New Quinnipiac Iowa Poll Bernie 49% Clinton 45%(+1)

[Robbins]

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2319

18-44 year olds,men,and very Liberal give bernie the lead.

[morningfog]

1. Rec!

[in_cog_ni_to]

2. Great way to start the day! Go, Bernie!

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

[Jarqui]

3. First time the poll of polls for Iowa has Bernie in front +0.2

(ever so slightly - really a statistical tie)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html

So we're left with enthusiasm vs the Clinton ground game ...

[thesquanderer]

11. almost ALL the polls are statistical ties

including this one, since it has a 4 pt margin of error

[cannabis_flower]

50. Ah, the "statistical tie" fallacy

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/10/one-last-encore-great-statistical-tie-fallacy

[thesquanderer]

54. Thanks for that

So based on that table, since this poll shows Sanders ahead by 4 points with a 4 point MOE, the odds that he is really ahead is actually 84%. Pretty good odds, and you're right, better than a statistical tie... though still with about a 1-in-6 chance of being wrong, so I wouldn't quite bet the house on it.

[Fawke Em]

16. Snow is in the forecast.

I think enthusiasm will overcome ground game. If I'm enthused about my candidate versus just thinking "she's got it in the bag," I'm more likely to get out and vote/caucus.

[Jarqui]

21. I am so proud of this campaign

Months ago, whether he could win in Iowa was a big question. I felt he had to have it.

Here's we are in a statistical tie. He did it.

Whether he wins or loses Iowa now doesn't seem to matter as much. That's not a cop out. I'd love to see him do it. But I'm sincere. The key to Iowa and the reason "he had to have it" was making the nation sit up and take notice - to deliver some media coverage and momentum into the states that followed and to prove he could win. That would establish him as a credible candidate and give him momentum. Iowa hasn't even voted and there's no doubt, he's accomplished that mission. He's truly credible, has momentum and on his way to a competitive primary.

If he takes Iowa, that would be amazing and really hurt Clinton's campaign. He's going to win New Hampshire. The combination of those two wins means the media sits around wondering why Clinton can win for three weeks - a very good thing for Bernie. So a win in Iowa would be really BIG but I agree with Bernie - he doesn't HAVE to have it any more. It's a nicer place to be.

It's getting exciting.

[Le Taz Hot]

26. Actually, it's extremely important that he gets Iowa.

If he comes in second, even if it's by one point, all the pundits will have to say is, "See? We told you he was a loser!" If he nails Iowa AND New Hampshire that takes away a lot of their steam. They'll still be shilling for the corporate candidates because that's what they're paid to do but Bernie winning Iowa AND NH takes the wind out of their sails and pushes them faster towards earned obscurity.

[Jarqui]

29. I used to feel that way.

And this is very true:
"If he nails Iowa AND New Hampshire that takes away a lot of their steam."

I'd adjust this:
"all the pundits will have to say is, "See? We told you he was a loser!""

with "some of the pundits would say" - far from all.

Bernie wasn't getting any media coverage. That was killing his message because no one got to hear it. The general polls went up and down more with Hillary's Benghazi and email scandals than anything Bernie did - because the mainstream media wasn't telling folks about Bernie (look at the air times) - they were telling folks about Benghazi and the emails and Trump.

Now, they're looking at their ratings for the next few months. They're seeing 20,000 show up in Minnesota for this guy last night (= ratings they could have). "We could boost our viewership with this primary like we did with Obama-Clinton" and they'd be dangling the Shakespearean tragedy of Clinton falling short again (which would intrigue a bunch of the public who either love or hate Hillary).

The game is on. Even the Clinton campaign acknowledges that. Last summer, Bernie was a nuisance - not something they took seriously. They were going to dust him in the first couple of states. Suddenly, he has a national platform in the media and some sort of a real chance to knock her off (though Hillary still has to be regarded as a serious favorite - odds still heavily in her favor).

Now, I realize that if he wins Iowa, that's much bigger than losing by a point. It would be significant in the media. There's a whole lotta shudap behind an Iowa win. And it would improve his chances in the primary. No question. But it's no longer life and death for his campaign like it seemed last summer. That's the difference.

[Le Taz Hot]

33. Very good post.

I'm in California so am just now getting up. Plus, we're refinishing the hardwood floor and I think I'm buzzed from breathing in Stain all night so my writing chops are in shorthand mode (and 1/2 brain dead mode). Good post but I still disagree with you on the importance of Iowa. But thanks for a well-reasoned and well-written response.

[pangaia]

43. As I just said to jarqui,

I am glad for folks like you he/she.. actually trying to think and ponder objectively.

Be careful of those fumes.

