2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumCould Republicans Lose the House?
Bill Kristol says GOP could lose the House
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/could-republicans-lose-house_652981.html
The new Politico/GWU/Battleground poll seems to me, from a quick perusal of its internals, to have produced solid and non-quirky results consistent with several other surveys. It has a D+3 sample, and shows an Obama margin of 3 on the presidential ballot test and a 1 point Democratic edge on the generic congressional ballot.
Which raises the question: Is the conventional assumption that Republicans will continue to hold the House sound?
It may not be. Two other recent likely voter polls have produced an R+1 and a tied generic congressional ballot. So let's say that right now the congressional ballot is tied. The closest we've come to an even national popular vote for the House in recent years was in 2000, when Republicans had a narrow popular vote margin of .3 percent, and ended up with a narrow 221-212 margin in seats. An even popular vote tends to translate into pretty even results in seats split between the two parties. In the wave elections of 2006, 2008, and 2010, by contrast, the parties' popular vote margins ranged from 6 to 8 percentage points. The middling GOP majorities of 2002 and 2004 were based on national popular vote margins of more than 2 1/2 points.
In other words, IF the polls are right, and IF nothing much changes over the remaining six weeks, the House could well be in play. Maybe things will move in a Republican direction. Or maybe Republicans will hold on in an even popular vote election with the help of incumbency advantages and post-2010 redistricting. But it's also possible that an Obama +3 victory on Election Day would drag the Democrats to an edge in the congressional voteand control of the House. In any case, based on current polling, I don't think one can say that it's now out of the question that we could wake up on the morning of November 7 to the prospect of ... Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
elleng
(130,127 posts)Give U.S. a Congress that works for US!
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NHDEMFORLIFE
(489 posts)The Democratic leadership, at both ends of Pennsylvania Ave., would be getting a rare do-over if we can overturn the 2010 disaster. Realistically, I don't see how we could make that sort of pick-up. A drawback to Romney being in a meltdown would be the big money players in the GOP tossing their dough at the House and Senate races, conceding Mittens' defeat by mid-October.
Obama could start making the case, "Give me a Congress that will work with me," but his coattails may not be long enough to spark such a huge shift. If we can keep the Senate and make significant gains in the house I'd be very happy on the evening of Nov. 6.
FirstLight
(13,352 posts)FOR THE NITE CROWD!
Ford_Prefect
(7,817 posts)It is good to know the popular vote might be turning toward a possible change of the House majority. However We may be further than many can realize from achieving that result because the polls don't take into account effects of legalistic and illegal bending of the vote count.
Florida in 2000, 2004, Ohio 2004, Wisconsin 2012 all had one thing in common. The vote count was adjusted to suit the Republican controllers of the local election process.
This time around it is not only that Republican activists can and likely will alter the vote count. Many people may not be able to vote due to voter ID laws and other aggressive programs to intimidate potential voters and remove democratic voters from voting lists.
elleng
(130,127 posts)HopeHoops
(47,675 posts)SoapBox
(18,791 posts)...Prez O is doing good. We just need Bagger Mittens and Coupon Care Man to keep talking...they'll destroy their own campaign.
NOW, everyone does need to start paying attention to not only the Congressional races but races on ALL levels as well.
Send the Repukes and Baggers packing!!!!
cr8tvlde
(1,185 posts)CTyankee
(63,769 posts)When I want to be happy I think of Obama holding all of the cards in the House and Senate come Wednesday morning, Nov. 7.
elleng
(130,127 posts)Pisces
(5,592 posts)pick up all swing states.
johnnyrocket
(1,773 posts)And of course gain the House keep the Senate & President is icing.
flamingdem
(39,304 posts)Bake
(21,977 posts)I hope it happens!
Bake