During Primary Season, It's Easy to Mistake Enthusiasm for a Mandate

[MineralMan]

The Democratic party has two candidates with significant support in the polling. On DU and in our local communities, people who are politically active are intensely aware of the race for the nomination. We go online or attend rallies and meetings, where we hear lots of enthusiastic people praising one or the other of the two candidates.

Enthusiasm is contagious, but really only to those who experience it. Those enthusiastic crowds for either candidate do not represent the overall voting public. Online, the most vocal of supporters for a candidate get praise for their enthusiasm, too. It's easy to fall under the spell of believing that enthusiastic supporters equate to general support.

Don't be deceived by this, or you may find yourself disappointed soon. Here's an example: I live in St. Paul, MN and near Minneapolis. There's an excellent chance that Bernie Sanders will win a majority of the votes in those two cities on caucus day, March 1. There's lots of enthusiasm for him in both cities. There are also roughly 600,000 people in those two cities.

However, the overall Twin Cities metro area has a population of around 2.5 million. It's made up of suburbs, some of which vote in the majority for Republicans. In others, moderate Democrats stand the best chance for election. The number of precincts outside of the progressive strongholds of Minneapolis and St. Paul is much higher than those in the cities proper. In addition, the two cities have distinct neighborhoods, each with their own precincts. Many of those will choose Clinton in their caucuses.

The Minneapolis Star Tribune just published a Democratic primary poll. In that statewide poll, Clinton got 59%, while Sanders registered just over 25%. How is that possible? Simple. Delegates to the national convention are assigned according to the caucus results within each congressional district. When polls inquire statewide, the results are often different than the feelings of those in the cities with the highest populations.

There's lots and lots of enthusiasm in our Twin Cities. That does not mean that the entire state or even the entire Twin Cities metro area shares that enthusiasm. The reality is in Minnesota that Hillary Clinton will probably win the majority of delegates from this state. We'll know for sure on March 2, once the results are tabulated from every precinct. Not before.

I'll be watching closely. I won't be letting urban enthusiasm confuse me. The people will tell the story, statewide. That's what counts.

[cali]

1. I love banality. No, not really

You seem to think your pedestrian observation dropped condescendingly from on high, are pearls of wisdom.

[MineralMan]

4. My observations are just that - my observations.

Banal? I can't speak to that. Instead, whether I'm right or not will be apparent on March 2. Perhaps we can revisit my observations at that time. I'll look forward to that, cali.

[questionseverything]

27. may i ask how transparently are the caucus numbers reported in your state?

are the individual caucus numbers reported along with the delegate counts so anyone could check the math or are only delegate counts reported?

[MineralMan]

28. A vote is taken at every precinct caucus,

using a secret ballot. The votes are counted publicly right then by people at the precinct who are elected that night to tally the vote. The ballots and the totals are handed over to DFL party officials and preserved. The results from each precinct are available from the DFL Party after the precincts, and will be reported at the State Senate District or County conventions about a month later.

Transparent? It couldn't be any more transparent. I'll be a delegate at the District convention and if the number reported was any different than the count at the precinct level, I'd raise a stink. Every precinct will be represented by multiple people from that precinct at the convention.

We're really strict about that stuff here in Minnesota.

[questionseverything]

30. minn does have a good reputation but

you did not really answer my question

are the precinct totals publicly announced that night? a month later really is not transparent at all

by then any damage would be done

[mythology]

23. How ironic coming from you

You treat everybody who doesn't agree with you with condescension.

[cantbeserious]

2. What A Stretch Attack On Bernie - See The Seven Stages Of Attack Defined Here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511056509

[MineralMan]

3. Not an attack on anyone. It's an analysis of political realities

in the state where I live. No attack in what I wrote.

[cantbeserious]

5. This Citizen Perceives The OP As An Attack On Bernie And His Supporters

This attack is perfectly consistent with the Establishment attacks already in play.

[MineralMan]

9. I have nothing to do with your perceptions, frankly.

I'm an observer. I'll be voting for whoever gets the Democratic nomination. I'll be campaigning for that candidate as well. Primary races are what they are. I don't invest all that much of my time in them, really. Once there is a nominee, I'll shift into campaign mode.

