For Bookmark and posterity purposes, make your Iowa vote percentage prediction

[Godhumor]

Or, if you're feeling really bold, your delegate count prediction, but I think share of vote is probably easier.

So general rules for the thread, if you would be so kind:

1 post each. If between now and the caucus your prediction changes, just edit your previous post.

Not looking for commentary on how you feel about other people's predictions. This is for looking back after the caucus and seeing who is closest to reality.

Use whatever criteria you want to make your decision, but you don't have to explain it. Feel free to keep it to just numbers if you're so inclined.

I will try and keep this thread bumped between now and the day of the caucus so everyone who wants to play can.

And, as the thread starter, I'll put my prediction in the subject line of the first reply.

[Godhumor]

1. HRC - 52% SBS - 42% MOM - 6% n/t

[dlwickham]

4. will MOM get 6%

Seems a bit high for him

I think Hillary pulls 55 with sanders 42

[Kentonio]

2. BS: 58% HC: 34% MOM: 8%

[JonLeibowitz]

3. SBS- 47% HRC - 45% MOM - 8%

[brooklynite]

5. Understand that if O'Malley doesn't clear 15%, he'll be reported as 0.

HRC - 53% SBS - 47% MOM - 0%

[Godhumor]

7. Right, why just went with vote share as percentage instead of by share to delegates

Because I figure we'll get the records on that, and it is how Missy people think of primaries thanks to polling set ups.

[ISUGRADIA]

14. Just to make this clear

Just to make this clear, the Iowa Democratic Party will not be releasing any raw votes from the caucuses.

That is the only votes reported will be based on delegates elected.

Plus Martin O'Malley will have a statewide vote total. He has to get 15% at individual caucuses in order to be able to elect delegates. I'm sure he'll meet the threshold at least in many caucuses, which will translate into delegates state wide.

My prediction
Bernie Sanders 49%
Hillary Clinton 46%
Martin O'Malley 3%
Uncommitted 2%

[SunSeeker]

6. HRC 49; BS 47; MO 4. nt

[Odin2005]

8. Sanders 51%, Clinton 43%, O'Malley 6%

[winter is coming]

9. BS-55%,HRC-39%,MOM-6%, n/t

[underpants]

10. I'll go HRC 52 - Bernie 48

[LWolf]

11. I predict Sanders will win.

I have no prediction for percentages.

[ram2008]

12. Bernie: 51%, Hillary 45%, O'Malley 4%

Bernie wins by getting undecideds, O'Malley voters, and a surge of new, young voters and independents.

[edgineered]

13. SBS - 51%, HRC - 35%, MOM - 14%

[restorefreedom]

15. bs 51% mom 26% hrc 23% nt

[elias49]

17. Whoa! We have an outlier here!

Those numbers would make things interesting.

[restorefreedom]

19. thinking maybe 2008 deja vu with hillary coming third

would love to see mom make a strong showing.

[elias49]

20. Ah, yes! The sweet aroma of memories!

I kind of like MOM too. And he's only 50 something years old.

[restorefreedom]

21. he has a good future no matter what happens now, imo. nt

[Armstead]

16. 48 to 48 percent to 4 percent.....In other words, I haven't a clue

You can bookmark this to embarrass me, unless it is a dead heat tie,.

[hrmjustin]

18. Hillary-52.5% Sanders 47.5% Martin 0%

[mahina]

22. SBS 52% HRC 48%

[JRLeft]

23. If I were a betting man, I would pick HRC to win. I will work hard to

make sure my prediction is incorrect.

[Skwmom]

24. I'll predict the media spin: Favorable to Hillary, Unfavorable to Bernie no matter the outcome.

I think that is a pretty safe bet.

[Godhumor]

25. 1 week out bump

Today we'll go with a morning bump.

[PatrickforO]

26. Bernie 55%, Hillary 45% (O'Malley voters <15% so mostly go to Bernie)

[berni_mccoy]

27. Sanders 50%, Clinton 47% O'Malley 3%

It's going to be close and O'Malley will become Clinton's spoiler at which point all the Clinton supporters will blame him.

[Motown_Johnny]

28. Bernie 53%. Hillary 46% Martin 1% n/t

[Half-Century Man]

29. Sanders 60(+)%, Clinton 35%, O'Malley 5%

Wild guess, first time predictor.

[randome]

30. Clinton 4086%, Sanders 317%, MOM 2.64%

[hr][font color="blue"][center]A 90% chance of rain means the same as a 10% chance:
It might rain and it might not.[/center][/font][hr]

[OilemFirchen]

31. Again:

Clinton by 14%, 36 delegates.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511048638#post12

[OilemFirchen]

32. Kicking this with an update.

In light of recent quality polling, I'm revising my prediction to Clinton by 7%, 32 delegates.

[Godhumor]

33. An evening before the caucus bump n/t

[jfern]

34. Bernie 49.8 Hillary 49.7 O'Malley 0.4 Uncommited 0.1

[Rosa Luxemburg]

35. Bernie 48% Hillary 47% Martin 5%

[alcibiades_mystery]

36. HRC: 52%; BS: 40%; MO'M: 8%