What will the H supporters do when Bernie wins Iowa?

[RobertEarl]

I hope they will admit that H can't win and they join us in supporting Bernie.

[Metric System]

1. Already rubbing our noses in it when the results haven't even come in.

[RobertEarl]

4. It is inevitable

So what are your plans?

[Health Wagon]

14. Continue the course....

Clinton supporters!

[uponit7771]

2. Shrug and look at SC numbers, Sanders flops there he's toast... right now it stinks there for

...him after strapping himself around Obama haters Bigga and West...

We'll see

What will Sanders supporters do?

Call for more consipriacy?

tia

[RobertEarl]

8. You don't get it?

H loses Iowa is a sign that she is not, and Bernie is, our inevitable candidate.

[uponit7771]

45. Ummmm, nooooo... Hillary can lose IA and NH... pound Sanders in SC and everyone will say told you so

... cause Sanders wheel house is those states

[hill2016]

3. wait for Nevada and South Carolina

[Betty Karlson]

35. Nevada is quickly becoming a lost cause...

the same uptick we saw for Sanders in November-December? Happening in Nevada now.

[Empowerer]

5. Because a handful of voters voting on caucus night in an virtually all-white state SHOULD determine

who the Democratic nominee will be - why should anyone else in the country get to have a say after Iowa has spoken.

Funny, thing, though - I have a feeling you won't be so certain that Iowa should speak for the the rest of the country if Bernie Sanders loses the caucuses . . .

Tell you what - why don't we ALL just wait to see how the Iowa caucuses, and then New Hampshire and then South Carolina and - Hey! Here's an idea - let's let the REST of the country vote, too, before deciding the outcome!

That might be fun, don't you think?

[RobertEarl]

11. Bernie has already won

His being such a huge challenge already makes him a winner. It's amazing how far he has come against such great odds. He is rising so rapidly and H falling so fast that Bernie is inevitable.

[Empowerer]

15. Ok.

[wildeyed]

18. You probably define 'win' differently

than most people. And also 'inevitable'. But I guess I have never experienced the wellspring of the bern at the quantum level like you

[Beacool]

32. Thank you, you made me laugh.

I wonder if his supporters are a) Too young to know better or b) Never followed politics. Some of the posts on GDP are akin to being in a parallel universe.

[VulgarPoet]

6. Too soon to call it.

[Motown_Johnny]

7. Call it an unscientific online poll.

But we should not be counting our chickens before they hatch. Iowa is not a sure thing by any wild stretch.

Something like 27% of Bernie's support is concentrated in 3 counties (with colleges). This gives Hillary a demographic advantage in the delegate count, which is all that matters in Iowa.


Iowa won't be easy, but IF Bernie wins it will be a very important statement.

[CoffeeCat]

38. I agree.that it is a tight race

but I've also seen the articles about Bernie's support being concentrated in college towns. He's doing very well in those areas, true. Johnson County, Story County and Blackhawk County (home to the U of Iowa, ISU and UNI, respectively). will be blowouts for him.

No one ever mentions Polk County, which is Iowa's most populous county. 19 percent of the states total delegates are here. Bernie will do very well here.

He's also doing well in Linn County, which has the second most populous city, Cedar Rapids.

Bernie has been campaigning in more conservative parts of NW and western Iowa, and drawing large crowds, for months. These were Clinton strongholds in 08, but Bernie has spent a lot of time there and has quite a few offices in those areas. His crowds have been very big there. Clinton's have not.

I do agree that she's got strong support in smaller towns and counties that are more conservative. Given that there are 1,600+ precincts in Iowa, each with its own caucus, that's a lot of delegates that add up.

It's going to depend on turnout. That's what it boils down to.

[brooklynite]

9. You want Clinton to quit after 1/2 of 1% of Democrats have voted

[Gothmog]

10. Clinton does not need to win Iowa while Iowa is a must win for Sanders

Sanders has to win in Iowa to be viable but Hillary Clinton can lose in a 90+% white voting population state and still win in South Carolina and the other states that do not have 90+% white voting populations http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/01/11/bernie_sanders_could_win_iowa_and_new_hampshire.html

What would not change, though, is that Clinton would remain the clear favorite for the Democratic nomination.

Even if Hillary staggers out of New Hampshire with her second loss in as many contests, she’ll still have the same massive advantages she enjoys today: the campaign and super PAC cash, the ground game, the endorsements, the pledged superdelegates, and the general support of a party establishment that won’t soon forget that her challenger is not technically even a part of the Democratic Party. An unexpected loss in Iowa and a less surprising one in New Hampshire wouldn’t change that.

She’d also have a chance to get back on her feet—and fast. Consider what comes next: Nevada (Feb. 20) and South Carolina (Feb. 27), two significantly more diverse states than lily-white Iowa and lily-whiter New Hampshire, and two places where Clinton currently enjoys massive leads in the polls. According to the RealClearPolitics rolling average, Clinton holds a 20-point advantage in Nevada and a whopping 40-point lead in South Carolina. March brings better news still for the former secretary of state, starting with a Super Tuesday slate that includes friendly territory in the form of southern states like Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia. The rest of the month, meanwhile, includes several big, delegate-rich contests that she won eight years ago during her battle with Barack Obama: Michigan, Florida, and Ohio. Yes, Sanders could have the momentum this time next month, but it’ll be on him to to find a way to keep it as he heads into significantly more challenging terrain than Iowa or New Hampshire, which were always going to offer his best chance at pulling off an early upset or two.