[pangaia]

42. Very informative thoughts. Thank you...

I am glad for folks like you and La Taz Hot.. actually trying to think and ponder objectively.

[Robbins]

44. Here is the thing

even if clinton were to win by 1 or 2 points reality is despite having all the advantages she were to just barely win In iowa would
be terrable for her.It wouldn't stop bernie.

Now i think it is more likely that Bernie wins Iowa.just like going into Iowa in late 2007 I thought Obama would win.Now i wouldn't
have predicted clinton came in third and obama beat her by 8 points.

Bernie is surging like Kerry was In 2004 going into Iowa.it was once a laughable thought Kerry could win iowa.It was thought gephardht would win or later him or dean.

I supported dean in 2004 and Obama in 2008.Bernie's surge is more like both Kerry and Obama.I have been on wrong side of surge once so i can see what Is happening.Bernie has been working to get support In Iowa.

just Imagine monday night Bernie as winner.the guy who was once laughed at.and who pundits said would never go beyond 20 to 25 % support.Bernie winning would be even more impressive.

[Jarqui]

48. If Bernie wins Iowa, I will be euphoric

I just don't know how it's predictable at this point beyond it being close.

Obama led New Hampshire +8.3 and Hillary's GOTV team snatched it to win by +2.5. Bernie's lead in New Hampshire of +14.7 seems safe.

But Hillary's Iowa ground game, with a bunch of folks from Obama's campaign, could snatch or seal Iowa. It all depends on whether the enthusiasm for Sanders overwhelms the Clinton ground effort. I really don't know - particularly with caucuses and Clinton not being above dirty tricks.

If Sanders gets Iowa, Nevada, that I'm sure has tightened is in play or could get overrun with the momentum. Then her firewall is South Carolina. If her black support there crumbles, then it's open field running for Bernie into Super Tuesday.

A whole bunch of IFs - lots of ways it could play out.

But Iowa could be pivotal - really important - in terms of momentum shift. But probably more important for Hillary to hang on to now than a Sanders "must have". Sanders is the insurgent - a bunch of media will cut him some slack because of his position and growing popularity.

[Robbins]

52. I think her ground game may be overestimated

just as Clinton's attacks have been going into lying

Clinton instead of working iowa is going into private fundraisers thrisday and friday instead of working Iowa.that doesn't tell me
they are too focused on Iowa.their internals may be really bad.and polls show the attacks on bernie isn't working.

Clinton won NH in 2008 due to being vivtim.she was seen as being ganged on in NH debate after obama won iowa and she cried
In NH.she was able to play victim.that won't happen In NH In 2016.

I think it's going to be hard In SC.I think it's more likely she wins SC but if he can make it close that's a victory.

I say let's wait after NH before we see how SC is heading to.I do think Nevada win is possable.

[Jarqui]

53. Well, if she didn't put together a top team in Iowa for their ground game

then she doesn't deserve to be president.

I don't think Clinton has to do the ground game herself so going to a fundraising event isn't so terrible. Going to to a $1,000 per head fundraiser with Wall Streeters isn't smart just before Iowa - in the wake of so many accusations about Wall Street owning her. It does not look good - not smart.

That is part of the point here. A good leader learns from their mistakes. If she lets this happen again, I think her campaign will unravel faster this time. That's the real danger for her in Iowa. The money for her dries up as people lose confidence and Bernie's still getting his $30 donations per month like Obama ... it can snowball.

Having said that, I've read that she's got a bunch of Obama's people. They were really good people who factored significantly in Obama taking Iowa. So I can't readily dismiss their ability.

[Robbins]

62. Let's remember

she can hire obama vets but they lack this time something important.a great candiate.Bernie may not be obama but she sure isn't
obama.Bernie is closer to obama than she is.the young voters and indy supporting bernie now are very much like those supporting
Obama in runup to Iowa In 2008.

Clinton is already in negative mode she turned into in 2008 because they didn't see Obama coming and now they didn't take
Bernie seriously.In many ways this battle over wall street is what Iraq was In 2008.Some aren't over iraq with her.Plus she is to the right of obama on foregin Policy.few people take her seriously on she would be tougher on wall street.

[Jarqui]

63. So true: "but they lack this time something important.a great candidate"

She does not inspire. Look at her crowds. I think Rick Santorum pulled more into a bowling alley.

[Robbins]

65. Exactly

a lot of clinton supporters tend to be because she is woman or buying the only she can beat republicans which is losing in reality every day.

As those who doudt bernie's crowds will show up and vote.they said same thing about Obama.and they came out for him.

[Jarqui]

67. I have no doubt Bernie's supporters are coming out.

I don't know if he's another Obama that way in terms of numbers but his supporters are really pumped.

