Honest Question: If the economy goes downhill will public want Change or Stability?
(This is not a flamebait post. An honest attempt at raising a question, setting aside my own biases as a Bernie guy. I honestly don't know the answer.)
We look at the primaries and GE through the perspective of conditions as they are in Jan. 2016. But life is fluid.
There have been disturbing news reports lately that 2016 may not be a very good year for the economy. The markets have been woozy, and a lot of other indicators are being cited as warning that the coming year will bring either a frustrating recession, or perhaps something worse with another crash.
Right now we're still dealing with the residual aftermath of what happened in 2008, and the conditions it exposed about the overall economic system. That has led to widespread anger at "the system" and a populist drive for fundamental change. That has translated into support for "change candidates" including Trump on the right and Bernie on the left.....And a more populist tone among moderates......Even on the right, GOP corporate elitists like Carly Fiorina are adopting faux populism in their message.
However, there is also a certain degree of detachment from actual crisis. Frustration and anger.....but not outright fear.
But what would happen if, for example, the warnings of another crash come true and we're faced with another full-blown crisis? Or, less dramatically, if a notable recessionary downturn increases a sense of frustration and stagnation at economic conditions?
The implications have many levels, and would affect internal dynamics of both the GOP and the Democrats in the primaries, as well as beyond that to the General.
If we see a marked downturn, would those favor the candidates of change? Would people say "Enough is enough" and demand sweeping reforms?
Or would it cause people to become more expedient and favor the more "pragmatic centrist" candidates? Would people turn towards those insiders, hoping they can just shore up the system and get through the crisis?
In a larger sense, how would that affect the current positions of the parties? Would the public decided to pick the GOP for change, putting either Clinton or Sanders at an inherent disadvantage? Or would people mistrust the GOP?
Bush v Clinton..... Bush v Bernie.....Trump v Clinton...Trump v Bernie..... Rubio v Clinton.....Cruuzzer v Bernie....The variations and possible combinations would be symbolic depending on who the nominees of the respective parties are. And the merits or drawbacks will likely depend on what happens with the economy in the months ahead.
I honestly don't know. There would be similarities to 2008. But there would also be differences.
What say ye?
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