2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumRe: Romney campaign facing cash flow problem,NYT confirms grantcart prediction
Last I week I predicted that the Romney campaign would soon be facing a cash flow problem. There were a few who saw the narrowly defined point I was trying to make that the campaign which has to carry the infrastructure of the campaign would soon be faced with cash flow problems while the Superpacs would have unlimited money for ads:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/125194716 Sept 12
Prediction: Romney campaign will face cash flow problems
Not the Super Pacs (although they may not be getting any more either) but the official Romney campaign.
First thing is Romney has a very small base of contributors and the highest percentage of maxed out contributors.
Second thing is that with debacle after debacle event only the most diehard contributors will stay, most will go to Senate campaigns.
Third Romney never really engendered diehard contributors but more fair weather friends, and the sky is very cloudy.
The NYT is now reporting
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/20/us/politics/romney-campaign-cautious-with-ad-budget-even-in-key-states.html?_r=1
One major reason appears to be that Mr. Romneys campaign finances have been significantly less robust than recent headlines would suggest. Much of the more than $300 million the campaign reported raising this summer is earmarked for the Republican National Committee, state Republican organizations and Congressional races, limiting the money Mr. Romneys own campaign has to spend.
. . .
Mr. Romneys absence from the air made sense before the partys convention in late August, since the campaigns cash flow became so slow over the summer that it was forced to borrow $20 million to carry it through the event, when his formal nomination freed up tens of millions of dollars for the general election.
. . .
So far it is only buying several days or a week of advertising at a time, a sign that it is being extremely frugal. According to a review of spending figures provided by a group that tracks political advertising, from Sept. 10 through Sept. 24, Mr. Romney and his allies reserved $3.7 million in advertising time in Ohio. That compared with $5.2 million for Mr. Obama and his allies.
In Colorado, Mr. Romney is being outspent $2.2 million to $1.5 million during that same period. In New Hampshire, Mr. Obama is spending $1.2 million, compared with $380,000 to benefit Mr. Romney. The vast majority of that is coming not from the Romney campaign but from American Crossroads, the conservative super PAC.
Several people missed the point that while Superpacs can have a lot of money, campaigns are governed by very strict rules that professional campaign staff are not going willingly cross as they involve real criminal prosecution. Coordination in ad buys, sure but they are not going to pay campaign salaries or chartered jet bills.
With Mitts continuing disaster of a campaign you should expect that donations are harder and harder to get, and that is why Romney still is spending a significant portion of every day at fund raisers, something that no other candidate has been faced with this late in the general election campaign.
All of which points to the fact that Romney isn't a particularly good CEO after all.
Old and In the Way
(37,540 posts)Great insight.
central scrutinizer
(11,646 posts)put YOUR money on the line.
DLnyc
(2,479 posts)Stuff like states, conventions, campaigns, his own mouth, stuff like that.
I'm sure he could do a real number on a country, if by some horrible cosmic fuckup he managed to get ahold of one!
Maybe we should work really hard to see that that doesn't happen!
aletier_v
(1,773 posts)workers
leveraged companies
and possibly the republican party this year
Whisp
(24,096 posts)The President's donors are in it for real. For an idea not a consumer product.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)patrice
(47,992 posts)tarheelsunc
(2,117 posts)He's getting his big PAC money, even if it doesn't go directly to him, it will go to some groups that attack President Obama. Mitt's problem is that he's done a poor job of managing the money that he has and spending it in the wrong places, which is freaking hilarious considering his background with Bain Capital was the only real "advantage" he ever had.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)PAC money buys ad time. The campaign has expenses that only the campaign can spend. Usually it is not an issue but we could be seeing the first time that a campaign runs out of money for its normal infrastructure expenditures while the PACs are swimming in money.
Carla in Sequim
(228 posts)Also please read this great diary from Dailykos
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/20/1134247/-Hoodwinked-Romney-Campaign-Does-NOT-have-the-Money-they-trumpeted
A little snip.....
