2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhy the No. 3 Spot in Iowa Is Worth Watching. Zogby
'The first-place finish in Iowa matters for the 2016 campaign cycle. So does third.
In 2004, a little more than two weeks before the Democratic caucuses, Howard Dean had a comfortable lead over Dick Gephardt. John Kerry and John Edwards were in third and fourth place, respectively, barely making double digits. Iowa Democrats were telling our interviewers, at a two-to-one ratio, that they preferred a candidate who would stand up for principle over someone who could defeat George W. Bush.
Then, something changed.
Reports started suggesting that people were getting tired of Mr. Deans youthful canvassers calling and coming to their door. They were tired of hearing about the Iraq war. More important, they were growing weary of Mr. Dean and Mr. Gephardt battling each other in television commercials.
My daily tracking pollsfor Reuters and NBCshowed a steady transformation. As the caucuses grew closer, Iowa Democrats suddenly preferred someone who could beat Mr. Bush by a factor of two to one. The numbers for Mr. Dean and Mr. Gephardt dropped a point or two each day as Mr. Kerry and Mr. Edwards rose about the same. With about a week to go, John Kerry surpassed Mr. Dean and Mr. Gephardt. He went on to finish first. Mr. Edwards placed second.
The situation was as dramatic in 2008. About two weeks before the caucuses, Hillary Clinton had a lead over Barack Obama and John Edwards. Then, as before, the polls started to change. Mr. Obama and Mr. Edwards finished first and second as Mrs. Clinton dropped to third place. . .
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton again faces a more serious challenge than she or her team anticipated. Bernie Sanders is within striking distance and has a hold on millennials who appeared energized to come out and votemuch as they did for Barack Obama in 2008. Former Maryland Gov. Martin OMalley has low support nationally but is drawing 5% to 8% in Iowa. If his support jumps to 15% or soit can happen; ask Gary Hart about 1984that would be enough to position him for New Hampshire and, combined with a very good showing by Mr. Sanders, would signal that a majority of Iowa Democrats rejects the inevitable nomination of the partys front-runner and best-known political name.'
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/01/19/why-the-no-3-spot-in-iowa-is-worth-watching/
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)thats my prediction. hillary will be third just like last time.
Fuddnik
(8,846 posts)Mike Nelson
(9,903 posts)...but their primary is overrated and under representative.