Democratic Strategist: Demographics Work Against Romney in Some Battlegrounds
NJ In what states are demographics playing a role?
Mellman You have states like North Carolina that have a large number of African-Americans, an increasingly large group of college-educated whites -- a group that tends to be more supportive of Democrats -- and obviously a growing Latino population as well. And you have a state like Nevada that also has a fast-growing and important Latino population. Colorado has, again, a combination of college-educated whites and Latinos.
NJ In 2008, how much of President Obama’s victory was a product of disgruntlement with the party in power and the economic situation?
Mellman That was clearly important in some places. I don’t think anybody thinks that Indiana is going to Obama this time. The Obama campaign worked Indiana very hard and very effectively, but they were close enough for that to make a difference because of the economic situation. And this time, being the incumbent, with an economic situation that is beginning to improve but not fully improved, makes Indiana that much harder. It’s safe to say that President Obama is going to win, but with fewer electoral votes in 2012 than he did in 2008. And an important part of that reduction in the number of electoral votes is going to be a function of the economic situation.
NJ How concerned should Mitt Romney be about the Latino vote in swing states? And how concerned should President Obama be about the working-class white voters?
Mellman In a close election, everybody should worry about everybody, and if you don’t, you’re foolish.
Romney has more to worry about than Obama does. If you look at white voters overall, if Obama is able to hold on to the minority votes he got last time, he can win with less than 40 percent of the white vote. The truth is, in 2010, when Democrats were getting clobbered, they got 38 percent of the white vote, so getting 40 percent of the white vote is not that hard for the president.
On the other hand, Republicans really have to make some substantial inroads into the Latino community, and so far they’ve been much more focused on alienating the Latino community than bringing them into the Republican fold.
NJ Arizona has been on a lot of people’s radar this cycle. Is it a true toss-up?
Mellman It’s just a matter of time, again, because of the growing Latino population...
http://nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/democratic-strategist-demographics-work-against-romney-in-some-battlegrounds-20120529