None of this is to say that Clinton has the nomination locked up already. She doesn’t. But if Iowa and New Hampshire are must-wins for anyone, it’s Sanders. Hillary can—and likely would—survive a slow start and still be the one standing on stage at the Democratic National Convention when the balloons come down this summer. Bernie, though, has no such margin of error.

Sanders is doing well in states with 90+% white voting populations and these states are not sufficient for Sanders to win the nomination. There are four states where Sanders is polling well in: Utah, Iowa, New Hampshire and Vermont. Texas has almost twice the number of delegates of these four states combined

[RobertEarl]

12. tl/dr

Sanders called the notion that he must win Iowa's caucuses against Hillary Clinton "mythology,"
By BigBearJohn - 6:43 PM

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511072547

[Gothmog]

13. Sanders would need to win 70 percent of Iowa's delegates...to even "be on track" to stay competitive

According to one of the experts for the Cook Report, Sanders needs to win big in Iowa to have a chance http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/sanders-needs-more-than-a-win-in-iowa-to-beat-clinton

As David Wasserman wrote in the Cook Political Report last week, "98 percent of pledged Democratic delegates will come from states with lower shares of liberal whites than Iowa and New Hampshire." That is a big problem for Sanders who has yet to prove he can expand his base....

Yet, even then, delegate allocation is proportional, which means that Sanders would have to begin winning by major margins to make the race a serious contest.

Wasserman estimates that according to his models, Sanders would "need to win 70 percent of Iowa's delegates and 63 percent of New Hampshire's delegates" to even "be on track" to stay competitive with Clinton in later states where demographically speaking, Clinton has shown she has more support. And in a states like Florida and South Carolina, Clinton leads in recent polls by 36 points and 19 points, respectively.

"It is not merely the delegate process that favors Hillary, it is the voters. She has earned the loyalty and support of communities of color, women, the LGBTQ community, environmentalists, and other vital parts of the Democratic coalition," says Democratic strategist Paul Begala, a Clinton supporter. "Bernie's coalition - so far - is more narrow. It is impressive in its energy and its passion, but it is, I think, more narrow."

I have not seen any projections or polls that show that Sanders being close to these numbers. Again, Sanders is only polling well in states with 90+% white voting populations and if Sanders does not get 70% of the delegates in Iowa then he has no chance of being the nominee

[RobertEarl]

16. I recall

You saying a while back, along with all the pundits, that Bernie never stood a chance. Haven't you learned ANYTHING since then?

Feel the Bern!! Screw the pundits. They used to say Obama couldn't win!! Bwahahahahah~!!

[mythology]

20. If they give you too long, didn't read

then you're probably wasting your time on somebody who isn't actually interested in a discussion of facts and such. You can lead a horse to water and all.

[RobertEarl]

22. Well

It was a mere recite of some pundit's number wagging and not answering the question of what will they do when Bernie wins. Which you ducked too.

I do recall the pundits number wagging about Obama 8 years ago. Don't you?

[book_worm]

17. Congratulate you--What will you do if Hillary wins?

[DFW]

23. See post #21 for your answer n/t

[hobbit709]

19. some of them will start frothing at the mouth and spin even faster.

[cherokeeprogressive]

21. Complain about Iowa "hijacking" the democratic process.

[StevieM]

24. Well I know what we won't do IF Sanders wins Iowa. We won't demand that Sanders supporters

abandon their candidate and support Hillary while threatening not to vote for him if he is the nominee.

All the threats not to support the other candidate in the GE have come from Sanders supporters. Every single one that I have read or heard.

And the suggestion that Hillary should drop out and yield the nomination to Sanders if he wins Iowa, or Iowa and New Hampshire is ridiculous. Those two states get heavy influence in picking the nominee--but they don't get the exclusive right to pick the nominee. It's insane to suggest that the race should end after only two states have voted, or that Clinton is somehow behaving badly if she doesn't yield the nomination after losing two states.

Besides, if Sanders really has it locked up after winning two states then there should be no harm in Clinton staying in the race. In fact, it would make Sanders look strong to keep winning state after state against a major opponent.

As for Hillary's supporters, we should continue to vote our consciences and support the candidate who we believe is the best person for the job.

The same goes for Sanders supporters. Would they ever drop their candidate just because he lost the first couple of states, or would they continue to advocate for his election in subsequent primaries and caucuses?

It also seems a bit inappropriate to suggest that the early states are limited to Iowa and New Hampshire. Let's not forget about Nevada and South Carolina, and the opportunity for Latinos and African-Americans to start influencing the race.

Of course, let's also not forget that Iowa hasn't happened yet, and as of now it is a dead heat.