Now we know what you too may have suspected: that Romney pulled the equivalent of a combined "Enron" & "Wall Street credit default swap" shell game on the public about his campaign's money haul.
He's been raising money alright, but it's coming from few donors who are maxing out to his campaign, the RNC, and the Republican Governors Association. This bundling of different kinds of monies into headline-grabbing newsbuzz intended to capture the news cycle, impress corporate journos, and intimidate Democrats, but the campaign itself can use only so little of this money.
And the party committee, which Mr. Romney helped propel to record-breaking receipts in July, is allowed to spend only about $22 million on advertising that is coordinated with Mr. Romney.
Nice job, grantcart!
Tx4obama
(36,974 posts)I can't remember where the article is though.
And as far as Romney goes his Super PACs have more money than Obama's do.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)PAC gots lots of money and can buy ads
RNC has lots of money and has to pay for campaigns in 50 states.
Romney campaign funds which are the ONLY source for its infrastructure expenditrues, like staff, chartered jets, etc.
Romney's campaign is an expensive one with a big headquarters and we could be seeing a campaign run out of money while its PACs and national party has plenty.
pnwmom
(108,973 posts)get to pay reduced rates for their political ads. In other words, the same ad would cost significantly more to the super Pac.
But they're not allowed to coordinate, so they won't be the same ads.
OmahaBlueDog
(10,000 posts)If (especially after the first debate) things still aren't looking good for Rmoney, might the superpacs not shift their resources toward Senate races? Especially Missouri (where the establishment GOP has cut Akin off), but also looking at the races in Wisconsin, Mass, and Virginia. They may see this as a better investment of resources.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)Or along similar lines they might end up spending money on Romney ads in states where it might help a Senate candidate.
For example if MA is still close they might buy Romney support ads there knowing that Romney is going to lose but hoping that it would bring Brown a couple of points. As Brown/Warren have pledged no outside ads from PACS it would be the only way for them to indirectly help Brown and not break the pledge.
Another example would be Indiana. Not a swing state but if they need to help their Teaparty candidate then they may buy ads there as well.
quaker bill
(8,224 posts)But what I did not know then is that he had been fluffing the figures with money he does not get and cannot be spent on his behalf.
He has the smell of loser all over him at this point. What he would need to get to the election in a condition to potentially win, is alot of luck, and a surge of cash. He is not going to get lucky because if you read the Vanity Fair piece on BHO, he does not take "stupid shots", and gets very angry when those around him do (even in basketball). He is not going to get a cash surge because his best donors are maxed out, and many more aren't going to be tempted to throw more money at a losing proposition.
The super pacs do have money, but they also have options. There is absolutely no reason in law that they have to spend it now in this cycle on this race. They could just sit on it until 2016. They could spend a bit on some now curiously tight Senate races in red states and reserve the rest. They could pitch some of it at House seats. They could reserve enough to make sure that the organizers of the pacs have very nice salaries between now and 2016 and fund "think tanks" to produce white papers and conferences to discuss them at fancy resorts with nice golf courses, pretty beaches, and fine cuisine... I would bet on the latter.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)to flood the airways in the final weeks will backfire. Only a few people haven't already made up their minds. Unless something catastrophic happens, people have already settled on their choice. It's now all about GOTV!!!
mojo2012
(290 posts)So did the bonuses Romney gave to 4 staffers (total of $112,500) at the end of August come out of the campaign budget? Then he borrows money? Doesn't seem very smart unless it was the only way to keep them from jumping ship
grantcart
(53,061 posts)MORE BONUSES PLEASE!!!!!!!
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)grantcart
(53,061 posts)they may start buying ads in places like MA where they could help their Senate candidate.
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)Good lord. Is there anything about this man that isn't completely fake? Tell me one thing.
Desperado_6569
(14 posts)I heard he had canceled some events over the weekend so he could attend only fundraisers. I imagine his comments from the hidden video probably has a lot of donors jumping ship as well.