Aggregate polling in early states. Clinton with leads in 3 of the first 4 states

[Godhumor]

We all know the RCP and Pollster Aggregating services, so today it is time to use the new 538 aggregation (Note: Not their predictions, their straight up poll aggregation. These are poll numbers not predicted chance to win.). RCP does a straight forward weighted average for their aggregation and Pollster used a custom regression to fit polls. 538 also does a weighted average adjusted by sample size, how recent the poll and, unique to 538 adjustment for house effect (A poll's weighting is adjusted dependent on whether the poll has an inherent bias towards one candidate over the others.).

Most people miss the 538 aggregations, as they're well below the predictions on the 538 pages for each individual contest. But the numbers are interesting.

So without further ado:

Iowa
HRC 48%
SBS 43.3%
MOM 4.4%

NH
SBS 52.4%
HRC 39.6%
MOM 2.8%

NV
HRC 50.6%
SBS 28.3%
MOM <1%

SC
HRC 57.4%
SBS 32.9%
MOM <1%

And the few Super Tuesday states with enough polling to aggregate:

FL
HRC 61.1%
SBS 26%
MOM 3.6%

NC
HRC 59%
SBS 27.2%
MOM 3.6%

OH
HRC 53%
SBS 38.3%
MOM <1%


You can find all these through the interactive on the 538 homepage.

So my esteemed prediction: O'Malley calls it quits after NH or Super Tuesday depending on how bad of a drubbing he takes.

[reformist2]

1. Once voters start paying attention in a given state, Bernie's numbers triple.

[4dsc]

2. Yes, this is his plan

To win in Iowa or NH will give him plenty of air time he sourly needs. then watch the poll numbers go up.

[Godhumor]

3. He still needs to breakthrough with non-whites

Even in Iowa, where they're underrepresented, he is losing that demographic by 40+.