Truly, I'm not attacking anyone in this thread, just making some observations, based on experience.

[cantbeserious]

25. So Says The Arch HRC Supporter And Primary Poll Watcher

eom

[KingFlorez]

6. I think your post is very realistic

Being more fired up doesn't always equal more votes. That sentiment has been the downfall of many a campaign.

[MineralMan]

11. Thanks. We'll know pretty soon how things will line up,

I think. Lots of people are making predictions right now. It seems to be the most popular hobby on DU, really. I'm just joining in the fun.

[farleftlib]

18. Stage II

Light, casual mockery as the self-belief among supporters grows (no, dears, a left-wing extremist will not win, but it’s nice to see you excited).

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck...

[brooklynite]

7. Same situation in Iowa...

Sanders' support is concentrated in Des Moines and College towns.

[libdem4life]

8. Worked pretty well last time, IIRC.

Not to say a lot were disappointed, but nonetheless it got the first black man into the White House

I'm ready for the first Jewish man to be the next resident/President. And a lot of other enthusiastic supporters feel that way, too.

Don't count out Momentum...it's completely different from enthusiasm, as I know you know.

[MineralMan]

15. I'm ready to go to work for whoever wins the nomination.

That's my plan. I get just one vote in my precinct primary. The people will decide who the nominee will be. I'll be 100% behind the nominee in the general election, as always.

[libdem4life]

17. So will I...check my sig line...but in that order.

[Hortensis]

10. More "banality": Bernie has a month to woo the black vote.

Unfortunately (for the party), the bulk of our Hispanic folk are clustered in a few safe states, making winning their vote less critical for our candidates right now.

The same cannot be said for blacks. Their 13% is important far beyond that number. No Democratic candidate can win the nomination without winning them, and the Democratic Party will not win the presidency without their support. As said, Bernie has another month to win them over in significant numbers, and then we're at Super Tuesday, closely followed by another, secondary powerhouse date, 3/15.

[MineralMan]

13. There are many factors in play.

I didn't mention any demographic voting blocs at all. That wasn't even on my mind.

[Hortensis]

16. Just more realities enthusiasm can't make go away.

[MineralMan]

19. I assume, like all demographic groups, they'll

make their own decisions as they think best. My opinions are not needed for black voters to decide who they prefer.

[Gothmog]

12. I am so looking forward to Super Tuesday

[MineralMan]

14. I think March 1 will be a very important date in

this primary season. We'll have a much clearer picture of things on Super Wednesday, I'm sure.

[Gothmog]

21. Bloomberg is waiting until March 2 to decide to run

Bloomberg knows that the race will be somewhat settled by then

[questionseverything]

29. when the numbers come so fast no one watches

http://bradblog.com/?p=7875

Results Drastically Changed

The election numbers have radically changed in Monroe County since the May 18th election. At least as reported on the SoS website, and as confirmed by local officials.

It's not all that unusual for the unofficial numbers to move a bit following election day, as absentee and provisional ballots are counted and added in to the totals, and as precinct numbers are double-checked for accuracy in the post-election canvass. It is, however, unusual, for vote totals to get a great deal smaller rather than larger in the days following the election. And that's what seems to have happened in Monroe County --- radically so.

Somehow, more than a thousand votes disappeared entirely, as the election results in the Dem and GOP Senate primaries have almost entirely changed.

[whatchamacallit]

20. Sermon on the dangers of enthusiasm?

[MineralMan]

22. I don't do sermons. I'm an atheist.

Thanks for visiting the thread.

[tk2kewl]

24. Yep... It ain't nothin but a thing

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1280101118

[Splinter Cell]

26. During Primary Season, It's Easy to Mistake Entitlement for a Mandate.

Feel the Bern.

[farleftlib]

31. Oh snap

I wish there was an emoji for that but this will have to do.

[djean111]

32. Exactly. And, evidently, it bites. n/t

[Alfresco]

33. An early AM Kick. :-)