Brand Spanking New Iowa Poll-It is Clinton 48% Sanders 40% O'Malley 7%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Clinton still leads Iowa; O'Malley Backers Could Help Sanders

PPP's new Iowa Democratic poll, conducted in partnership with Progress Iowa, continues to find Hillary Clinton holding a modest lead in the state. She's at 48% to 40% for Bernie Sanders and 7% for Martin O'Malley. There's been little movement since our last poll two and a half weeks ago- Clinton's support is up 2 points, O'Malley's is down 1, and Sanders is steady.

One thing that will likely cause things to tighten up on Monday night is that O'Malley's supporters are far more likely to move to Sanders than Clinton at the sites where he fails to meet the 15% threshold. 57% of O'Malley voters say Sanders is their second choice to only 27% who say it's Clinton. We found something similar on our last poll, when O'Malley voters said they'd pick Sanders over Clinton 43/20. So just based on the reallocation of O'Malley voters, Sanders can expect to make up a couple points of his deficit.

One finding on this poll that's encouraging for Clinton is that 88% of her voters say they're firmly committed to supporting her, compared to 74% who say the same for Sanders. When you look at the race just among voters who have completely made up their minds, Clinton's lead expands to 17 points at 56/39. Sanders is up 55/31 with folks who say they may yet change sides.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/01/clinton-still-leads-iowa-omalley-backers-could-help-sanders.html

[NCTraveler]

1. Looking solid with the last couple of polls.

If Clinton gets the same amount of support, this could be close to a county by county landslide for her. It doesn't seem a lot of people are aware of how this works.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Senator Sanders has been a fierce competitor.

I just want a win.

[NCTraveler]

11. No doubt about that.

Far too many people read the main numbers and the analysis stops there. If there is any accuracy with the last couple of polls, which I'm not making the claim there is, it's huge for Clinton. If the same number of people show up on Monday night for Clinton and Sanders, I predict Clinton comes out of Iowa with more than a little win. That is me actually saying this is good even if Sanders has more than the polls are showing.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. If there wasn't an internet I would probably like Senator Sanders more.

[pandr32]

2. Woo-hoo!

[JudyM]

3. Dupe post.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511089305

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Thank you for bringing that to my attention, madame.

Anything that is worth saying once is worth saying twice.

[book_worm]

4. Good result, now we will see the final big poll the DM Register on Saturday night.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Ms. Selzer is a fine pollster, indeed.

But I will have to weigh her results against the aggregate, whatever she finds. That's the scientific approach and method.

[NurseJackie]

6. This day just keeps getting better and better!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Getting better all the time

Nice cover

[Iliyah]

8. K & R

[Beacool]

10. I think that at this point it can go either way.

The important factor, more than actually winning or losing, is the delegate count. I think that Hillary will get a fair amount of pledged delegates, even if she loses the state. IA is more about the way the race will go than the actual importance of the caucus itself. Winning for Sanders makes him a viable candidate who will give Hillary a longer fight for the nomination. For Hillary a win means that Sanders can be put away sooner.

In the long run, I think that Hilary will prevail and be the nominee.

[Nanjeanne]

13. Looking at the demographics

Which you have to click on the results link at bottom of article

I feel quite confident that Sanders is going to do great.

Breakdown shows 18-29 years only 16%. sanders sweet spot. But 46-65 is 39% and over 65 is 24%. Also demo is more weighted to female than male 58 to 42%. And 80% landlines and only 20% who had to use Internet to respond.

So as with all polling, demographics should be analyzed. I say it's one close race but certainly not any kind of surge for Clinton happening here.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. 2008 Iowa exit polls indicate the gender breakdown was 57% Female/43% Male

female than male 58 to 42%

Madame, the 2008 Iowa exit polls indicate the gender breakdown was 57% Female/43% Male, ergo:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#IA

[Nanjeanne]

29. And your point is . . . nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. My point. . . , madame, is you suggested the gender breakdown was anomalous.

And your point is . . . nt

My point . . . , madame, is you suggested the gender breakdown was anomalous. Thank you for allowing me to share with you the fact it wasn't.


With all due regards,

DemocratSinceBirth

[Nanjeanne]

32. You posted a poll from 2008 about Obama

I thought the Hillary supporters were convinced women supported Hillary more than Sanders. I tend to agree - thus the weight of this recent poll being more women than men is a factor when discussing . . . I don't know . . . maybe these two candidates?

And please stop with the condescending Madame.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. I regret that you find my salutations condescending.

And please stop with the condescending Madame

I regret that you find my polite salutations condescending. How would you like to be addressed?

If you refer to me as "Sir" I promise I will not take it as an affront as I would not take it as an affront from anybody who addressed me that way.


That being said, I thought you were suggesting the gender breakdown was anomalous. If that wasn't your intent then I regret inferring/implying it was.


With all due regards,

DemocratSinceBirth

[bvf]

14. Someone's not paying attention.

From the link:

Sanders leads 52/37 with voters under 30 and 49/36 with voters between 30 and 45, but more than makes up for that with a 65/24 advantage among seniors.

[Lorien]

20. But remember, according to Hillary supporters

POLLS DON'T MATTER! They're above worrying about polls or ever voting in them, don't you know.

[leftynyc]

21. And when the kiddies

get off their asses and vote with any regularity, they'll be taken more seriously.

[bvf]

35. You completely missed the point. Read.

[leftynyc]

38. I didn't miss anything

Every 4 years we go through this and I'm tired of pinning my hopes on those who only vote if it's convenient and fits into their day.

[bvf]

40. OK, but you're still talking as if you didn't read.

Suit yourself.

[leftynyc]

41. No - you don't understand

that Bernie goes NOWHERE without the youth vote. That's the point.

[bvf]

42. *Sigh*

m/v

[thereismore]

16. Good, I'm glad. Helps lull Clinton's supporters and energizes Bernie's.

[workinclasszero]

17. Wow!

Hillary is goin to bring home the victory in Iowa!

[SheenaR]

19. Most surprising thing about this poll

Is that they found 680 people with a landline phone.

If Ann Selzer says it's 48-40 and that there will be less than 60% first time caucusers (her prediction a few weeks ago), then I will be very concerned.

[litlbilly]

22. PPP poll, correct the record, David Brock. What a surprise, Hillary is winning...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. She is also leading in five of the last seven polls released

She is also leading in five of the last seven polls released:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-iowa-presidential-democratic-caucus


But thank you for bringing that kernel of information to my attention.


Respectfully,

DemocratSinceBirth

[mcar]

23. K&R

[MoonRiver]

25. Just loving this upward movement!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. I don't know but I feel like playing this song

She was beautiful.

[MoonRiver]

28. When, much, younger, I was told I resembled her.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

34. Oh my./nt

[kennetha]

27. K&R

[Gothmog]

30. Thanks for posting

[FSogol]

36. Iowa fight song? Here's an omen: #10 University of Maryland beat #3 Iowa in BB last night.

[leftynyc]

39. Whoo Hoo!!!

My niece goes to U of Maryland and she's gotten so excited by basketball this year.

[Alfresco]

37. Good News

Hopefully the DMR Selzer poll tomorrow afternoon will reflect this surge of realism.

[thesquanderer]

43. Another bad poll, off by more than their 3.4% margin of error

Like the Gravis one... even allowing for the fact that caucus results don't directly mirror the actual vote, this wasn't even close. And this was conducted Jan 26-27, so pretty darn close to the election day.

Pollsters and stock brokers... good businesses, they get paid whether they're right or wrong.