There does not seem to be any logical way for Romney to win in November save one:

[Proud Liberal Dem]

Democratic voter turnout/ability of Obama voters to safely cast a vote. This is the ONLY way that I can see Romney winning for several reasons:

1. People don't "like" Mitt and there is no possibility of a serious "personality transplant" between now and November. What you see is what you get with him and those predisposed to vote for him HATE President Obama and are using him- as a "generic Republican"- to register a vote against President Obama, nothing more, nothing less IMHO.
2. Mitt and co. have a run a horrific campaign. Too many documented stumbles, errors, and gaffes to mention. What's worse (for him) is that he not only blunders but DOUBLES DOWN on them!
3. Right-wing commentators have observed that President Obama's crowd sizes are down since 2008. While this may be true, his crowds are still WAY more crowded than Romney's crowds. There's barely even a comparison between the level of enthusiasm for President Obama and Mitt Romney based on what I've seen so far.
4. What are Mitt's solutions for fixing problems in this country? He and the Republicans have been busy pointing out how bad things economically for men, women, children, and minorities but can't/won't say how he would do a better job of it. Everything that we HAVE been able to glean from his position statements- which have been few and far between- suggest that he'll be returning us to failed Bushco-style policies, both economically and, particularly, based on Mitt's Libya debacle, in terms of foreign policy. People voted that stuff out in 2008 and nobody but the right seems particularly enthusiastic to go back to them.
5. Mitt has to "run the tables" on Election Night and capture a LOT of states to make it to 270. Using 270towin.com to play around with (it's a great site) and even assuming that the only real "swing state" that President Obama is able to win is Ohio (which is an increasingly safe bet) and Romney takes Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and even snags Nevada and Colorado in the west (not likely but just being ultra-conservative for a moment), which makes for a VERY red map, still doesn't win Romney the WH. It gets him uncomfortably close (263 EV based on the states I've selected for him) but still doesn't get him all the way to 270. Can it happen? Possibly? Is it likely? VERY doubtful IMHO.

Lest anybody accuse me of encouraging complacency, please make sure to get yourselves and your like-minded friends and family members out to vote on Election Day 2012 and make sure your right to vote is legally protected- and Mitt Romney will be relegated to the dustbin of American electoral history!

[TroyD]

1. Obama is certainly likely to win at this point in time, BUT:

1. There are concerns about Republican voter suppression, particularly of minorities. (There's another thread here where Bill Clinton discusses it).

2. A financial crisis or foreign affairs crisis (eg. October surprise).

3. The potential for Romney to re-bound in the debates.

It's important not to assume it's in the bag. We must be cautious over the next 6 weeks. That's a long time in politics.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

2. I definitely agree with you about #1 (which I specifically included in my OP)

As for #2, a financial crisis or foreign affairs crisis could certainly negatively affect President Obama- though only insofar IMHO as it is perceived that he doesn't handle it well and/or was to directly blame for it. As for #3: ????? If Mitt can't take President Obama on indirectly and has problem connecting with voters, I'm having trouble seeing how he's going to somehow going to be able to use the debates to "re-bound". Like you, I'm not ruling anything out and don't want to get complacent but I'm just struggling to see how Romney pulls this out. I just don't see it at the moment. Mitt's not going to going to be able to seriously overhaul his campaign (or his personality) to try to become "Reagan 2.0" over the next 6 weeks. If people suddenly turn on President Obama, it won't be because of any newfound love for Romney. I can at least guarantee THAT!

[Sophiegirl]

3. Never underestimate

The GOP's determination to steal an election.

[Hukdonfonix]

4. I dont see it happening.

Even giving him FL and VA (which is unlikely) I can't see him winning OHIO, NV or CO.

Best case scenario for Mittster is around 255 ev's