We Ask America: WISCONSIN poll: (Obama +12), (Baldwin +12)

[TroyD]

2012/09/24/

Poll type: Automated

Date: Sept. 20-23, 2012

Participants: 1,238 Likely Voters

Margin of Error: ± 2.8%

~~~~~~~~

PRESIDENT

Barack Obama - 52.5%

Mitt Romney - 41.0%

~~~~~~~~

SENATE

Tammy Baldwin - 51.8%

Tommy Thompson - 40.4%

http://weaskamerica.com/2012/09/24/big-cheese/

[mucifer]

1. Wow! Gooooo Tammy! Was she there with The President at the rally yesterday?

[TroyD]

2. Yes, I believe Baldwin was with Obama yesterday

Btw, I just edited the thread title from (+11) to (+12) since that's how other sites (eg. RCP) are rounding it off this morning.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[Blue Yorker]

3. The lead may be higher than 12%

If.....this is an automated poll (as it is), then Obama's lead would have been higher if cell phones had been contacted; therefore, Obama is likely crushing Romney in a devastating way.

[TroyD]

4. How much higher can it be?

I think Obama won Wisconsin by 14 points in 2008, so it's not likely to go higher than that, is it?

[Brother Buzz]

11. Arithmetic - 6.4% undecided

A reasonable assumption, weighing the Romney gaffes and Ryan's wonderfully popular ideas, 2/3rds of the undecided vote will fall in Obama's camp which would produce a 16 point lead.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

6. That's the first thing that occurred to me...

When I saw it was an automated survey. We typically do several points better on live surveys that include cell phones.

Tammy and friends have been blanketing the airwaves with ads during the past several weeks, which is good because at least in Milwaukee she's getting precious little free media (neither is Thompson, to be fair). But Thompson's ad response has been pretty muted by comparison.

I think she's been very effective defining Thompson as "no longer on your side."

[TroyD]

7. Baldwin probably has less need to advertise in the big city

Isn't that where her Congressional district is? So she's probably better known there than she is in the rural areas.

Btw, isn't the Chamber of Commerce spending $1 million against Baldwin saying she supports the 'unpopular' public option?

I think Karl Rove is spending $1 million against her as well.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

8. Tammy's District is in and around Madison...

It's reliably Democratic (often referred to by conservatives as "Moscow on the Mendota&quot . Milwaukee County is also heavily Democratic. In those to areas, it's all about the turn-out. Some of the smaller cities in the state: Green Bay, La Crosse, Eau Claire, Kenosha, et. al., tend to lean Democratic but still have a strong Independent streak. That's where the battle is, in my opinion.

If Madison and Milwaukee can offset the massively Republican enclaves of Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington counties, then the balance lies in those other cities. The north woods of Wisconsin is heavily Republican, but VERY sparsely populated.

[TroyD]

9. Does anyone know whether Sen. Herb Kohl will be campaigning with Baldwin?

Is he giving her any assistance to help her connect with his base in the state?

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

10. Kohl was at the Obama event on Saturday

I don't know what he's been up to otherwise. But that's pretty much been the story of his political career.

[mucifer]

5. What's interesting is Nate Silver's numbers

POLLS 538 WT. DATE DEM REP MARGIN
PPP 9/19 49.0 45.0 Baldwin +4.0
NBC/Marist 9/18 48.0 46.0 Baldwin +2.0
Rasmussen 9/17 49.0 46.0 Baldwin +3.0
The New York Times/Quinnipiac 9/17 47.0 47.0 Tie
Marquette U. 9/16 50.0 41.0 Baldwin +9.0
YouGov 9/14 43.0 47.0 Thompson +4.0
PPP 9/13 48.0 45.0 Baldwin +3.0

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Maybe these numbers are older. I guess we can see how things progress in the coming days.

I really am surprised that Tammy is doing so well considering that she is very liberal.

[a kennedy]

12. Saw my first against Tammy advertisement today...

run and paid for by crossroads. and I think it's going to get really bad.... 40 some days to go....

[DCBob]

13. Those are big leads.

I think the Romney campaign thought that had a chance here with homeboy Lyin Ryan but that looks very unlikely now.