POLITICO/GWU Battleground Poll: Obama pulls ahead of Romney (50-47)

[TroyD]

Politico/Battleground poll (which has tended to lean Romney) has Obama up 50-47

9/24/12 4:34 AM EDT

President Barack Obama has opened a national lead in a tight race that’s been static for much of the year.

A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll of likely voters finds little good news for Mitt Romney but a race that remains competitive.

Obama leads 50 percent to 47 percent, which is within the margin of error. His 50 percent job approval rating puts him at a crucial threshold for an incumbent seeking reelection. It’s an uptick from the spring and summer, but 48 percent still disapprove.

Romney, meanwhile, finds himself sliding in the wake of two events — the choice of his running mate and the Republican national convention — that were supposed to buoy his candidacy. His unfavorable rating ticked up from 46 percent to 49 percent over the past seven weeks, as the share viewing him favorably held steady at 46 percent. Personal likability boosts the president, who is viewed favorably by 53 percent.

More:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81582.html

[Blue Yorker]

1. No worries, Romney. The next job report "could" tie things up

Or something.

[TroyD]

2. I'm actually a bit nervous about the Jobs Reports

While they aren't turning out to be determinative on the race, there are 2 more of them - one the Friday after the first debate, and the second the Friday before November 6.

You never know how they could go and so it's something to be cautious about.

Btw, why is Romney still polling well with Independents? He's up 2 points with them in this poll. I would have thought he would have fallen behind by now.

[Blue Yorker]

3. You are heeding a warning that's failed over and over

But it's ok to be nervous I guess.

[TroyD]

4. Independents

What are your thoughts on how to beat Romney with Independents?

It seems to be one area where he is still holding on to a slim lead.

[longship]

5. First of all, it's a national poll!

Which are totally, and utterly useless under an electoral college system. Say what you will about the advantages/disadvantages of EVs, it is the system we have right now.

So the fucking national polls are useless in predicting the closeness of the results. it could be a dead heat in national polls and President Obama could still win with an electoral mandate.

This poll is useless, no matter what it says.

[TroyD]

6. Wouldn't call it useless : )

It's got 2 other pieces of good news which parallel other emerging trends.

1. It gives Obama a 50% approval rating

2. It shows the Democrats with a small lead in the Generic Congressional Vote (Democrats +2)

Full results:

http://images.politico.com/global/2012/09/battlegroundpoll.html

[DCBob]

8. maybe not useless but extremely misleading.

A small statistically insignificant lead in national polls could result in a landslide in the EC. What is being reported by the MSM that we have a tight race is technically correct when they only take into account national polls but its totally wrong based on state by state polling.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. The Electoral Colllege Usually Follows The Popular Vote

And as the pop vote victory gets larger the E C victory gets exponentially larger.


Also, it's extremely unlikely a candidate could win the pop vote by say more than a point or two and lose the EC vote. It almost happened in 76 and that's a great reason to get rid of it. But that's another story.