NEW CNN poll Clinton leads nationwide but in tied In Iowa

[Robbins]

http://www.dnaindia.com/world/report-clintontrump-lead-nationally-face-dead-heat-in-iowa-caucus-says-cnn-poll-2167498

Nationwide-Clinton 54%(-2) Bernie 36%(+5)

Iowa-CLinton and Bernie both at 45%

GOP Clown show

Nationwide-Trump 34% Cruz 20% Rubio-12% Carson-10%

Iowa-Cruz 27% Trump 25% Rubio-14% Carson-10%

[Live and Learn]

1. Feel the Bern!! nt

[Kalidurga]

2. Here is Hillary's Iowa problem

She is tied in polling. The problem with that isn't that landlines are polled. There is no evidence to show that people who use cell phones only are going to be more likely to vote for Bernie, I suspect it's the case, but whatever. The problem is the likely voter vs the registered voter model. They leave out the youngest voters. If Bernie has this group by an overwhelming margin and I believe he does since there is evidence for that then Hillary needs to be ahead in Iowa by at least 10% up to 40% if we are counting all millennials.

[JonLeibowitz]

5. Bernie also has an Iowa problem, unfortunately, and it isn't his fault.

All his young supporters are concentrated in college towns, and delegates are not awarded by the state popular vote but on a precinct level.

Will be interesting to see how this impacts things in the end.

[Kalidurga]

7. Well there are a lot of millennials that are between the ages of 22 and 35.

I don't know if they are concentrated anywhere, but it's not in the polls that exclude the ones under the age of 26.

[JonLeibowitz]

8. I have read that his college supporters are all concentrated in 3 counties.

You are of course correct about polls which ignore those under 26. We should look closely at those in the coming weeks.

[Kalidurga]

9. Well I agree that is a problem re college supporters

I just don't know how big that problem is. Like how many millennials are over the age of 22 and how many under. I guess we'll find out on Feb. 1st.

[marlakay]

15. Not all people are young supporters

I just spent weekend canvassing in Reno and Carson City, where I met voters from both Bernie and Hillary.

While there I roomed with a lady in her 60's whose sister is from Iowa and she went there in June and got first row to a Bernie rally and got to shake his hand.

She said many people are for him, many of her sisters friends, not just the young and will be caucusing for him.

[Robbins]

6. I agree

with only landlines being polled there is actully case to say some bernie supporters aren't being reached.

The trend In Iowa is with bernie not Clinton.being tied with bernie is bad news for her.

[cantbeserious]

3. Feelin The Bern

eom

[Motown_Johnny]

4. RCP average has Bernie with a 6.7% lead in New Hampshire.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html



Although, at this point in the cycle I start holding my breath and waiting for Iowa to caucus. Obsessing over polls now can drive you crazy.

[JonLeibowitz]

10. How legit is this? Should be CNN/ORC, not CNN/ORG, no?

Looks like, if accurate, they accidentally released the information before the release time.

[Robbins]

11. it says CNN/ORG poll

here is link http://www.dnaindia.com/world/report-clintontrump-lead-nationally-face-dead-heat-in-iowa-caucus-says-cnn-poll-2167498

[JonLeibowitz]

12. Yes but the proper research group is ORC International.

[jfern]

14. Yeah, something a little odd about this

[Godhumor]

18. See my post 16. The article in the OP is simply false n/t

[demwing]

13. Confirmation

best news of the day

[Godhumor]

16. Nope, nothing like this exists at all. The article in the OP is flat out wrong

54-36 is not a new CNN national poll, it is the the numbers from their last IOWA poll in late November/early December.
See here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html#polls

There is no 56-31 CNN National poll at any time.

There was however a 56-31 National FOX Poll...in November.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html

DNA India might not be there best source for breaking polls.

[Quixote1818]

17. She lead by that much Nationally 8 years ago too and it collapsed

as soon as people started paying attention and gearing up to vote. Her support has never been that strong, only name recognition.