[pangaia]

59. But Hillary's Iowa ground game,

with a bunch of folks from Obama's campaign, could snatch or seal Iowa.

Plus corporate America, plus the media for umteen months, plus the DNC, plus Obama, plus the money changers, plus Brock & CO.,...

But, Bernie has the human beings...

[Jarqui]

60. There's no debating that point

[VulgarPoet]

4. k/r let's go Bernie

[HereSince1628]

5. What do you think? Is that OMalley supporters turning to a second choice?

or undecided coming to Sanders? I haven't an answer.

The estimate for undecided in Iowa has been inside the margin of error for weeks.

Viability is a formal hurdle in the Iowa caucuses and Iowans are well aware of that.

As this comes to the wire I would have thought things would be firming up rather more that that 19% percent who suggest their support is soft.

[thereismore]

24. Or Clinton's soft support switching to Sanders. nt

[HereSince1628]

69. Because I noticed OMalley dropped about as much as Sanders gained on the RCP graphic

I was thinking OMalley.

But you're right soft support could come from either OMalley or Clinton.

[ismnotwasm]

6. Fascinating

Regional DefinitionsContacts and InformationStaffSearch Releases
January 27, 2016 - Sanders-Clinton Close Race Frozen In Iowa, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Men, Very Liberals, Young Voters Back Sanders
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Additional Trend Information

With strong support from men, very liberal and younger voters, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders takes 49 percent of Iowa likely Democratic Caucus participants, with 45 percent for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and 4 percent for former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This is virtually unchanged from results of a January 12 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Sanders at 49 percent, with 44 percent for Clinton and 4 percent for O'Malley.

Today, 2 percent are undecided and 19 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.

The gender gap remains as men back Sanders 63 - 32 percent, while women back Clinton 54 - 40 percent.

Likely Democratic Caucus participants 18 to 44 years old back Sanders over Clinton 78 - 21 percent. Clinton is ahead 53 - 39 percent among voters 45 to 64 years old and 71 - 21 percent among voters over 65 years old.

[pangaia]

61. Why do you think men support Bernie 63-32,

and women back Hillary 54-40?

[tecelote]

7. Bernie is surging.

By the very nature of a surge, the advantage will only grow.

He's going to win NH and Iowa.

[Calista241]

8. The question is will Bernie supporters show up at the caucus?

I think it's an open question.

[HereSince1628]

10. That's always a question, and cuts both ways

Younger and older voters tend to thin out a bit if there is either bad weather or over-confidence.

The weather is looking OK in front of the caucus, with significant snow fall holding off until the 2nd.

And the race is close enough that over-confidence shouldn't be an issue.

[SammyWinstonJack]

12. Will Hillary supporters show up at the caucus?

See how that works?

[Calista241]

22. Yeah, but according to polls

Hillary's voters have shown up to caucus before. Bernie is counting on first time caucus goers for much of his support.

Sometimes i wish i lived in a caucus state, it'd definitely be an interesting experience. The caucus process seems to perpetuate the establishment candidates rather than rely on a straight up vote. I'd love to go there and put Bernie over the top, but alas, this will all be over and done with before Georgia will vote.

[Le Taz Hot]

27. Was it all over and done with for Georgia in 2008?

[daybranch]

28. The way I remember this, last time in a democratic caucus,

most of them were Obama and Edwards supporters not Hillary's. She sure does not inspire enthusiasm.

[demwing]

15. The answer is "Yes, they will"

I can't think of a single reason to suspect that they wouldn't.

[Calista241]

36. Not everyone cares as much about politics as you and I do. n/t

[Le Taz Hot]

34. Well, I don't know . . .

they've been working steadily since this summer knocking on doors, campaigning, fundraising, phone banking and tabling for Bernie, I find it difficult to believe that, after all that, they won't get out and caucus for the man.

[Calista241]

38. True, but I have worked in marketing in the past.

Generally, we expected 30%-50% of people to show up to events they've signed up for. If someone paid to attend an event, you can generally expect 50%-75% of them to show up.

Maybe i was just bad at marketing, but those were the generally expected industry standards.

It's one of the reasons i admire the phone banks, and other GOTV efforts. They're dealing with abysmal turn out rates. MSNBC said earlier today that less than 10% of Iowa turns out for the caucuses. In 2008; in a state of 3M people, in the best attended Iowa caucus event ever, 239,000 people showed up to caucus (8% of total population).

[demwing]

51. So apply the principle across candidates

there's no reason to focus only on Bernie's support

[beam me up scottie]

9. Millenial women prefer Bernie too.

Smart young ladies!