[in_cog_ni_to]

25. For as long as I can remember, winning Iowa and NH meant that candidate is the likely nominee,

But NOW, the goalposts move to SC (!), the FOURTH primary! Why is that? Because they know Bernie will most likely win Iowa, NH and Nevada.

It's pathetic.

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

[Beacool]

30. What's pathetic is the arrogance of some of his supporters.

It's going to be a long slog and it's going to get really nasty if you are all going to brag about something that hasn't occurred yet.

[NanceGreggs]

31. What's pathetic ...

... is promoting the idea that goalposts have been moved.

If losing in Iowa meant the candidate who lost had no chance at the nomination, Iowa would be the only primary state. There would be no point in going any further, if Iowa alone was the determining factor.

Bernie's only real shot is Iowa and NH, where the predominantly white demographics are in his favour. Are you suggesting that the voices of AAs and minorities in other states should not be heard after Iowa weighs-in? Are you suggesting that only the white demographic in Iowa and NH should determine the nominee?

The goalposts are exactly where they've always been.

Oh, and BTW - Bernie himself said today that the "necessity of him winning in Iowa" in a myth. So if it's not necessary for him, why would it be necessary for Hillary? Or do you think Bernie is "moving the goalposts" by stating that a win there is not determinate of who the nominee will be?

[leftynyc]

37. LOL - well yes

We actually have to go ALL the way back to Bill Clinton to find a candidate that lost both IA and NH and still managed to win the White House. You think HIllary is going to drop out after two teeny states? That's hilarious.

[Binkie The Clown]

26. Expect the usual stages of grief...

denial will take them a long time to get over. For quite a while their line will be "the next primary...". Then will come anger and things like "Bernie stole the election (in some unspecified way)", and "If Bernie becomes president you'll all be sorry you didn't support HRC."

Just wait. We see all the stages play out right here before our very eyes.

[NanceGreggs]

34. Bernie supporters ...

... have already been busy with "the election is going to be stolen for HRC by the DNC, Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, the "powers that be" in the Dem Party, the "Establishment", etc.

They've also been saying that "we'll all be sorry we didn't support Bernie" from day one of his campaign, because HRC will declare war on at least three nations within hours of her inauguration, will appoint Goldman Sachs execs to Cabinet positions, and will confiscate the assets of the middle-class and hand them over to the 1%.

You really should make an effort to keep up. "The nomination will be STOLEN from Bernie" meme has been widely circulated since he declared his candidacy. So attempting to project that behaviour onto HRC supporters is really rather silly at this point - being that the BS supporters have cornered that market since day one.

[NanceGreggs]

27. So - wait, what?

The supporters of the front-runner in all nat'l polls should admit that she can't win the nomination if Bernie wins Iowa?

Didn't BS himself just say that his "winning Iowa being necessary is a myth"? So the guy lagging behind doesn't need to win in Iowa, but the clear front-runner in countless other states does need to?

Is this that "corporate math" I've been hearing about lately?

[Beacool]

28. Nothing.

He might win IA and he will definitely win NH. Two states, 48 more to go.

[Warren DeMontague]

29. They're gonna shit! They're gonna kill us!

Well make up your mind, dude. Are they gonna shit, or are they gonna kill us?

[Le Taz Hot]

33. I'll have no idea.

I've had to now put all of them on Ignore. On the rare occasion I actually talk to one I manage to get myself zoinked. But you guys report back to me.

[leftynyc]

36. I'll yawn

and wait for the other 49 states to have their say. You do realize Bill Clinton lost both IA and NH, don't you? I'm not about to let two tiny states pick our candidate and get the strongest one to drop out over meaningless losses in IA and NH (I actually think she's going to win IA with their wacky caucus but it really doesn't matter to me at all).

[Vogon_Glory]

39. Keep campaigning for Hillary

Keep campaigning for Hillary. In case you haven't noticed, the complexions of both the voters in the Democratic primaries as well as in the general elections have changed. A Sanders win in NH or in Iowa might have been mighty portents of doomsday back in 1960, but NO Democrat can win solely on the strength of a lily-white voting block either nationally or in most states these days.

HRC has proven strength among Afro-Americans and Hispanics; the jury is out in regards to Senator Sanders.

[cali]

40. What will you do if he loses? Predicting victory is a lousy idea

[lunamagica]

41. *If* Sanders wins Iowa, I'll wait to see what happens in the rest of the states. It's amazing that

you believe that a small homogeneous state should decide the nomination.

Iowa is over 90% white. So, minorities shouldn't have any say in the process, uh?

[workinclasszero]

42. I would just wait till SC after Hillary wins it

and gets twice as many delegates as Bernie would get in Iowa then urge all Bernie backers to get behind the leader, Hillary Clinton.

Then after Super Tuesday when Hillary wins all the delegates she needs for the nomination, I would insist that all Bernie followers get behind our nominee, Hillary Clinton.

Especially after Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren endorse her for president. We should all unite against the republicans at that time.

[Odin2005]

43. Anyone remember the PUMAs?

[brooklynite]

44. "Sanders: It's A 'Mythology' That I Need To Win Iowa"

Not feeling the "Bern"?