa and NH, it has always been the case that Bernie has to win them. The thing is though that will his existing surge of momentum, the additional media momentum of wins in those states, could very easy change the entire complexion of the race, which is what has Hillary so worried at present. It could be enough to flip Nevada, and then its anybodies race. Hillary desperately needs some momentum, and the only way she gets that is either holding Iowa which looks increasingly likely or scoring a big win in either Nevada or SC. If they are even close wins for Hillary, the race doesn't look good for her.

[BlueMTexpat]

62. Well, you can always hope.

And it is definitely true that until actual votes are cast, it's looking like a very close race in both. It likely will still be even then.

You are perhaps overstating "the majority of Hillary supporters" as "writing off" Sanders. I very much doubt that you saw my name among them and I doubt that the supporters you saw represented the majority. But political hyperbole is often an outcome of passion for one's candidate and it's good that you are passionate about yours.

Actually, in Aug/Sept, I liked Bernie a lot better than I do right now. I still believe that he is an excellent candidate, but his supporters' constant trashing of my candidate has colored my POV. It's been a real turn-off.

I also don't believe that Hillary is "worried," as the media would like to make you think. And she won't be going away at all. As for Bernie's winning NV, meh - we'll see, but it's possible that he could have a strong showing there. I'm a Westerner by birth and my granddaughter currently lives in Las Vegas. The Dem women I know there are firmly in Hillary's court. However, for SC to go BIG for Bernie would take a miracle, IMO. So in SC, yes, you see me as much more confident about Hillary.

[Kentonio]

63. I completely agree about SC, and I've never wavered on that.

If he wins SC then Hillary may as well just pack up and go home. The very best I hope for there is a close defeat, say within 10.

[KittyWampus]

17. So true, so true. Had to laugh, it's so true.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

25. Is this another "poor Hillary" OP?

[Godhumor]

30. More a "rolling the eyes at the coverage" post n/t

[Squinch]

29. Nate is obviously an oligarch in the bag for Hillary. I have known this since I realized that he

doesn't use internet polls in his analysis.

[SoapBox]

40. Yes...more Entrenched Establishment.

I lost respect for him years ago.

[Squinch]

42. My post was a joke, son.

[Lordquinton]

54. Remember when Nate was a Libertarian?

Funny how that's disappeared.

[Squinch]

57. Remember how accurately Nate predicted the last presidential election? That HASN'T disappeared.

And anything else is beside the point.

[Lordquinton]

59. Just like David Brock?

Apparently if they're helping Hillary, anything else doesn't matter.

[Lil Missy]

34. There is obviously a conspiray behind this.

[Z_California]

35. She's not panicking?

I've never seen a Democratic candidate use right wing attacks prior to the first primary. What should it be called when a candidate does that?

[Armstead]

37. I will agree with half of that.....

Lying should not be standard operating procedure for a campaign and candidate. Nor shold it be condoned or excused.

BUT

Yes the medias loves a contest. I'm sure they're preparing the "comeback" stories, regardless of what happens.

[SoapBox]

39. "...the usual strategy of a candidate..."

You mean like...

Flip Flopping and/or copying the stances of your competition?

Sending your daughter out to attack your competition with lies?

...shit like that?

Uh huh.

[Kall]

41. Interesting

What does making dishonest attacks about universal health care that one would expect from Ted Cruz, saying Bernie Sanders would take peoples' health care away, and sending her child out to do the same qualify as? Even-tempered, rational, calculated, clear-headed strategy?

If it actually is even-tempered, rational, calculated, and clear-headed strategy, then that's evidence of an even bigger and more disturbing problem.

[firebrand80]

44. And if she acts as if the race is not competitive

She's just pretending that she's not panicking

[still_one]

45. He is giving you his impression. Agree or disagree, but his analysis has been

pretty accurate in the past

[Quixote1818]

51. Nate is good at reading polls close to election day but he sucks at reading trends

He completely blew it on Trump's resilience and he very well could be under estimating Sanders. Lets be real, Clinton would NOT have gone negative if the polls were not tightening up.

[joeybee12]

52. he's right and he's slamming the herd mentality of the

Media. But look at Bernie supporters taking offense. .they're getting ridiculous

[Vinca]

55. There has been a distinct change in her demeanor.

If Nate hasn't observed that, we can guess who he's voting for.

[Gothmog]

56. The Clinton campaign is not panicking and is not that concerned

I am also amused by Nate's comments

[pansypoo53219]

58. please, in shorter words. she is being GOREd.