CNN poll: NEVADA (Obama +3)

[TroyD]

Obama - 49

Romney - 46

Just reported on CNN's Situation Room.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/20/cnn-poll-even-odds-in-nevada/

(CNN) – One day before Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney campaigns in Nevada, a new poll indicates the state remains very much a battleground in the race for the White House.

According to CNN/ORC International survey (PDF) released Thursday, 49% of likely voters in Nevada say if the election were held today, they'd vote for President Barack Obama, with 46% supporting Romney. The president's three point margin is within the poll's sampling error, suggesting the two candidates are effectively tied in the fight for the Silver State's six electoral votes.

[TroyD]

1. Full results

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/09/20/topgenstate3nv.pdf

[WI_DEM]

3. I see in the broader 'reg voters' Obama is up by 6

Basically the better the turnout the better Obama will do. GOTV.

[TroyD]

7. Yes, Obama has a wider lead in Clark County (Las Vegas)

That's usually where Democrats win in Nevada, and that's where Harry Reid was able to get the votes he need to beat Sharron Angle 2 years ago.

[WI_DEM]

2. Nevada, Colorado, North Carolina and Iowa are the states I think

Romney has a shot at picking up--perhaps Florida, too. Of these five I think Obama will, in the end, carry Nevada, Colorado and Florida. I think that NC & Iowa are very much toss-ups. I will be interested in seeing what PPP's Iowa poll shows next week.

[TroyD]

4. Perhaps the Rasmussen poll showing Obama +2 in Nevada was close afterall

Rasmussen may have been right for a change.

Wonder why Nevada is narrowing when Obama seems to be widening his lead in other regions?

[Jennicut]

8. NBC/WSJ/Marist had a poll on Iowa today with Obam +8.

I don't think he is ahead by that much but he seems to have built some kind of lead there.

Florida has not polled well for Romney at all unless we count Gravis Marketing, a nutty Repub pollster.

A CO poll was +5 in the NBC/WSJ/Marist today as well.

Nevada is polling at about 2 to 3 points for Obama in the last 4 polls. Close, but he seems to have the advantage. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nv/nevada_romney_vs_obama-1908.html

The two states Romney will have a good shot at are Indiana and North Carolina. Those are the only ones he leads in when adding all the swing state polling together.

[Blue Yorker]

5. More "effectively tied" bullshit

The probability of a candidate leading by 3% to win the elections is higher than the probability of them being tied.
But media outlets continue to call these a tie. Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal once said,

Some non-expert DU'ers will pretend a 3% lead is a tie, too, but expert Mark Blumenthal contradicts them when he says, " ‘Statistical tie’ is one of those expressions I wish we could do away with.” There's my pre-emptive strike for you.

http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/whats-a-statistical-tie-anyway-234/

[TroyD]

6. Visual Chart