Couldn't be newer Iowa Poll -HRC 48% SBS 39% MOM 7%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/IowaDemCaucusPollJan2016.pdf

[Dr Hobbitstein]

1. The usual suspects will be along soon enough to unskew it. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. As is their right.

I just want HRC to win IA.

[riversedge]

32. Bingo.

[Dawson Leery]

38. Same here.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. It's a random sample. The sample suggests what the electorate will look like.

It's not as if the pollster is guessing who is going to show up to vote.

[virtualobserver]

2. 57% in the poll are 55 and over

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. I agree... Nothing to see here, for some...

I would be remiss, though, if I didn't thank you for kicking my thread.



Respectfully,
DSB

[livetohike]

9. The age of reliable voters. n/t

[virtualobserver]

14. True.........so we shall see.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. The research suggests the older you are the more likely you are to vote.

[virtualobserver]

17. That is absolutely right

so we will see.

[workinclasszero]

25. Oh the age group that actually votes in primaries!

Looks good for Hillary then!

[virtualobserver]

31. except when a candidate inspires the young and has 90,000 volunteers on the ground....

so we will see.

[BeyondGeography]

5. O'Malley is getting shellacked in the hatchback station wagon segment

Overperforming with bikers tho.

[sufrommich]

7. Lol.nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. What do you think the purpose of those questions are?

Intuitively, the answers make sense.

I would have asked about are the respondents' favorite beverage, television show, and sport.

[BeyondGeography]

11. Not my line of work

But I can see how it would be fun.

[MineralMan]

6. So, what's the weather prediction in Iowa

for February 1? I'm watching that, and it will make a difference in turnout, I'm sure.

[virtualobserver]

18. the forecast is "Baby, its cold outside"

In Des Moines - high 37 low 23.......sleet and snow.....probably not too reliable this far out.

[MineralMan]

19. The temperature isn't bad, but if there's

much sleet and snow, transportation will be more difficult. The temps, though, are well within comfortable range for most Iowans.

Heck, it's only 23 degrees here in St. Paul, and nobody is staying home. We just got through 72 hours below zero. It feels like a heat wave out there. I had a doctor's appointment at 7 AM and didn't even zip my parka or put on a hat or gloves.

People in Iowa are used to the cold, but if there's sleet and snow, it does keep some indoors.

I'll keep checking.

[Ed Suspicious]

34. That's not cold. That's a spring thaw.

[virtualobserver]

35. I know. I just like that song.

[Ed Suspicious]

36. It is a good one.

[Eric J in MN]

8. The RCP average (including that poll) is Hillary Clinton +4.7.

That's a gap which supporters of Bernie Sanders may close by the February 1 Iowa caucus.

Bernie Sanders supporters should keep spreading his message.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html

[MineralMan]

20. I expect supporters of both candidates to keep up the

effort, right up to caucus day, and even at the local caucus meetings. It will be close, no doubt.

[BlueMTexpat]

29. That link - at least right now -

doesn't seem to have factored in the 1/18-19 poll.

In any event, I believe that both states will be close right up to the end.

[HerbChestnut]

12. Huge swing for Sanders since their last poll

Last poll in mid December: Hillary 55, Bernie 33, Martin 6

Went from a 22 point gap to a 9 point gap in a month.

[Attorney in Texas]

13. This is GREAT news. Monmouth has shown a HUGE pro-Clinton in-house factor in its prior Iowa polls:

Monmouth showed Clinton ahead by 41% in October and 22% in December when all of the more reliable Iowa pollsters showed her lead less than half or or even less that one-third that size.

For Monmouth to show the race in single digits less than 2 weeks out is excellent news!

[DesertRat]

16. K&R

[Alfresco]

21. A well placed Kick & Rec. :-)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. Thank you, compadre

[Alfresco]

23. Anytime DSB. Thanks.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. United we stand

DSB

[workinclasszero]

24. Now there are at least two polls showing Hillary winning Iowa

11 days before the caucuses!!

[Hoyt]

27. At this point polls seem useless.They are all over the place. Either the polling methodology sux or

people haven't made up their mind. We won't have to wait long to see what is really going on.

[Jarqui]

28. The demographics on this particular poll are way off

skewing it to Clinton's favor.

Can't say how much because the underlying numbers do not seem to add up.

[Still In Wisconsin]

30. OK I guess that settles it. Hillary is back to being inevitable. Time to crawl back in our holes

and assume the fetal position, Sanders supporters.

[workinclasszero]

33. More good poll news DSB

Poll: Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders in Iowa by 9 points


http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-hillary-clinton-leads-bernie-sanders-in-iowa-by-9-points/

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511040717

[Dawson Leery]

37. Another poll has her up by 5.

So she is clearly ahead by some margin despite the rise of the pony.