Heartland/Monitor National Poll give Obama a seven-point lead

[WI_DEM]

President Obama has opened a solid lead over Mitt Romney by largely reassembling the “coalition of the ascendant” that powered the Democrat to his landmark 2008 victory, the latest Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor Poll has found.

The survey found Obama leading Romney by 50 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, with key groups in the president’s coalition such as minorities, young people, and upscale white women providing him support comparable to their levels in 2008.

The survey, conducted by Ed Reilly and Jeremy Ruch of FTI Communications, a communications and strategic consulting firm, surveyed 1,055 likely voters by landline and cell phone from Sept. 15-19. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Full results from the survey, including a detailed look at Americans’ attitudes about opportunity and upward mobility, will be released in the Sept. 22 National Journal.

The same stark racial divide runs through preferences in the November election. For Obama, the formula for success in 2012 can be reduced to a single equation: 80-40. If he can hold the combined 80 percent he won among all minorities in 2008, and they represent at least the 26 percent of ballots they cast last time, then he can assemble a national majority with support from merely about 40 percent of whites.

On both fronts, the survey shows the president almost exactly hitting that mark. He leads Romney among all nonwhite voters by 78 percent to 18 percent, drawing over nine in 10 African-Americans and slightly more than the two-thirds of Hispanics he carried last time.

Among whites, Obama wins 41 percent compared to Romney’s 51 percent. Obama’s showing is down slightly from the 43 percent among whites he attracted in 2008 but still enough for the president to prevail in both sides’ calculations. With more whites than non-whites either undecided or saying they intend to support another candidate, Romney is not nearly approaching the roughly three-in-five support among them he’ll likely need to win.

http://nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/heartland-monitor-poll-obama-leads-50-percent-to-43-percent-20120921

[TroyD]

1. 'Heartland/Monitor National Poll'

Who are they? I don't think I've ever heard of them before.

Are they Independent, or affiliated with one party or another?

[WI_DEM]

2. supposed to be independents, I think, they are sponsored by All State Insurance and National Journal

Their article has a pretty good analysis of their numbers which many pollsters don't provide. It's an interesting read.

Here is their web page. It doesn't look like they specialize in political polls, but their numbers are consistent with other recent polls so I don't disregard it:

http://www.allstate.com/heartland-monitor.aspx

[TroyD]

3. I'll be interested to see what Nate Silver says later today

Will this poll get entered into the polling average by Nate, or by RCP?

[WI_DEM]

4. Who knows? National Journal is a well known Washington news magazine, so maybe.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/