Check em out:

https://facebook.com/babesforbernie/

[SammyWinstonJack]

13. +1000000

[beam me up scottie]

14. I wish I could post some of their videos, very inspiring.

[demwing]

20. Here you go!

[beam me up scottie]

23. Thank you!

[pangaia]

45. That's a GREAT FB wall. :>)))

Makes me smile.

[beam me up scottie]

71. It's a happy place!

Whenever I get tired of reading the smears about Bernie here I go spend some time there.

[Tarc]

17. Margin of error +- 4%

[Perogie]

19. wow, nice you understand how statistics work.

[Tarc]

55. Yes, but apparently you do not

As this is a tie, not a lead.

[libdem4life]

56. Hillary says polls don't matter...that she pays no attention to them.

[SheenaR]

39. True

So, I guess what you are saying is he really could be up by more.. Nice.. Thanks!

[Loudestlib]

40. Yeah

Its been within the margin of error for the last several polls. That didn't stop Hillary supports from posting it when she was up.

It's probably more accurate to look at the trends then who is winning or losing. The trend has been Bernie up and Hillary down for the last few polls. People talk about how Bernie must win Iowa but really if Hillary can't put the breaks on Bernie's trend, and his supporters keep it up, she's going to lose.

n/t

[Plucketeer]

49. Un-huh

Come post this a week from today.

[Perogie]

18. A few things I noticed

1. Clinton only leads with incomes >$100k. That's down right Republican like numbers.
2. Bernie has huge lead in 1st time Caucus. Dems always talk about getting the youth involved and Dems win when youth votes.

The only thing that will hurt Sanders is if Clinton wins by double digits. I think Bernie will take Iowa, but even if he comes in second as long as it's only a few points behind Clinton it's a win. He went toe to toe with the Coronated one and did well. That's good momentum going into NH.

[Eric J in MN]

35. Do you think Bernie Sanders can win NV or SC?

If he narrowly loses IA, wins NH, and then loses NV and SC, then Hillary Clinton will be up 3-1 heading into Super Tuesday.

[SheenaR]

41. I can only speak as someone phonebanking

and speaking to others involved... He can win Nevada. South Carolina will be very tough. If he gets out of the first three 2-1 or 3-0, then that's a whole different story. It's unfortunate for all sides, but Super Tuesday states will largely be influenced by what happens early just by way of human nature.

[rurallib]

25. pretty sure this is the Q poll I participated in

FWIW.

The only one that counts is Monday's. Looks like the forecast for snow is being pushed back so we can expect a big turnout.
Hope our facility is big enough.

[merrily]

32. Frickin' DWS arranged for snow?

[d_b]

30. yesh

[merrily]

31. Thanks, Robbins.

[retrowire]

37. hillary supporters used to cite quinnipiac all the time nt

[Plucketeer]

46. Whoa Baby!

Better to wake up to than my coffee!

[Duval]

47. Wow! Great news. Thanks Robbins.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

57. He we go! Here we go! Here we go!

Win Iowa, here we go!

[Jarqui]

58. I was curious as I often am to check a poll's demographics

In 2008 Iowa primary exit polls, 57% women, 43% men voted

In this poll, I'm calculating 59% women and 41% men - sex demographics favor Clinton.

If we used the 2008 age demographics from the Iowa primary exit polls, Bernie would lead in this poll 51-44. So the age demographics in this poll also favor Clinton.

From that, in light of the demographics, one might argue that Bernie is probably leading by more than the +4 - beyond the margin of error.

I also glanced at the CBS Yougov poll that had Bernie +1 and again found the age and sex demographics compared to the 2008 Iowa primary favored Clinton.

[Robbins]

64. Thing is

Young women support bernie it's the older 45+ who support clinton.of course there is a general view based on demos.bernie has some support with older woman but they seem to prefer clinton overall.there are probally some younger woman who like clinton but overall younger women like bernie better.in fact survery have turned up bernie is liked more by young woman than young men.

I feel the CNN Iowa poll of bernie leading 51 to 44 may be the most likely to match reality monday night.

[Jarqui]

66. I hope you're right

I have to say that nearly every poll I've checked into, the demographics seem to lean Clinton (not all but it's so frequent, it has me distrusting them some). The Clinton campaign seems to have reaches into the media, the polling companies, their national committee and their elected members more than any campaign I can ever recall.

I think Bernie is up against a bigger wall than I've ever seen. All the more reason to be impressed by what he's done.

[RoccoR5955]

68. I hope it was scientific enough

for the Clinton supporters.

[workinclasszero]

70. MoE + or - 4

We will see who shows up at the caucuses.

GOTV will win.